This yrs permits

[grundy53]

I just hope he gets drawn this year so he will shut up. Every thread that even hints at special permits he starts complaining....

[bobcat]

Can't we at least wait till the draw is over to complain about how unfair it is?

I've waited 16 years, I would think that is long enough to have the right to start complaining don't you think?

Try dividing the number of applicants for a permit, by the number of permits. Apply for the one with the best odds. You will probably draw, with 16 points. If you're going for a hunt that has 1 permit and 4000 applicants, you very likely will never draw in your lifetime.

[trophyhunt]

I just hope he gets drawn this year so he will shut up. Every thread that even hints at special permits he starts complaining....

Whatever, I doudt you have waited as long as some of us.  Your missing my point anyway.  I've done the math and seen the odds on the wdfw website, I'm just saying there has to be a better way. 

[jackmaster]

I just hope he gets drawn this year so he will shut up. Every thread that even hints at special permits he starts complaining....

Whatever, I doudt you have waited as long as some of us.  Your missing my point anyway.  I've done the math and seen the odds on the wdfw website, I'm just saying there has to be a better way.

there is a better way, go back to no points, this new draw ststem makes it tough on any tag you want to get, but there is no way the wdfw is gonna go back there is to much money to be had, i wouldnt mind seeing a couple of good quality units go to guys with 10 or more points though, i know of a guy that drew a blue tag and couldnt hack the terrain and gave up on the hunt, i wish they would list a little more info on some of those units so guys like that dont put in for them

[Bob33]

Whatever, I doudt you have waited as long as some of us.  Your missing my point anyway.  I've done the math and seen the odds on the wdfw website, I'm just saying there has to be a better way.

Here is what my math shows.  If Washington adopted a system whereby those with the most points draw, Dayton elk hunt #2006 would look like the following.  This assumes that no one new enters the draw starting this year, and no one drops out.  The first column shows bonus points, and the second column shows the numbers of years for all the applicants with that number of points to draw.  For example, it will take 62 years for everyone who currently has 8 points to draw.  There would be zero chance of drawing before 62 years if you have less than 8 points.

Points   Years to draw
18   1
17   1
15   1
14   4
13   8
12   13
11   21
10   32
9   45
8   62
7   86
6   119
5   160
4   213
3   281
2   369
1   479

[O_mykiss]

I think that WDFW needs to put on a clinic in basic statistics....the main message being that there are never any guarantees to be drawn regardless of how many points you have.

I understand that its frustrating to not get drawn for 16 years or whatever, but I personally enjoy the possibility of getting a permit each year, as opposed to having to wait 20+ years to get enough points like in some states.

[mebco09]

Here is what my math shows.  If Washington adopted a system whereby those with the most points draw, Dayton elk hunt #2006 would look like the following.  This assumes that no one new enters the draw starting this year, and no one drops out.  The first column shows bonus points, and the second column shows the numbers of years for all the applicants with that number of points to draw.  For example, it will take 62 years for everyone who currently has 8 points to draw.  There would be zero chance of drawing before 62 years if you have less than 8 points.

I know it has been said before, but the better system is where a % of the tags go to the highest points applicants and the balance of the tags go to everyone else in a random drawing.  That way those guys who have applied the longest at some point are "guaranteed", then everyone else has an equal chance of getting a tag relative to their points total.  I think Arizona does it that way.

[trophyhunt]

  now someone is making sense.

[SkookumHntr]

  Thats the system I wish we had! Oregon's is like that!

[grundy53]

now someone is making sense.

Not really. What makes your $6.50 more valuable then mine? If you want a better shot of drawing put in for a permit that has a higher odds of drawing or quit whining. Next you will be saying we need to change how they do power ball because its not fair that you haven't drawn it yet. Why are you surprised you haven't drawn yet when you put in for the most heavily sought after tags? It's freakin common sense if everyone wants the same tag and there is only three to go around your probably not going to get it. If you do its PURE LUCK!

[trophyhunt]

someone needs a hug....

[6x6in6]

I personally love the system.
It keeps people playing the WDFW's game of "everybody has a chance."
Besides, it doesn't screw up my odds for drawing out of state with an influx off pissed of WA hunters who opt to take there money elsewhere.
Keep playing all.  Thank You!!!

 

[bucklucky]

Thats funny, I know guys with max points in oregon that cant draw an elk tag.... funny how that works. They wish the draws were like washington where they actually have a chance to draw.

[SkookumHntr]

Thats funny, I know guys with max points in oregon that cant draw an elk tag.... funny how that works. They wish the draws were like washington where they actually have a chance to draw.

-If they have max points in Oregon They get a % of the tags so they will draw eventually and I really doubt they wish they had are system! Plus the Best tags in Oregon a first year applicant can draw it!! It would work for the guys with 1 point and the guys with 16 points! Sure you got the guys with 2 points that think they should have the same chance as us that have applied and not drawn for 20+ years! Those are the same guys that think they deserve top pay the first day on a job too im sure! 

[SkookumHntr]

now someone is making sense.

Not really. What makes your $6.50 more valuable then mine? If you want a better shot of drawing put in for a permit that has a higher odds of drawing or quit whining. Next you will be saying we need to change how they do power ball because its not fair that you haven't drawn it yet. Why are you surprised you haven't drawn yet when you put in for the most heavily sought after tags? It's freakin common sense if everyone wants the same tag and there is only three to go around your probably not going to get it. If you do its PURE LUCK!

-Hellyeah I think my 6.50 is more valuable then yours! Im Just going to take a wild guess that your one of the 2 or 3 points guys..