Draw Odds! Cleaned it up w/attachment

[colockumelk]

Okay so I was really curious on what my chances were of drawing a tag.  Man was I WAY OPTIMISTIC.  In any case here are the chances of drawing a Quality Bull permit on the Eastside for the 300 series GMU's for Archery and Muzzle Loader . It shows the amount of permits given out, the amount of people who applied and the Odds/% of drawing a permit based on how many points you have from 1-15 points.

See the attachment for the info.

[elkfvr]

Wow, I am even luckier than I thought I was, having drawn the cowiche muzzy quality elk tag with only 3 pts!   

[Bigshooter]

Who cares about eastside elk permits? 

[huntnnw]

some people get way to tied up into stats...  there are tags available and someone has to draw them....the way our system works u have a chance every year.

[whuppinstick]

some people get way to tied up into stats...  there are tags available and someone has to draw them....the way our system works u have a chance every year.

Then don't open threads about stats.
I for one love reading into the stats and really appreciate the work you've done here, colockumelk.

A couple of questions, though.  How are you coming up with percentages greater than 100% in Observatory and Goose archery?  With the way the WA system works there should never be a 100% chance unless there are more permits than applicants?
Also, shouldn't the percentages for Colockum muzzleloader (one permit) add up to 100%?  My brain is hitting a wall on what the percentages for the units with more than one permit should be, but it wants to still say 100%?

[Elkaholic daWg]

 all I have to say is I have a better chance of drawing a NE Wa  3 species raffle tag than a colockum quality ,or mission bull tag. My better 1/2's chances are 4x better

[colockumelk]

@huntnnw I was curious to know what the chances are.  Had some spare time with a little dose of OCD and I calculated the facts.  After I did all that I figured that some others would want to know as well. 

@whuppinstick the way I came up with over a 100% probability is this:

If you click on this link.  http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/permits/results/points/2010.php you can then access Quality Bull, Regular Bull, Antlerless, Doe, Buck, Quality Buck, Bear etc.  Click on whichever one you want to look at.  You can then scroll on a hunt that people put in for.  It will then list how many people applied for that tag who had 14pts, how many people who applied that had 13 points etc.  So mathematically you can determine how many "names are in the hat."  So the odds of drawing becomes a simple math problem.  Simple take the amount of points, square that number multiply that number by how many permits are given out, divide that number by the amount of "names in the hat" and then multiply that number by 100.  It will give you your odds of drawing.  So basically lets say that you are applying for a unit that has 10,000 names in the hat.  This unit give out 70 permits and you have 8 pts.  (8x8)x70= 4480.  4480/10,000=0.448.  0.448x100= 44.8% chance of being drawn.  Hope this helps.

Elkaholic daWg.  I didn't do any of the rifle permits but when I get some free time I promise I'll do them and post them up.  But yeah a Colockum tag is basically a once in a lifetime tag.  Those draw odds were for a ML tag and Archery tag.  I can't imagine what a Rifle tag odds would be like.

[danderson]

thanks for helping explain the odds of drawing a quality permit, a friend of mine has 16 points each, for sheep, goat, and moose, hes about to turn 70 years old, his concern is that by the time he draws one he wont be able to fulfill his dream hunt. I would be in favor of a so called, cash in all your points permit, for folks that know that there no longer able to hunt any longer.

[6x6in6]

Elkaholic daWg.  I didn't do any of the rifle permits but when I get some free time I promise I'll do them and post them up.  But yeah a Colockum tag is basically a once in a lifetime tag.  Those draw odds were for a ML tag and Archery tag.  I can't imagine what a Rifle tag odds would be like.

I have the rifle tag odds at work for a number of areas, including the Colockum and Mission.  The Colockum Quality tag is truly an OIL tag.  It is the one with the worst chance of drawing of any rifle tag, by far!!

[colockumelk]

Post them up if you can. I'm sure alot of people would like to see them. Plus it would save me alot of work.    its sad that you stand a better chance drawing Arizona or Utah than our own state.

[6x6in6]

Post them up if you can. I'm sure alot of people would like to see them. Plus it would save me alot of work.    its sad that you stand a better chance drawing Arizona or Utah than our own state.

Shhhhhh!!!!   
I will tomorrow.

