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Author Topic: Study: Mule Deer, Predators, & Drought  (Read 5205 times)

Offline bearpaw

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Study: Mule Deer, Predators, & Drought
« on: January 20, 2015, 10:02:12 AM »
Seems there is evidence that indicates why Washington's big game herds may be struggling in it's predator rich environment!

Deer, Predators, and Drought
New research holds surprises
By Rory K. Aikens
Reprinted from Arizona Wildlife News
July-August 2004

Quote
An ongoing research project on the 3-Bar Wildlife Area near Roosevelt Lake is helping biologists to better understand-and to an extent redefine--the predatorprey relationship.

The study's findings so far indicate that predators may have a more significant impact on deer populations than biologists previously thought. The prevailing biological belief is that habitat conditions are the primary controlling factor for deer populations, not predation. The long-term deer study at the 3-Bar is punching holes in parts of biological theory, and others.

Jim deVos, research chief for the Arizona Game and Fish Department, says the findings have many biologists scratching their heads. Despite a prolonged drought, biologists are seeing deer densities within the predator-proof enclosures rivaling those in places like the pri'me whitetail country of the southeastern Unitcd States. Yet deer densities outside the 3-Bar enclosure have experienced significant declines during that same period.

Quote
3-Bar is a unique outdoor lab
The 602-acre Walnut Canyon Enclosure in the 3-Bar Wildlife Area is located in the Tonto National Forest. The Walnut Canyon Enclosure is a fenced area of almost one square mile that provides a unique outdoor wildlife laboratory for biologists.

This predator-proof enclosure has been used for more than 30 years to study mule deer declines and for other research as well. Two mule deer declines have been documented in the western United States since the 1960's. The exact reasons for declines are varied and often difficult to pinpoint.

"The original 3-Bar mule deer study in the late 1970's found that fawn survival was 30 percent greater inside the enclosure than outside during a six-year wet period. The current 3-Bar study shows that despite one of the worst droughts in the past 700 to 1,000 years, fawn survival has remained high in this predatorproof enclosure", says deVos.

Outside the enclosure during the drought, fawn survival rates and mule deer populations have plunged to the lowest numbers in the past half-century.

During 2002, which was the driest year in Arizona's recorded history, the fawnto-doe ratios within the enclosure were 100 fawns per 100 does. Outside the enclosure in Game Management Unit 22 the ratio was 18 fawns per 100 does. "The only significant difference between the two areas is the absence of predators in the 3-Bar enclosure," Ballard says.

Quote
3-Bar study challenges theories
The 3-Bar deer study findings challenge many accepted biological theories.

For instance, de Vos says, biologists have long believed that deer are "density" dependent, which means that once deer density ratios get high, deer experience a reduction in fecundity--the physical ability to reproduce. "That's not happening on the 3-bar. That tells us that density dependency may not be a valid theory or hat the threshold for it is much higher than anyone thought."

Another generally accepted biological theory is that habitat conditions, not predation, control deer numbers. "That theory may be true when weather and habitat conditions are good, such as our study during the 1970's in the 3-Bar. However, we have had a decade-long drought in 2002--the driest year in recorded history--yet deer numbers, densities, and reproduction have remained as high as during the wet years," de Vos says. "The absence of predation is the only variable that has changed."

read more: http://www.gardnerfiles.com/3-g%20Arizona%203-Bar%20Study.pdf
« Last Edit: January 20, 2015, 10:13:19 AM by bearpaw »
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Offline jasnt

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Re: Study: Deer, Predators, & Drought
« Reply #1 on: January 20, 2015, 10:07:34 AM »
No surprise there.  Funny how when they actually study the animals all their theories get proved wrong
https://www.howlforwildlife.org/take_action  It takes 10 seconds and it’s free. To easy to make an excuse not to make your voice heard!!!!!!

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https://apps.leg.wa.gov/RCW/default.aspx?cite=77.04.012

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Re: Study: Deer, Predators, & Drought
« Reply #2 on: January 20, 2015, 10:15:32 AM »
 Imagine that.

 The title should actually read Deer, Predators, Politicians and Drought

The things that come to those who wait, may be the things left by those who got there first!

