Cougar harvest reports 2010 update. (population est update)

[Kain]

Shorter season has definitely lowered cougar harvest numbers. Im sure that is no surprise but is this the results the WDFW were hoping for?

Year   Female   Total cats            Source
2010     78          165            http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2010/reports/cougar.php
2009     72          142            http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/reports/cougar.php
2008    106          188            http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2008/reports/cougar.php
2007    100          201            http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2007/cougar.php
2006     96          200            http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2006/cougar.php
2005     78          202            http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2005/cougar.php
2004    102          208            http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2004/cougar.pdf



 

[1Shot2Kills]

I take that extra 2009 was really 2010?

[Kain]

I take that extra 2009 was really 2010?

Oops.  Thanks I changed it.

[luvtohnt]

I would say with a minimal number in the difference (14%) for 2009 and 2010 has more to do with the amount of time people could afford to spend in the field. However it does happen to coinside with the change to cougar permits, so maybe the change lowered the overall harvest. Without data like the total number of hunter hours we may never know.

Brandon

[JimmyHoffa]

I would agree about time available to be in the field.  My area received quite a bit of snow this year making it more than difficult to get up the roads where I need to go.  In fact it has only been in the last week that I've finally been able to get to the trails.  Forced me to try lower unscouted areas.
Interesting to note in those numbers the females seem to hold at around half of the take.  I was under the impression that WDFW would like the take to be more and more male (which I think only the houndsmen can really implement).  Do they have cougar take 'goals' that you know of?  Also seemed like depredation numbers are about the same.

[Kain]

Average harvest before shorter weapon specific seasons was 199.8 cats.  Average for the last two years is 153.5  I know two years is not really enough to get a good average but that is almost a 25% drop.  I am just wondering if that is in line with how many they were looking to reduce.
 

[Kain]

The units that still have a general season that goes until March 31.

          Total cats taken
2010    24
2009    45
2008    46
2007    48
2006    54
2005    36
2004    36

2009 the number was right in line with past years but last year harvest was almost half.  Is this due to the weapon specific seasons or other factors?  Strange.

[DeerThug]

So first this number does not include the kills by wdfw.

And 165 cats across the state is nothing.

When they shot the yearling cat in my backyard do the math.  Figure he was just kicked out of a litter.  Figure there were three.  minus him =2.  + his mom back to 3.  Had to be a tom = 1 now at 4.  The factor that kicks the kittens out is that the mom is bred.  If she has 3 now we are at 7. That is last summer.  Take one
of his litter mates is a female that will have kittens this spring - say she will raise 3 we are now at 10 cats. 
 This is 1 mile from the 40th ave bimart in Yakima.    Luckily there are enough deer goats and calves to feed them.  They found a dead deer on Sunties Golf Course.... last fall. But what happens when they eat them all.

No wonder there are cats in houses being built in the tricities and under  porches in
Wenatchee.

WDFW is way off base in cat management.

[Kain]

The numbers do include depredation and "other".  Is that different than what the WDFW kill?

[Kain]

The estimated population went from 2500-3500 in 2002 to a current estimate of 1900-2100 (excluding kittens).  It looks like the average harvest per year since 2002 is around 200 cats.  Thats about 10% +/-.  There has got to be more kittens born than 10%?   The WDFW admits that the numbers are hard to estimate and might not be accurate but if the population is declining that fast it is not from over harvesting by (legal) hunters. IMO.   If the population is stable or is declining the new regs should definitely turn that around within a very short time.  With the number of kittens that are not being counted, and the number of adult females and a lower harvest we should see an increase in population within two years.  That increase should be exponential after that.  Hopefully WDFW is ready to react to the increased population before it get too high and reduces some of the restrictions on hunters.

I did some math based off this study and this is what I came up with for population.
https://research.wsulibs.wsu.edu:8443/dspace/bitstream/2376/1033/1/v76%20p15%20Keister%20Jr.%20and%20Van%20Dyke.PDF
Estimated population 1900-2100 (kittens excluded)
Female/Male ratio 50/50. Could be higher males in Washington do to more females being harvested. But with only ~200 cats being harvested and an estimate of 60% of those being female the difference would only be ~20 less females than males from the year before. 
http://wdfw.wa.gov/publications/00433/wdfw00433.pdf Page 85

So out of 950-1050 females 75% would breeding age. 
712.5-787.5 females with an annual pregnancy rate of 63%.  448.9-496.1 females will have an average of 2.4 kittens.
That is 1077-1191 new kittens.
Adjusted for mortality of 31% (this includes the kittens dieing due to the mother dieing) would be 743-822 new kittens in a year.