[Recurve-Elk]

i got the observatory tag last year.  Almost got a 5x5...  Key word is almost haha too bad my odds of drawing won't be much for at least another 5 years.  At least at that point I will be a lot more experienced  \

PS thanks!  I love looking at the stats and stuff.  Ultimately I don't really care if i'm chasing a cow spike or bull, but its like the lottery so I always have my eye on points and stuff!

[6x6in6]

Here ya go Colock.
Mission and Colockum are the first 2 on the Excel spreadsheet.
Note the tabs on the bottom for other creatures.
These are just modern firearm stats comparing 2009 against 2010 with the changes in draw apps.

[6x6in6]

Your chances of pulling a Selkirk or 49 DN bull moose tag are better than they are for the 1 rifle rut Colockum elk tag. 

[WenHunter]

The way I see it is put in every year and pray like crap you get drawn   

[Jake T]

why do you multiply your points by the number of permits?  in your example...8x8 is your points squared, i get that.  but (8x8)x70 i don't get.

[cmiller85]

why do you multiply your points by the number of permits?  in your example...8x8 is your points squared, i get that.  but (8x8)x70 i don't get.

You take the probability of getting drawn and multiply it by the number of chances to get drawn.

For instance, if there are 10 people drawing for 1 permit and everyone has an equal chance then there is a 1 in 10 or 10% chance of being drawn.

Now if 10 people apply for 2 permits in the same scenario, there is a 1 in 10 chance times 2 chances.
1/10 x 2 = 2/10 which is 1 in 5 or a 20% chance.

[xd2005]

Sorry, I'm dense, why are the points squared?

[Skillet]

Hate to be "that guy"  , but there is are two major flaws in your model -  the first is that you multiplied your own chances by the number of tags available, but not anybody else's chances by the same number of tags.  That makes your odds listed artificially  high.  The second is that the odds change with every tag drawn.  They actually go up with each tag that gets pulled.  This is because the way the system works isn't that they pull out 70 names all at once and match them up with tags - they get pulled one at a time. 

Using the above 70 tags and 10,000 names in the hat model, for the first tag drawn it would be:

8x8 = 64 names out of 10,000 = .64% chance to draw that tag on your first round.  That's way less than a 1% chance, by the way.  Now there's one less tag in the bunch (69 left), but let's say it was a guy with 15 points that drew it.  So, since he had 225 names in the hat, one of which got drawn to win the tag, you can take out his remaining 224 names also since he can't draw another tag.  So, now there's only 9775 names in the hat going for 69 tags - but in 69 more separate drawings! 

2nd tag drawing-
8x8 = 64 names out of 9775 = .65% chance to draw this tag.  Your odds went up! Let's say you didn't draw it, but that guy we all love to hate did  - it was his first year putting in for permits.  He had one name in the hat.  So, you take out the tag from the remaining (68 left), and by pulling his name to win the tag, you've already taken out his one name in the hat, leaving 9774.

3rd tag drawing-
8x8 = 64 names out of 9774 in the hat = .65%.  See a pattern developing?  You're odds are basically static at .65% for the drawing.  It may go all the way up to .69% by the end of the drawing, depending on how many guys pull tags with a lot of points and drop out.

This is why guys can have 15 points and easily not get pulled - they aren't pulling for 70 tags in one drawing, they're pulling for one tag 70 times.  It's like flipping a coin 9 times in a row and getting heads each time - on the 10th flip, your odds for heads vs. tails are still 50%.  Over the entire set of flips, you flipped 90% heads, but that doesn't mean you're "due" for a tails, or you are "guaranteed" a heads.  Just 50-50 odds.  And In the same model as used above, a 15 point guy is looking at a 2.25% chance 70 times in a row - about 3.4 times the odds of the 8 point guy.

If I'm wrong about how the tags are pulled, I'll stand corrected on that point, since this is how it was explained to me a few years ago when I first started putting in.  But the math is the math - you can't multiply your names in the hat by the number of tags.  It is the biggest racket ever that was concocted not to increase opportunity, but to increase the revenue stream.

Good luck next year.   I think I'll go drop the grand on a combo tag and go to Montana while I'm still young enough to actually hunt. 

[Skillet]

Sorry, I'm dense, why are the points squared?

