2010 Springer Forecast

[huntnphool]

WDFW NEWS RELEASE
Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife
600 Capitol Way North, Olympia, WA 98501-1091
http://wdfw.wa.gov/

December 10, 2009

Contacts: Cindy LeFleur, WDFW, (360) 906-6708
               Stuart Ellis, CRITFIC, (503) 731-1312
               Tony Nigro, ODFW, (971) 673-6082

Note to news media: This news release is issued jointly by the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife, the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife and the Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission. 

Fishery managers predict 470,000 Columbia River spring Chinook in 2010

SALEM, Ore. - The technical committee advising Columbia River fishery managers has released its forecast for the 2010 spring chinook run. If the fish show up as projected, the forecast of 470,000 spring chinook would be the largest return to the Columbia since 1938.

The forecasted run is up significantly from last year’s final run of 169,300 fish.

Because of challenges in forecasting the spring chinook returns in recent years, members of the Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) had to reconsider the model they have used in past years to predict the number of returning fish.

According to Stuart Ellis, current chair of the TAC and fisheries scientist of the Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission (CRITFC), committee members were leery of the record number of spring chinook "jacks" counted at Bonneville Dam in 2009. Jacks are immature, precocious males that return after just one or two years in the ocean.

In the past few years, forecasts relying heavily on jack counts from the previous season had overstated the actual return of adult fish by an average of 45 percent. An accurate preseason forecast is necessary to set commercial and recreational harvest levels that meet treaty obligations under U.S. v Oregon and conservation mandates to protect fish runs listed under the federal Endangered Species Act.

Ellis said this year the committee considered several additional models that took into account other factors such as ocean conditions.

"The number of jacks that returned in 2009 was four times greater than anything we’ve seen before, which made the number a statistical anomaly," Ellis said. "At the same time, we know the environment for young salmon appears to be changing and we needed to account for that."

"We’re still projecting a strong return for upriver spring chinook salmon next year, but we needed to temper last year’s jack return with other indicators of spring chinook abundance," he added.

The seven models chosen by TAC generated a range of predicted run sizes from 366,000 to 528,000 adults. The committee members agreed on 470,000 as an average of the models.  This forecast will now be used by the managers to develop preseason fishing plans.

The Technical Advisory Committee was established under the US v. Oregon and includes representatives from Oregon, Idaho and Washington fish and wildlife departments, the Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission (on behalf of the Nez Perce tribe, the Umatilla tribe, the Warm Springs tribe and the Yakama Nation,) the Shoshone-Bannock tribe, the National Marine Fisheries Commission and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 

[rougheye]

seems like i read something like this every year . nay probably just me 

[SkookumHntr]

-Ya we will see, but sounds good so far!

[fishcrazy]

Not holding my breath!!!

I wouldn't be surprised if the run is way down due to so many fish returning as jacks last year.

It might have something to do with the hatchery feed being different and causing them to return as jacks.


Kris

[fc2038]

Yup not holding my breath. I will believe it when I see it. Otherwise SSDD.....

[BigGoonTuna]

as usual, we'll probably get half that if we're lucky, and the rivers i actually fish(cowlitz and kalama) will probably get a thousand fish between the two.

[Huntbear]

Hopefully the upriver run is huge, that would mean lots of fish in Drano, and the mouth of the Wind River.   

[Dmanmastertracker]

 That's awesome, we need to thank our Canadian friends some for this, they cut back harvest dramatically the last two years on coastal chinook headed back to Wa. and further south. I may actually have to get out and try it this year .

[Tealer]

I did well last season, with half the number they are forcasting. So if this comes true it will be a spectacular season.

[cohoho]

I hope they are right with the forecast....  Would make for a extremely fun year...

[shoot-em-dead]

I might have to move back to the wet side.

[fishcrazy]

Hopefully the upriver run is huge, that would mean lots of fish in Drano, and the mouth of the Wind River.   