[mulehunter]

Kain, what I think what happen is 2010 winter with worst economy on all hunters.  I could easily treed over 40 if I feel like but only went 11 days. It still killing my wallet. Maybe this winter will go back.to normal since market is building up.
I have crossed over 100 plus tracks last winter. Seriously Lots lots cats out there. Just need someone who serious hunting but I maybe wrong.
I treed three females it has more than two kittens each. And I crossed one cut with four kitten and one mother while I go for long long walk with H-w member, one day I found 7 cougars cuts other day on sled about 40 miles two canyons.  Way too many out there. I don't know why only 25 harvest. Maybe most county closed and general hunter wish to hunt same place but it only for special permit. Maybe what I think it hard on general hunter.

Hopefully they decide to set five county this fall with hounds.
 
 

We will see how it go this coming winter.

Mulehunter.

[Kain]

I dont doubt that the economy and weather has effects on hunters but the harvest numbers are better than the year before and Im sure weather must have been a factor in some previous years.

I got the kitten average from the study I supplied.  Cougars can have from 1-6 kittens but the average is 2.4  They can have a new litter every 19 months or basically 2 litters for every three years.

[Machias]

Honestly I think their estimates are spit in the wind guessing, they have NO idea how many lions reside in this state.   

[Special T]

Kains  basic math show us there should be many more cougers than what the WDFW says. And since they seem to have no real scientific explanation for how thye come up with the number I would say yes Machias they are spitting in the wind...

[Kain]

I agree a bunch of BS guessing.    In 2002 the numbers were estimated at 2500-3500 and conflicts were so bad they had to implement the pilot cougar hunting program in 2004.  But in 2003 they started using the 1900-2100 that they are still using today.  Does that make any sense to any of you?  A bunch of crap if you ask me.

No reliable estimate of statewide cougar abundance is
available for Washington. In 2003, two techniques
were used to provide an approximate range of
statewide cougar abundance. A rough estimate from
population reconstruction indicated that the minimum
number of cougars in Washington might be around
900 animals. An extrapolation across the state with
the highest cougar density reported in the literature
suggested the maximum number of cougars in
Washington might be around 4,100 animals. Since
2003, cougar population size has been assessed in three project areas in Washington. Currently,
the best available estimate of statewide abundance is from an extrapolation from those projects,
corresponding to about 1,900 to 2,100 animals (excluding kittens).

If there was only 2000 lions in the entire state we would never see so many trail cam pictures, sighting and conflicts.

Notice they are all cougars?  We need to start raising some hell with the department especially with hound hunting off the table.

Dangerous Wildlife Incidents in Washington in the last 30 days

April 23, 2011 – Leavenworth, Chelan County (Cougar)
April 23, 2011 – Albion, Whitman County (Cougar)
April 22, 2011 – Toledo, Lewis County (Cougar)
April 21, 2011 – Manson, Chelan County (Cougar)
April 20, 2011 – Medical Lake, Spokane County (Cougar)
April 19, 2011 – Fall City, King County (Cougar)
April 18, 2011 – Pomeroy, Garfield County (Cougar)
April 17, 2011 – Deer Park, Stevens County (Cougar)
April 15, 2011 – Lyle, Klickitat County (Cougar)
April 13, 2011 – Washougal, Clark County (Cougar)
April 13, 2011 – Newport, Pend Oreille County (Cougar)
April 13, 2011 – Valley, Stevens County (Cougar)
April 11, 2011 – Eatonville, Pierce County (Cougar)
April 11, 2011 – Wenatchee, Chelan County (Cougar)
April 11, 2011 – Wenatchee, Chelan County (Cougar)
April 7, 2011 – Centerville, Klickitat County (Cougar)
April 7, 2011 – Centerville, Klickitat County (Cougar)
April 6, 2011 – Colville, Stevens County (Cougar)
April 6, 2011 – Ariel, Cowlitz County (Cougar)
April 6, 2011 – Colville, Stevens County (Cougar)