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Author Topic: Survey shows Washington wolf numbers grew by 30% in 2014  (Read 37119 times)

Offline Sumpnneedskillin

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Re: Survey shows Washington wolf numbers grew by 30% in 2014
« Reply #30 on: March 07, 2015, 09:43:53 PM »

I'd remember the Tucannon pack had I seen that.

Co-worker saw two near Patit Rd last Spring. I asked a Bio about them and was told collared wolves have been tracked in the area.
From January 2014: nwsportsmanmag.com/headlines/elk-visit-chesaw-wolves-roam-the-tucannon/

"Meanwhile, well to the south, ODFW informed its counterparts at WDFW that at least a pair of Wenaha wolves had been roaming the Tucannon River basin, which is well inside Washington, but also apparently part of the pack’s territory. Last winter a large group of wolves was observed in the area. Oregon’s 2012 year-end wolf report said the pack spent 2 percent of its time in Washington."

I was aware of the wolves the Washington bios were tracking. Pretty sure the Oregon wenaha pack has been cruising through the Tucannon for at least a couple years now. I'm not surprised that there is a confirmed pack now, just surprised I missed all the news releases on these new packs.

It was discussed in the Lewiston paper.  Word is one of the wolves is a collared OR wolf running with 1-3 other wolves. 

If I remember correctly the paper said the wolves were being seen in the Cloverland/Anatone area.  WDFW downplayed it.  Lots of uproar by the locals and a day or so later there was another story with WDFW saying sorry there was some confusion, some crossed lines in communications etc.  You guys are right about the number of wolves seen, where seen etc.
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Offline darren

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Re: Survey shows Washington wolf numbers grew by 30% in 2014
« Reply #31 on: March 08, 2015, 06:17:31 AM »
I'm curious why they report the wolf population as a minimum number (i.e., at least 68 as of the end of last year). It seems like the more common method for a wildlife survey is to determine a count in a handful of areas and then assume that density exists in other areas and generate an estimate of the total population based on that. Do they not do something similar in this case because the numbers are small compared to other species, or do they assume they have a bead on every wolf pack there is in the state today?

Offline idahohuntr

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Re: Survey shows Washington wolf numbers grew by 30% in 2014
« Reply #32 on: March 08, 2015, 07:49:52 AM »
I'm curious why they report the wolf population as a minimum number (i.e., at least 68 as of the end of last year). It seems like the more common method for a wildlife survey is to determine a count in a handful of areas and then assume that density exists in other areas and generate an estimate of the total population based on that. Do they not do something similar in this case because the numbers are small compared to other species, or do they assume they have a bead on every wolf pack there is in the state today?
It was protocol established when wolves were reintroduced and makes sense from a species recovery standpoint when they are at low abundance...what is the minimum we know to exist.  WDFW adopted the existing format in part because its identical to what other states were collecting and understood/accepted by USFWS which still has jurisdiction over wolves in the western 2/3 of the state.  Kind of a "lets not re-invent the wheel" approach.  WDFW is very aware they do not have a bead on every pack.  Based on other states data it is often assumed that around 30% of the packs are not identified...so if we know of 16 right now...that would mean they are thinking there is closer to 21 packs in WA. 

As far as your comment about extrapolating estimates to generate an actual total estimate, instead of just a minimum count, I have heard wdfw staff walk people through the simple math...known packs + estimated unknown packs (30%) x average number of wolves in a pack + some portion of wolves that are singles/loners = number of wolves in WA.  Doing that kind of math puts washingtons wolf numbers well into the hundreds.  I am still uncertain why they don't report a total estimate...however, all de-listing criteria are based on number and location of bp's...not total numbers so I guess it doesn't really matter from a management standpoint  :dunno:
"It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood..." - TR

Offline fowl smacker

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Re: Survey shows Washington wolf numbers grew by 30% in 2014
« Reply #33 on: March 08, 2015, 07:59:17 AM »
I'm curious what % the deer and elk populations have dropped in those areas where wolf populations have risen.  Does WDFW do a study for that?

Offline mfswallace

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Re: Survey shows Washington wolf numbers grew by 30% in 2014
« Reply #34 on: March 08, 2015, 08:10:37 AM »
I'm curious what % the deer and elk populations have dropped in those areas where wolf populations have risen.  Does WDFW do a study for that?