Points are squared to give the guys who have been putting in for years a better chance than the guys who haven't.  It's supposed to make you feel like you've got a legit shot at drawing a tag.  I think it makes guys say "well, I better give them some more of my money, since I'm certain to get pulled this year!"  But even a guy with 10 extra poacher points in the above model (25 points total) only has a 6.25% chance to get pulled for the tag...

[Shawn Ryan]

If I understand the WDFW report correctly, the first series of columns labeled "Applications" and "Selected Applicants" refers to applicants who were drawn who also put that hunt as a first choice and the second series of columns with the same labels refers to applicants who were drawn who put that hunt as a second choice.  Correct?

Looking at the 2011 Quality Elk table for hunt no. 2056 (archery Wenaha West) (http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/permits/results/points/2011category_points_qualityelk.pdf) the total number of permits is 4, but the total number of Selected Applicants is 7.  Same thing for Wenaha East; 6 permits, 11 Selected Applicants.  A quick check of other hunts showed the same thing. Any explanation?

[Skillet]

The only thing I can think of there is if they selected a guy who put it as his second choice in one drawing who actually got his first choice pulled in another drawing?  Maybe they then have to pull again since he already has a tag?  Just a guess...

[colockumelk]

Skillet I agree that my "model" isn't perfect since there are too many variables to consider.  But all statistics allow for error.  I woul be willing to bet that my "model" is accurate to + or - 5% of the actual odds %.  But no problem brother being "that guy" is what makes this website fun and interesting.   

[6x6in6]

You are correct Skillet.
The only way to truly know what the chance of drawing is, is to know the order for which each winning applicant had for points in the drawing.  Mine reflects the chances before a winning app is pulled.
But, and as you mentioned, the chances change ever so slightly as a name gets pulled.  When you have 45,000 names in a barrel and a 3 point holder gets drawn that's 9 app's out, 1 less tag and still 44,991 left to pull from.  Even a reduction of 400 for a 20 point holder is a puny fraction of app's by comparison.
When were working with odds of less than 1%, to get a significant increase in these odds, something needs to give.  More tags isn't going to happen.  And as long as this state does nothing to truly "reward" max and more than max point holders, our odds are getting worse and worse every year.

Yes, it's a racket and we have all bit.

Yes, the second column reflects a point holder that drew with something other than their first choice.  There first choice was filled so it reverted to 2nd., 3rd or 4th depending on the allowable choices for the app.

[dreamingbig]

And as long as this state does nothing to truly "reward" max and more than max point holders, our odds are getting worse and worse every year.

   I have been saying this for awhile now.  It is depressing.  I have the worst luck in random drawings so I don't have much faith in this system.  Oh and Skillet I was "that guy" right there with you but didn't post as I was still too depressed over how bad the system really is.

[BOWHUNTER45]

I say toss the system out the door ...its all BS ...Just go back the way it used to be and hope your drawn ..or they need to make it so after so many points ( like say 10 to 15 ) you automatically get a quality tag ...because I drawn on 1 point some have drawn on 2 or 3 and some have not drawn on 15 or so ...I call BS and unfair to everyone ..all then some have drawn 2 years in a row ...What the h$ll is up with that

[KNOPHISH]

[ the total number of permits is 4, but the total number of Selected Applicants is 7.  Same thing for Wenaha East; 6 permits, 11 Selected Applicants.  A quick check of other hunts showed the same thing. Any explanation?
[/quote]
My guess is that one column says Selected Applications the last column says Selected applicants so 2 guys put in partners. still only 4 selected.

[Skillet]

I say toss the system out the door ...its all BS ...Just go back the way it used to be and hope your drawn ...

 
I know a guy with 15 points patiently waiting for his big bull tag who might not like that idea!  Some folks are heavily invested in the system, and with the recent changes to split up all the tags into multiple groups, there are going to be more people even more invested in the system.  Some people keep paying the money in and hope to win the tag lottery, and then there are those who want to go hunting big branched bulls in the classic elk terrain with a decent shot at notching a tag, go spend their money in another state.

[Shawn Ryan]

Knophish,  Good job paying attention to the details: the first column is "applications" and the second is "applicants."  The numbers work. Thanks.