collapse

Advertisement


Author Topic: Oregon Seed numbers 2024  (Read 4239 times)

Offline Crunchy

  • Political & Covid-19 Topics
  • Trade Count: (+2)
  • Frontiersman
  • *****
  • Join Date: Apr 2007
  • Posts: 4873
  • Location: Puyallup
Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #15 on: May 28, 2024, 09:14:23 PM »
mine is 0795,352 for 200 series elk.  IM SCREWED

Which hunt did you apply for? Res or non res?

Does it matter if only 5% of tags go to non-res for all 200 series

Offline millerwheeler

  • Trade Count: (+4)
  • Sourdough
  • *****
  • Join Date: Jun 2014
  • Posts: 1440
  • Location: Spanaway
  • Get out and put some miles on those boots
Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #16 on: May 28, 2024, 09:21:18 PM »
This is all so confusing lol I’ll just wait for the disappointment
« Last Edit: May 29, 2024, 06:05:01 AM by millerwheeler »

Offline Doublelunger

  • Non-Hunting Topics
  • Trade Count: (+2)
  • Sourdough
  • *****
  • Join Date: Dec 2011
  • Posts: 1133
  • Location: Pacific NW
Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #17 on: May 28, 2024, 09:32:40 PM »
Okay I think I follow this. For my 100 series rifle buck tag in the Ches.

2023 First Choice Applicants = 629

9,999,999 / 629 = 15,898

15,898 x 440 tags = 6,995,230

Buck Deer 100 Series Seed # = 3,633,092

3,633,092 + 6,995,230 (less 9,999,999 for overlapping) = 0,658,322

My App # = 5,666,941

So I should be in. And that website is showing 100% odds for non-res with 2 points which is where I'm at. Pretty neat.

Well it looks like chesnimus gives 22 tags to non residents. Last year there were 30 non res applicants. You have to search for the points summary reports to get that number. Its not in the regs.
https://myodfw.com/articles/point-summary-reports

But 'd go: 10,000,000÷30=333,333×22=7,333,333, add that to the seed number(3,633,092) and roll it over and you get 0,926,425. So ya if your app number is between 3,633,092 and 0,926,425 then you should be good to go.

Offline Doublelunger

  • Non-Hunting Topics
  • Trade Count: (+2)
  • Sourdough
  • *****
  • Join Date: Dec 2011
  • Posts: 1133
  • Location: Pacific NW
Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #18 on: May 28, 2024, 09:38:58 PM »
mine is 0795,352 for 200 series elk.  IM SCREWED

Which hunt did you apply for? Res or non res?

Does it matter if only 5% of tags go to non-res for all 200 series


Depends on what you put in for. Still some 200 series hunts that are 100% for non res.

Offline Ricochet

  • Political & Covid-19 Topics
  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Longhunter
  • *****
  • Join Date: Jan 2009
  • Posts: 883
  • Location: Oregon
Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #19 on: May 28, 2024, 09:55:36 PM »
Math guys, the difference between my app# and the elk seed, is 1,747,973.  So you’re saying I have a chance!!!  🤣🤣

I let Ron Wold do the math at https://oregontags.com/ If he says you have, for example, a 10% chance of drawing at your point level then you need to be 10% or less above the seed number, which is less than 1,000,000 over the number. In your case, Trophyhunt you are 17.4% over the seed number. Check and see what Ron says your chances are. It's worked for me every time and no calculator needed.  Probably less accurate for non-residents because it doesn't take much of a swing in application numbers to skew the results but as a resident, it's been spot on for me.
It is not my duty to validate your delusions.

"It is no measure of health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society."-Jiddu Krishnamurti.

Offline trophyhunt

  • Forum Sponsor
  • Trade Count: (+11)
  • Explorer
  • *****
  • Join Date: Nov 2008
  • Posts: 19087
  • Location: Wetside
  • Groups: Wa Wild Sheep Life Member
Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #20 on: May 28, 2024, 10:20:08 PM »
Math guys, the difference between my app# and the elk seed, is 1,747,973.  So you’re saying I have a chance!!!  🤣🤣

I let Ron Wold do the math at https://oregontags.com/ If he says you have, for example, a 10% chance of drawing at your point level then you need to be 10% or less above the seed number, which is less than 1,000,000 over the number. In your case, Trophyhunt you are 17.4% over the seed number. Check and see what Ron says your chances are. It's worked for me every time and no calculator needed.  Probably less accurate for non-residents because it doesn't take much of a swing in application numbers to skew the results but as a resident, it's been spot on for me.
thanks, still confusing as heck though.
“In common with”..... not so much!!

Offline pickardjw

  • Non-Hunting Topics
  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Sourdough
  • *****
  • Join Date: Oct 2019
  • Posts: 1604
  • Location: Pendleton, OR
Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #21 on: May 29, 2024, 05:53:43 AM »
Okay I think I follow this. For my 100 series rifle buck tag in the Ches.

2023 First Choice Applicants = 629

9,999,999 / 629 = 15,898

15,898 x 440 tags = 6,995,230

Buck Deer 100 Series Seed # = 3,633,092

3,633,092 + 6,995,230 (less 9,999,999 for overlapping) = 0,658,322

My App # = 5,666,941

So I should be in. And that website is showing 100% odds for non-res with 2 points which is where I'm at. Pretty neat.

Well it looks like chesnimus gives 22 tags to non residents. Last year there were 30 non res applicants. You have to search for the points summary reports to get that number. Its not in the regs.
https://myodfw.com/articles/point-summary-reports

But 'd go: 10,000,000÷30=333,333×22=7,333,333, add that to the seed number(3,633,092) and roll it over and you get 0,926,425. So ya if your app number is between 3,633,092 and 0,926,425 then you should be good to go.