Hopefully the legislation being discussed gets that ball rolling :bash: Seems pretty ridiculous that this wasn't part of the plan from the beginning  :bash:

Offline wolfbait

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Re: Survey shows Washington wolf numbers grew by 30% in 2014
« Reply #35 on: March 08, 2015, 08:25:25 AM »
I'm curious why they report the wolf population as a minimum number (i.e., at least 68 as of the end of last year). It seems like the more common method for a wildlife survey is to determine a count in a handful of areas and then assume that density exists in other areas and generate an estimate of the total population based on that. Do they not do something similar in this case because the numbers are small compared to other species, or do they assume they have a bead on every wolf pack there is in the state today?
It was protocol established when wolves were reintroduced and makes sense from a species recovery standpoint when they are at low abundance...what is the minimum we know to exist.  WDFW adopted the existing format in part because its identical to what other states were collecting and understood/accepted by USFWS which still has jurisdiction over wolves in the western 2/3 of the state.  Kind of a "lets not re-invent the wheel" approach.  WDFW is very aware they do not have a bead on every pack.  Based on other states data it is often assumed that around 30% of the packs are not identified...so if we know of 16 right now...that would mean they are thinking there is closer to 21 packs in WA. 

As far as your comment about extrapolating estimates to generate an actual total estimate, instead of just a minimum count, I have heard wdfw staff walk people through the simple math...known packs + estimated unknown packs (30%) x average number of wolves in a pack + some portion of wolves that are singles/loners = number of wolves in WA.  Doing that kind of math puts washingtons wolf numbers well into the hundreds.  I am still uncertain why they don't report a total estimate...however, all de-listing criteria are based on number and location of bp's...not total numbers so I guess it doesn't really matter from a management standpoint  :dunno:

If the public had an idea of the actual number of wolves in WA, it would give folks a better idea as to the impact on the ungulates. If you look at the USFWS history it will show they purposely underestimated wolf numbers, WDFW is doing the same.





Offline idahohuntr

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Re: Survey shows Washington wolf numbers grew by 30% in 2014
« Reply #36 on: March 08, 2015, 08:30:47 AM »
WDFW isn't providing estimates...so your allegation they underestimate is bogus. 
"It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood..." - TR

Offline wolfbait

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Re: Survey shows Washington wolf numbers grew by 30% in 2014
« Reply #37 on: March 08, 2015, 08:46:16 AM »
WDFW isn't providing estimates...so your allegation they underestimate is bogus.

So according to you and WDFW there are only 68 wolves in WA?

Low Estimates Hide Extent of Impact

But regardless of the number of breeding pairs counted, central Idaho is saturated with wolves. Other wolf packs and breeding pairs are constantly forming and dispersing to saturate adjacent areas – yet an unknown number of them are never included in the current year’s minimum estimated wolf population.

It can be argued that most of these undocumented wolves will probably be documented sooner or later if they remain in the area, since 17 new packs were reportedly documented in 2007. But by pretending that the minimum estimate reflects the actual number of wolves, officials and the media downplay their negative impact.


The Real FWS Wolf Recovery Agenda

That agenda has been promoted in “Society for Conservation Biology” publications by federal biologists involved in wolf recovery since Canadian wolves were first transplanted. David Mech’s “The Challenge and Opportunity of Recovering Wolf Populations” appeared in the 1995 Volume. 9(2) issue of “Conservation Biology.”

In 2001, environmental groups, including The Nature Conservancy and the World Wildlife Fund, joined with the National Park Service in creating a more sophisticated magazine called “Conservation Magazine” designed to sell the wildlands/biodiversity agenda to academia. In 2004 FWS Wolf Team Leader Ed Bangs praised a BS thesis by a biology student concerning non- lethal wolf “control” (later published in Conservation) and announced he had hired her as a wolf “specialist”.

Wildlife biologists in all three recovery states knew about the numbers deception but only Wyoming G&F, under pressure from its Governor, attempted to hold FWS to the original de-listing criteria. IDFG Director Groen’s Jan. 14th News Release declared the Department’s intention only to “stabilize” (halt the dramatic annual increase in) existing wolf populations in Idaho.

Because IDFG estimates Idaho had a minimum population of 732 wolves in the fall of 2007 that means F&G intended to maintain a minimum of at least seven times as many wolves in Idaho as we were told would exist after recovery. But pretending that the biologists’ estimated minimum fall wolf population is near the actual wolf population is simply another deception misleading Idahoans and their elected officials as will be illustrated later in this article. Read more@ http://idahoforwildlife.com/files/pdf/georgeDovel/The%20Outdoorsman%2026%20January%202008%20full%20report.pdfExistence of Many Wolves Ignored


Bangs also explained that it was too difficult to locate individual wolves or small groups of wolves that were not packs and emphasized that the existence of these wolves was not important to recovery. Once the transplanted wolves began pairing and successfully raising young, the Nez Perce and FWS recovery teams declined to investigate sightings of individual wolves or groups of wolves unless they involved livestock killing.

