Draw Odds! Cleaned it up w/attachment

[colockumelk]

Okay so I was really curious on what my chances were of drawing a tag.  Man was I WAY OPTIMISTIC.  In any case here are the chances of drawing a Quality Bull permit on the Eastside for the 300 series GMU's for Archery and Muzzle Loader . It shows the amount of permits given out, the amount of people who applied and the Odds/% of drawing a permit based on how many points you have from 1-15 points.

See the attachment for the info.

[elkfvr]

Wow, I am even luckier than I thought I was, having drawn the cowiche muzzy quality elk tag with only 3 pts!   

[Bigshooter]

Who cares about eastside elk permits? 

[huntnnw]

some people get way to tied up into stats...  there are tags available and someone has to draw them....the way our system works u have a chance every year.

[whuppinstick]

some people get way to tied up into stats...  there are tags available and someone has to draw them....the way our system works u have a chance every year.

Then don't open threads about stats.
I for one love reading into the stats and really appreciate the work you've done here, colockumelk.

A couple of questions, though.  How are you coming up with percentages greater than 100% in Observatory and Goose archery?  With the way the WA system works there should never be a 100% chance unless there are more permits than applicants?
Also, shouldn't the percentages for Colockum muzzleloader (one permit) add up to 100%?  My brain is hitting a wall on what the percentages for the units with more than one permit should be, but it wants to still say 100%?

[Elkaholic daWg]

 all I have to say is I have a better chance of drawing a NE Wa  3 species raffle tag than a colockum quality ,or mission bull tag. My better 1/2's chances are 4x better

[colockumelk]

@huntnnw I was curious to know what the chances are.  Had some spare time with a little dose of OCD and I calculated the facts.  After I did all that I figured that some others would want to know as well. 

@whuppinstick the way I came up with over a 100% probability is this:

If you click on this link.  http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/permits/results/points/2010.php you can then access Quality Bull, Regular Bull, Antlerless, Doe, Buck, Quality Buck, Bear etc.  Click on whichever one you want to look at.  You can then scroll on a hunt that people put in for.  It will then list how many people applied for that tag who had 14pts, how many people who applied that had 13 points etc.  So mathematically you can determine how many "names are in the hat."  So the odds of drawing becomes a simple math problem.  Simple take the amount of points, square that number multiply that number by how many permits are given out, divide that number by the amount of "names in the hat" and then multiply that number by 100.  It will give you your odds of drawing.  So basically lets say that you are applying for a unit that has 10,000 names in the hat.  This unit give out 70 permits and you have 8 pts.  (8x8)x70= 4480.  4480/10,000=0.448.  0.448x100= 44.8% chance of being drawn.  Hope this helps.

Elkaholic daWg.  I didn't do any of the rifle permits but when I get some free time I promise I'll do them and post them up.  But yeah a Colockum tag is basically a once in a lifetime tag.  Those draw odds were for a ML tag and Archery tag.  I can't imagine what a Rifle tag odds would be like.

[danderson]

thanks for helping explain the odds of drawing a quality permit, a friend of mine has 16 points each, for sheep, goat, and moose, hes about to turn 70 years old, his concern is that by the time he draws one he wont be able to fulfill his dream hunt. I would be in favor of a so called, cash in all your points permit, for folks that know that there no longer able to hunt any longer.

[6x6in6]

Elkaholic daWg.  I didn't do any of the rifle permits but when I get some free time I promise I'll do them and post them up.  But yeah a Colockum tag is basically a once in a lifetime tag.  Those draw odds were for a ML tag and Archery tag.  I can't imagine what a Rifle tag odds would be like.

I have the rifle tag odds at work for a number of areas, including the Colockum and Mission.  The Colockum Quality tag is truly an OIL tag.  It is the one with the worst chance of drawing of any rifle tag, by far!!

[colockumelk]

Post them up if you can. I'm sure alot of people would like to see them. Plus it would save me alot of work.    its sad that you stand a better chance drawing Arizona or Utah than our own state.

[6x6in6]

Post them up if you can. I'm sure alot of people would like to see them. Plus it would save me alot of work.    its sad that you stand a better chance drawing Arizona or Utah than our own state.

Shhhhhh!!!!   
I will tomorrow.

[Recurve-Elk]

i got the observatory tag last year.  Almost got a 5x5...  Key word is almost haha too bad my odds of drawing won't be much for at least another 5 years.  At least at that point I will be a lot more experienced  \

PS thanks!  I love looking at the stats and stuff.  Ultimately I don't really care if i'm chasing a cow spike or bull, but its like the lottery so I always have my eye on points and stuff!

[6x6in6]

Here ya go Colock.
Mission and Colockum are the first 2 on the Excel spreadsheet.
Note the tabs on the bottom for other creatures.
These are just modern firearm stats comparing 2009 against 2010 with the changes in draw apps.

[6x6in6]

Your chances of pulling a Selkirk or 49 DN bull moose tag are better than they are for the 1 rifle rut Colockum elk tag. 

[WenHunter]

The way I see it is put in every year and pray like crap you get drawn