Ahh, that’s how you do non-res. Gotcha.

Offline trophyhunt

  • Forum Sponsor
  • Trade Count: (+11)
  • Explorer
  • *****
  • Join Date: Nov 2008
  • Posts: 19087
  • Location: Wetside
  • Groups: Wa Wild Sheep Life Member
Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #22 on: May 29, 2024, 08:37:04 AM »
I watched the Oregon drawing live yesterday for the raffle tickets, that is pretty cool!  I’d love to see Wa do the same thing. When they get down to about 10-15 people for each tag, their names are floating around on the screen, it would be exciting to see your name bouncing around. 
“In common with”..... not so much!!

Offline bigfish51

  • Political & Covid-19 Topics
  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Hunter
  • ***
  • Join Date: Jun 2010
  • Posts: 100
  • Location: East side
  • Groups: RMEF
Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #23 on: May 29, 2024, 09:45:33 AM »
Oh so close!  My son's # is 532 under the elk seed #.  Dang it!  Wish he was 532 over, he'd be in great shape for a tag.  Oh well!  Not even close on the rest of the seed #'s, so it looks like it will be points accumulated again this year in OR.  Good luck to all of you.

Offline Ricochet

  • Political & Covid-19 Topics
  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Longhunter
  • *****
  • Join Date: Jan 2009
  • Posts: 883
  • Location: Oregon
Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #24 on: May 29, 2024, 11:03:47 AM »
Missed the bighorn number by a country mile, starting to think somebody up there doesn't like me since I've been applying since 1968 and still no luck.  :bash:
It is not my duty to validate your delusions.

"It is no measure of health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society."-Jiddu Krishnamurti.

Offline Elkfever

  • Non-Hunting Topics
  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Hunter
  • ***
  • Join Date: May 2009
  • Posts: 207
Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #25 on: May 29, 2024, 10:35:38 PM »
18,494 over the premium elk seed number for Pine Creek.  Do I have a chance?  😬

Offline mp.hunter

  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Longhunter
  • *****
  • Join Date: Apr 2010
  • Posts: 582
Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #26 on: May 30, 2024, 06:55:45 AM »
18,494 over the premium elk seed number for Pine Creek.  Do I have a chance? 
I hope you get it, I was in the same boat 2 years ago only 18,000 and change and I did not get I was very confused


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Offline Elkfever

  • Non-Hunting Topics
  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Hunter
  • ***
  • Join Date: May 2009
  • Posts: 207
Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #27 on: May 30, 2024, 07:35:33 AM »
Yeah, I’ve never been this close before but also feel like it could still be a long shot.  If nothing else, I’ll enjoy the anticipation before the draw. 

Offline Doublelunger

  • Non-Hunting Topics
  • Trade Count: (+2)
  • Sourdough
  • *****
  • Join Date: Dec 2011
  • Posts: 1133
  • Location: Pacific NW
Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #28 on: May 31, 2024, 06:53:20 AM »
18,494 over the premium elk seed number for Pine Creek.  Do I have a chance?  😬

300 people put in for pine creek premium last year. Assuming an even distribution that's 33,333 between applicants. So if you were to also assume the same number of applicants this year that would mean you have a very realistic chance.
« Last Edit: May 31, 2024, 07:19:04 AM by Doublelunger »

Offline CNELK

  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Scout
  • ****
  • Join Date: Aug 2013
  • Posts: 280
  • Location: Vancouver
  • Groups: RMEF
Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #29 on: May 31, 2024, 07:44:40 AM »
According to the math, I have about a 13% chance, which is a long shot at my premium deer tag. I’m 130,936 off


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 


* Advertisement

* Recent Topics

2024 As He Lay by Dark2Dark
[Today at 12:22:56 AM]


Colockum elk shooting/poaching by Rainier10
[Yesterday at 11:14:45 PM]


Sons valuable lesson learned (me too) and poachers. (long ready sorry) by storyteller
[Yesterday at 10:27:42 PM]


Amazing experience at mentored pheasant hunt by full choke
[Yesterday at 09:53:16 PM]


Rattling Whitetails 2024 by bornhunter
[Yesterday at 09:22:55 PM]


Heavy Single Bevel is the ONLY way by blackveltbowhunter
[Yesterday at 09:17:41 PM]


621 Olympic Rifle Elk by MLBowhunting
[Yesterday at 09:14:00 PM]


2024 H-W 14th Annual Christmas Gift Exchange by millerwheeler
[Yesterday at 08:59:09 PM]


Gunsmith for old 20 gauge side by side by ljsommer
[Yesterday at 08:31:07 PM]


My 2024 Wa Deer season by JakeLand
[Yesterday at 08:23:04 PM]


Avian Flu & Botulism by metlhead
[Yesterday at 08:01:53 PM]


Hornady Bore Driver ELD-X 340 grain .50 cal. by Come Get Some
[Yesterday at 07:40:06 PM]


2024 Waterfowl Season by mboyle0828
[Yesterday at 07:20:00 PM]


Anybody hunted Snake River in Oregon? by Dark2Dark
[Yesterday at 07:10:11 PM]


Permanent ground blind on public elk grounds. Opinions? by NOCK NOCK
[Yesterday at 06:50:25 PM]


Whose rattling whitetails this year? by TeacherMan
[Yesterday at 06:46:54 PM]


Best Kills!!! by bigmacc
[Yesterday at 06:43:17 PM]


Drew Quality Deer Nooksack by Boss .300 winmag
[Yesterday at 06:39:31 PM]


Tips hunting Mid November for bear by Roslyn Rambler
[Yesterday at 06:34:39 PM]


Montana alternate list is out by yogi
[Yesterday at 06:04:44 PM]

SimplePortal 2.3.7 © 2008-2024, SimplePortal