Offline bearpaw

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Re: Study: Mule Deer, Predators, & Drought
« Reply #3 on: January 20, 2015, 10:23:10 AM »
Add fire into the equation:

http://www.gf.state.az.us/w_c/research_fire_predation_mule.shtml

The effect of fire, predation and vegetation quality on mule deer habitat use and fawn survival
 
Mule Deer BuckBackground:
Western states biologists have documented 2 declines in mule deer numbers since the 1960s. The reasons for decline are varied and often difficult to pinpoint. Because mule deer are so important to sportsman and the general public, the Arizona Game and Fish Department began to research desert mule deer decline by constructing the Walnut Canyon Enclosure at the Three Bar Wildlife Area in 1970. This predator proof enclosure allowed us to closely examine the effects of predation on fawn survival. In the initial study, we determined that fawn survival was approximately 30% greater in the absence of predators. In 1988 the gates to the enclosure were opened to allow animals to move in and out of the area until 1997. In early May 1996, the Lone Fire burned approximately half of the enclosure, so we once again used the enclosure and examined mule deer habitat use in predator-free, burned and unburned environments. In 2000, we introduced coyotes for 6 months to see if their presence changed deer habitat use. Even during our current drought, the predator free deer population continued to increase, prompting us to continue investigating the effects of different mule deer densities, vegetation quantity and quality, predation, drought, and deer nutritional condition in and outside of the enclosure have on mule deer fawn survival.

Location:
The 602-acre Walnut Canyon Enclosure (slightly smaller than a square mile) on the Three Bar Wildlife Area in the Tonto National Forest south of Roosevelt Lake in central Arizona.

Approach:
Mule deer releaseVegetation data are collected each spring, summer, autumn, and winter, and deer density counts are taken each fall in a deer drive. We measure vegetation inside and outside the enclosure to look for differences among seasons and years at different deer densities (high inside, low outside). The deer drive is conducted using 60-100 employees and volunteers who form a line across the entire enclosure and walk from one end to the other. Each animal that passes through the line along the way is counted once, providing accurate information on the number deer and peccaries in the enclosure each year. Two graduate students from the University of Arizona completed the fire ecology portion of the study in December 2002, and 2 new graduate students (ASU East and Texas Tech Universities) will continue to work with research branch biologists over the next three years to look at habitat quality and deer nutritional condition.

Benefits:
The use of a large enclosure is similar to having an outdoor laboratory, and allows to control the predator component of population regulation. The original study that found fawn survival was greater inside the enclosure was during a six year wet period. However, since we closed the gates in 1997, Gila County, as well as much of the rest of the state, is in the worst drought that has occurred in the last 700 to 1,000 years. We did not expect the mule deer fawns within the enclosure to survive at as high of rates as they did in the wet period, but they have. Leaving us with the question, are predators more important than habitat in controlling deer numbers? That is why we have switched our emphasis to the habitat quality and deer nutritional condition. Certainly, there must be an interaction between habitat quality, deer nutritional condition, predation and fawn survival. Hopefully our large outdoor laboratory will help illuminate what conditions desert mule deer fawns need for optimal survival.

This project was conducted under the direction of
Stan Cunningham, Arizona Game and Fish Department, 5000 W. Carefree Highway Phoenix, AZ 85086-5000 .
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Offline KFhunter

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Re: Study: Mule Deer, Predators, & Drought
« Reply #4 on: January 20, 2015, 10:25:23 AM »
I think there's about 5 people on HW that couldn't figure out this conclusion on their own.

Offline bearpaw

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Offline Maverick

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Re: Study: Mule Deer, Predators, & Drought
« Reply #6 on: January 20, 2015, 11:18:00 AM »
Release the hounds! Call in some coyotes, issue some wolf tags and I'll bet washingtons mule deer population will do better!

Offline huntnphool

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Re: Study: Mule Deer, Predators, & Drought
« Reply #7 on: January 20, 2015, 11:40:01 AM »
Release the hounds! Call in some coyotes, issue some wolf tags and I'll bet washingtons mule deer population will do better!

 How does increasing the wolf population translate to rebounded mule deer herds? :bash:
The things that come to those who wait, may be the things left by those who got there first!

Offline elkaholic123

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Re: Study: Mule Deer, Predators, & Drought
« Reply #8 on: January 20, 2015, 12:02:03 PM »
Release the hounds! Call in some coyotes, issue some wolf tags and I'll bet washingtons mule deer population will do better!

