Mule deer permit hunt

[jackelope]

Since the odds are very slim that you might not even draw once in a lifetime what would your number one selection be on your ballot?

No offense but the odds of someone posting an answer to your question is slim.
I drew my permit last year with 4 points. Turned out to not be as awesome a hunt as I was hoping for but it could be for the right guy and the right weather. I just got lucky. My mule deer I killed is not "very large" either.

[tjgerm]

So on your ballot if you were looking for the best chance of harvesting a once in a lifetime mule deer. ZYour telling me you would choose Pearragin

[Bigshooter]

Any of the Chelan or Okanogan County permits are going to be good hunts. With only 9 points I would be applying for the hunts with the best odds. That eliminates Pearrygin. But that's just me. If you only apply for the most popular permits every year, there's a good chance you will NEVER draw a permit in your lifetime.

But he has 2 more points than what it took to draw it last year on average. I can't figure out how Pearrygin is eliminated in your theory. I may be overthinking this...it happens.

I'll bet there were close to 700 plus people that applied with 7 or more points.  With only 15 tags given out in the Pearrygin your odds are still just 1 in 46.

[bobcat]

Any of the Chelan or Okanogan County permits are going to be good hunts. With only 9 points I would be applying for the hunts with the best odds. That eliminates Pearrygin. But that's just me. If you only apply for the most popular permits every year, there's a good chance you will NEVER draw a permit in your lifetime.

But he has 2 more points than what it took to draw it last year on average. I can't figure out how Pearrygin is eliminated in your theory. I may be overthinking this...it happens.

Tons of people had more than 7 points and they didn't get drawn. I guess I wouldn't totally eliminate Pearrygin, but like I said in my last post, I would put it for #1 and then an easier draw for #2. But really it just depends on if a person is willing to wait or if he wants to hunt THIS YEAR.

[bobcat]

So on your ballot if you were looking for the best chance of harvesting a once in a lifetime mule deer. ZYour telling me you would choose Pearragin

No, I would probably pick a couple of the Chelan GMU's. But Pearrygin sure isn't a bad choice either. And I recall one of the nicest bucks I've seen posted and it came out of Chewuch. So flip a coin I guess. They can all be good.

[6x6in6]

I'm kinda with Bobcat and a little with Skyv on this.

Here's about as close to an approximate guesstimate which i use for my own somewhat sane mathematical purpose.  chuckle
1854 applicants.
A LOT of those I'm assuming have 1 or 2 and hoping for the hail Mary.
Some have max.  Some have sub 1, sub 2 of max.
So I just use the number 5 as a baseline, for no better purpose than to make me feel good with my 10 points.  LOL
25 (the square of 5) X 1854 = 39600
39600 Divided by the OP's 81 (9 squared) = 1/488
488
He has 1/488 chance.

So yeah, by my twisted method, the OP has about 4 times the life of Bobcats 124 years to go, with his 1/488.
Damn, we are gonna be old for those whose luck sucks.  chuckle

Moral, there is no rhyme or reason to draw odds in this state.  It's flat out luck no matter how many point you have.

[tjgerm]

I'm content on staying on the west side and hunting blacktail until my time comes up for a one time hunt I would only put one GMU on my ballot. The GMU were my odds of harvesting a huge trophy would be the best.

[Curly]

I think the important thing to think about with the average number of points to draw..........is that with such a low number of permits, statistically the numbers don't mean a lot when talking about an average.  It only takes one lucky *censored* to draw his permit with 1 point to throw the average out the window.  (If that makes any sense).

[6x6in6]

The average is just an average for the lucky.  There is no correlation between winners and their points.  It's just luck.

[Bigshooter]

I'm content on staying on the west side and hunting blacktail until my time comes up for a one time hunt I would only put one GMU on my ballot. The GMU were my odds of harvesting a huge trophy would be the best.

I would put down two choices.  There are about 10 or more late mule deer hunts that can make dreams come true.

[6x6in6]

I'm content on staying on the west side and hunting blacktail until my time comes up for a one time hunt I would only put one GMU on my ballot. The GMU were my odds of harvesting a huge trophy would be the best.

I'm content on going out of state where having points actually relates to a mathematical computation resulting in a legitimate opportunity draw a tag.
Washington's weighted points system blows!!!!!!

[Bigshooter]

I'm content on staying on the west side and hunting blacktail until my time comes up for a one time hunt I would only put one GMU on my ballot. The GMU were my odds of harvesting a huge trophy would be the best.

By the way what is a huge trophy for you?

[bobcat]

I think the important thing to think about with the average number of points to draw..........is that with such a low number of permits, statistically the numbers don't mean a lot when talking about an average.  It only takes one lucky *censored* to draw his permit with 1 point to throw the average out the window.  (If that makes any sense).

That's exactly right. It would be different if there were 900 permits with 1800 applications. In that case the average number of points it took to draw would mean something.

Just like in 2009, the first year they had those modern firearm elk permits in September for some eastside GMU's.  A friend of mine drew Observatory- there was only 1 permit and I think around three to four THOUSAND applications for that hunt. He drew it with, I believe 5 points. So the average points to draw that hunt was 5. Does that mean if you applied in 2010 with 5 points you should "be confident" in drawing? Hell no! Your odds are still something like 1 in 3500.

That's a good example of why the average points to draw doesn't mean squat.

[jackelope]

I'm content on staying on the west side and hunting blacktail until my time comes up for a one time hunt I would only put one GMU on my ballot. The GMU were my odds of harvesting a huge trophy would be the best.

How huge is huge? 170? 190? bigger?
a 170" buck is a big buck in this state. I think we saw on this forum...2 bucks that were reported to be 200" on here last season? Maybe only a couple more that were bigger than 190...

[Bigshooter]

I'm content on staying on the west side and hunting blacktail until my time comes up for a one time hunt I would only put one GMU on my ballot. The GMU were my odds of harvesting a huge trophy would be the best.

I'm content on going out of state where having points actually relates to a mathematical computation resulting in a legitimate opportunity draw a tag.
Washington's weighted points system blows!!!!!!

Now 3/4 or better of the guys on MM would disagree with you.  They all think that Nevada's style system is the best.