Mule deer permit hunt

[jackelope]

Right...with the multiplier, I don't know how you can accurately calculate the odds. Some seem to think you can but I've never been able to figure it out...way too many variables. I'm all ears if someone wants to explain it to me...I used to be a math geek.

[Bigshooter]

I have saw a website by wdfw that shows who put in for what unit and how many points they had and who drew the tag.  Bobcat is pretty good at finding and posting information like that maybe he will again?   

[bobcat]

I know points are squared, but what if the average number of points each applicant has is equal to what you have? It's like not having points at all. To really have a big advantage you need to have more than the average number of points. If he said he had 30 points then I'd agree he could feel confident in drawing.

But the fact is, last year out of 1854 applicants for the Pearrygin permit, only 15 of those drew it. That is 1,839 who did not draw. With only 9 points odds of drawing Pearrygin are still extremely low. To put it in perspective I think it helps to think of it in terms of how many years it takes to draw a permit, based on the odds (not considering points). So as I said, for Pearrygin, a person should draw it once in 124 years of applying.

Another way to look at it is that your odds of drawing a moose tag are about the same.

[Bigshooter]

I agree with bobcat it's simple odds.  Not exactly right but pretty close.

[Skyvalhunter]

But you still don't know how many points all those other 1839 people had. If he wants a truly once in a lifetime animal put in for a quality area and not an area where he might stumble across a sub par buck and burn up his points. He has as good of shooting a nice buck in the regular season  as hunting in a higher average draw unit. The odds might be simple but the bucks just aren't there

[jackelope]

http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/permits/results/results.php?Species=DEER

[jackelope]

Average guy drew Pearygin last year with 7 points.

[Skyvalhunter]

Go for it if you feel lucky

[bobcat]

Any of the Chelan or Okanogan County permits are going to be good hunts. With only 9 points I would be applying for the hunts with the best odds. That eliminates Pearrygin. But that's just me. If you only apply for the most popular permits every year, there's a good chance you will NEVER draw a permit in your lifetime.

[Bigshooter]

Thats not the page I was hoping someone would post    The page I want will show how many people with 15 points put in followed by 14,13,12, and so on.  Plus it shows you how many tags out of each point class drew.

[jackelope]

1106 pearrygin  was a whitetail hunt.

[tjgerm]

Ok I've based my confidence on what wdfw posts (average points for tags drawn). So i've been humbled I've been putting in for ghost hunts to accumilate points in hope that one day I could draw a tag where I would have an opportunity at a very large Mule deer without all the pressure you see during general. Now back to the question. I now want to use the points that I have accumilated in attempt to try and draw a permit tag. Since the odds are very slim that you might not even draw once in a lifetime what would your number one selection be on your ballot?

[bobcat]

The average number of points for people who drew doesn't mean anything, at least not as far as your odds of drawing. What you need to know is the average number of points of everybody that applied for that permit. Then you could calculate your odds. The thing to think about is how many people DID NOT draw who had 7 points (or more)

[jackelope]

Any of the Chelan or Okanogan County permits are going to be good hunts. With only 9 points I would be applying for the hunts with the best odds. That eliminates Pearrygin. But that's just me. If you only apply for the most popular permits every year, there's a good chance you will NEVER draw a permit in your lifetime.

But he has 2 more points than what it took to draw it last year on average. I can't figure out how Pearrygin is eliminated in your theory. I may be overthinking this...it happens.

[bobcat]

Ok I've based my confidence on what wdfw posts (average points for tags drawn). So i've been humbled I've been putting in for ghost hunts to accumilate points in hope that one day I could draw a tag where I would have an opportunity at a very large Mule deer without all the pressure you see during general. Now back to the question. I now want to use the points that I have accumilated in attempt to try and draw a permit tag. Since the odds are very slim that you might not even draw once in a lifetime what would your number one selection be on your ballot?

Put down Pearrying for your #1 and then pick the permit with the best odds of drawing for your #2 choice.