 How does increasing the wolf population translate to rebounded mule deer herds? :bash:
I don't see where he said increase the wolf pop? I think he wants to eliminate some  :dunno:
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Offline huntnphool

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Re: Study: Mule Deer, Predators, & Drought
« Reply #9 on: January 20, 2015, 12:13:03 PM »
Release the hounds! Call in some coyotes, issue some wolf tags and I'll bet washingtons mule deer population will do better!

 How does increasing the wolf population translate to rebounded mule deer herds? :bash:
I don't see where he said increase the wolf pop? I think he wants to eliminate some  :dunno:

 Pay attention Jerry, to hunt wolves in this state we need to reach the 15 BP target, to reach the 15 BP target, the wolf numbers will need to increase. ;)

 Hunters should be hoping that we never reach the 15 BP target, we have too many wolves in this state already!
The things that come to those who wait, may be the things left by those who got there first!

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Re: Study: Mule Deer, Predators, & Drought
« Reply #10 on: January 20, 2015, 12:18:00 PM »
Yes I know Rob but I think Maverick just wants to eliminate them NOW  :chuckle:
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Re: Study: Mule Deer, Predators, & Drought
« Reply #11 on: January 20, 2015, 12:22:41 PM »
 I will also remind those of you that did not attend the meetings, 99% of you, and those of you that have not read the wolf plan, likely 99% of you. It's clearly written in the plan that should the ungulate numbers drop to a point that is not sustaining the wolf population, "hunting seasons may necessarily need to be adjusted".

 They are not referring to wolf hunting seasons here, they are referring to big game seasons!

 So go ahead and keep pushing for us to reach the 15 BP target, but don't bitch and complain when you reap what has been sown!
The things that come to those who wait, may be the things left by those who got there first!

Offline huntnphool

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Re: Study: Mule Deer, Predators, & Drought
« Reply #12 on: January 20, 2015, 12:24:05 PM »
Yes I know Rob but I think Maverick just wants to eliminate them NOW  :chuckle:

 Mav understands that wolf tags can not be issued until they are delisted. ;)
The things that come to those who wait, may be the things left by those who got there first!

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Re: Study: Mule Deer, Predators, & Drought
« Reply #13 on: January 20, 2015, 04:05:07 PM »
I will also remind those of you that did not attend the meetings, 99% of you, and those of you that have not read the wolf plan, likely 99% of you. It's clearly written in the plan that should the ungulate numbers drop to a point that is not sustaining the wolf population, "hunting seasons may necessarily need to be adjusted".

 They are not referring to wolf hunting seasons here, they are referring to big game seasons!

 So go ahead and keep pushing for us to reach the 15 BP target, but don't bitch and complain when you reap what has been sown!

They can't even get to that part until the know what the ungulate numbers are, and according to the plan if they see ungulate numbers severely affected they'll initiate a 3 year ungulate study.  WDFW has no clue to ungulate numbers on the east side.

We've got a looooong ways to go in this wolf war of Washington state.

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Re: Study: Mule Deer, Predators, & Drought
« Reply #14 on: January 20, 2015, 04:17:07 PM »
I will also remind those of you that did not attend the meetings, 99% of you, and those of you that have not read the wolf plan, likely 99% of you. It's clearly written in the plan that should the ungulate numbers drop to a point that is not sustaining the wolf population, "hunting seasons may necessarily need to be adjusted".

 They are not referring to wolf hunting seasons here, they are referring to big game seasons!

 So go ahead and keep pushing for us to reach the 15 BP target, but don't bitch and complain when you reap what has been sown!

They can't even get to that part until the know what the ungulate numbers are, and according to the plan if they see ungulate numbers severely affected they'll initiate a 3 year ungulate study.  WDFW has no clue to ungulate numbers on the east side.

We've got a looooong ways to go in this wolf war of Washington state.
But isn't there all kinds of disconnect about the ungulate populations anyways.  I remember threads about the fire from last summer and lots of doe tags, the hunters feel the area herd is already having a tough time but the local biologist says deer are doing outstanding and gives glowing preseason reports.  Even when the deer do take a major hit, won't WDFW probably be telling everyone the herd is robust?

 


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