That is the up river forcast.


Kris

[Ripper]

  I read that today in the Everett Harold. I've never fished the Columbia down there in my boat, but if the forcast is even close to being correct, I'll have to go. Anyone want to go out in my boat and show me the ropes? 18' Smokercraft.

[huntnphool]

WDFW NEWS RELEASE
Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife
600 Capitol Way North, Olympia, WA 98501-1091
http://wdfw.wa.gov/

February 18, 2010

Contact: Cindy LeFleur, WDFW, (360) 906-6708

Columbia River spring chinook season
reflects extraordinary promise, caution

OLYMPIA - Fishery managers from Washington and Oregon today adopted fishing seasons for this year’s spring chinook fishery on the Columbia River, where the prized salmon are projected to return in the largest numbers since at least 1938.

Encouraged by a forecast of 559,900 returning fish, both states approved regulations that will provide Columbia River anglers with a full range of fishing opportunities above and below Bonneville Dam in March and April.

Last year, 222,000 spring chinook returned to the river.   

But after watching spring chinook runs fall short of expectations for the past two years, fishery managers exercised caution in setting fishing seasons below the dam.  In calculating the number of fish available for harvest, they set aside a 40 percent "buffer" until the forecast can be verified by data collected once the run is under way.   

If the forecast proves accurate, both recreational and commercial fisheries will get additional time on the lower river, said Guy Norman, southwest regional director for the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW).

"This approach gives us the flexibility to match fishing opportunities to the actual size of the run," Norman said.  "As we’ve seen in the past two years, it can create real problems when runs fall short of expectations." 

Norman said the 40 percent buffer on the estimated run size is designed to ensure that enough spring chinook pass upstream to meet obligations to tribal and non-tribal fisheries upriver from Bonneville Dam.  It will also help to keep incidental impacts on wild chinook listed for protection under the federal Endangered Species Act within allowable limits, he said.

As in previous years, only hatchery-reared fish marked with a clipped adipose fin and a healed scar may be retained.  All wild spring chinook, identifiable by an intact adipose fin, must be released unharmed. 

Norman said an update to the run forecast will likely be completed in early May, or when about half the fish have passed Bonneville Dam.   

Until then, the recreational fishing seasons for spring chinook salmon established for March and April are:

Buoy 10 upstream to the I-5 Bridge: Seven days per week from March 1 through April 18, except closed on the following Tuesdays: March 9, 16, 23 and 30. 
I-5 Bridge upstream to I-205 Bridge: Seven days per week from March 1-14, except closed on Tuesday March 9. Beginning March 18 through April 3, fishing will be limited to three days per week, Thursday through Saturday.
I-205 Bridge upstream to Bonneville Dam: Bank angling only, seven days per week from March 1-14, except closed on Tuesday March 9. Beginning March 18 through April 3, fishing will be limited to three days per week, Thursday through Saturday.
Bonneville Dam to McNary Dam: Seven days per week from March 16 through May 31. Bank fishing only from Bonneville Dam upstream to the Tower Island power lines, six miles downstream from The Dalles Dam.
Anglers fishing below Bonneville Dam will be allowed to retain one adult spring chinook salmon per day, while those fishing above the dam can retain two per day.

Although spring chinook salmon do not begin to enter the Columbia River in large numbers until mid-March, some catches have already been reported.  Until March 1, the fishery is open under regulations described in the 2009-10 Fishing in Washington rule pamphlet ( http://wdfw.wa.gov/fish/regs/fishregs.htm ).

As outlined in the rule pamphlet, anglers may retain shad and hatchery steelhead when fishing is open for spring chinook salmon.     

[Blacklab]

I-205 Bridge upstream to Bonneville Dam: Bank angling only, seven days per week from March 1-14, except closed on Tuesday March 9. Beginning March 18 through April 3, fishing will be limited to three days per week, Thursday through Saturday.

Thats gonna piss alot of peeps off