But even then, if the livestock was moved to a different location and/or the wolf predation stopped, any investigation abruptly ceased. In some parts of Idaho where wolf populations are excessive, including the county we live in, local citizens report frustration over the Wolf Teams’ refusal to investigate reports of apparent pack activity unless there is evidence of at least two pups.

The excuse used by the FWS/NezPerce Team for its failure to investigate such activity is that it is too expensive but it also is not interested in recording wolves unless they meet the confirmed wolf criteria agreed upon by Bangs, Ted Koch and Steve Fritts in 1994. The exception is the need to radio-collar one or more wolves to facilitate removal of one or more members of a pack that continues to kill livestock.

Wolf Numbers Underestimated

There are so many variables involved in attempting to estimate the total number of wolves in a state that any such estimate is prone to large errors even with the best information available. But when the existence of every wolf that has not been part of a “collared” pack is ignored, any such estimate is suspect.

For example, local residents reported several wolf packs in Boise County yet FWS had documented only two. When the Team finally documented the existence of three more packs there were 2-1/2 times as many wolf packs as had been recorded and a similar increase in the number of breeding pairs – indicated both by pups and by yearlings that were born in the prior year and survived.

Although FWS goes back and adjusts the number of breeding pairs for the prior year when this evidence is documented, this system always results in initially underestimating both total wolves and breeding pairs. Recovery goals in all three states were met at least 2-3 years before then current FWS estimates said they were, yet the actual number of breeding pairs was not admitted and recorded until after the fact.

In the future the policy of including only the wolves in currently documented packs in the “minimum estimate” could result in wolves being declared below the recovery minimum of 10 breeding pairs in any of the three areas when the actual number of breeding pairs could be 2- 3 times what is estimated. Theoretically this could result in wolves being declared threatened in one or all three states and an end to state wolf management.

http://idahoforwildlife.com/files/pdf/georgeDovel/The%20Outdoorsman%2026%20January%202008%20full%20report.pdf

Offline idahohuntr

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Re: Survey shows Washington wolf numbers grew by 30% in 2014
« Reply #38 on: March 08, 2015, 09:25:17 AM »


WDFW isn't providing estimates...so your allegation they underestimate is bogus.

So according to you and WDFW there are only 68 wolves in WA?
No. That is a common lie that you like to spread in your campaign of misinformation and deceit. WDFW nor I believe there are only 68 wolves in Washington. Nobody except you has ever made such a ridiculous claim.  Distorting minimum counts are a common tactic of fringe groups grasping at straws.  It's pathetic.
"It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood..." - TR

Offline Special T

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Re: Survey shows Washington wolf numbers grew by 30% in 2014
« Reply #39 on: March 08, 2015, 10:51:02 AM »
The fact that Wa chose such a High BP # Compared with other states with more remote land AND Given the fact that Packs are centered around breeding...Is it really necessary to Prove the wolves are pupping?

The whole premise of the wolf plan was designed to be slow played. The different Zones, High burden of proof to document, the high numbers are all designed to give ample room to delay.

Insufficient funds are a claimed culprit for not getting more packs and BPs documented... Offers of financial help are turned down because of Optics. (Cattlemen Association, RMEF) Yet they accept $, Help and resources from anti hunting groups. (DoW, CNW...) None of these organizations put $ or time into documenting, just protecting... Prevention of coming off the protection lists...
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Offline bobcat

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Re: Survey shows Washington wolf numbers grew by 30% in 2014
« Reply #40 on: March 08, 2015, 10:57:14 AM »
Wolfbait, do you honestly believe the things that you write on here?  :o   :dunno:

Offline mfswallace

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Re: Survey shows Washington wolf numbers grew by 30% in 2014
« Reply #41 on: March 08, 2015, 10:59:11 AM »


WDFW isn't providing estimates...so your allegation they underestimate is bogus.

So according to you and WDFW there are only 68 wolves in WA?
No. That is a common lie that you like to spread in your campaign of misinformation and deceit. WDFW nor I believe there are only 68 wolves in Washington. Nobody except you has ever made such a ridiculous claim.  Distorting minimum counts are a common tactic of fringe groups grasping at straws.  It's pathetic.

Sounds like an Obama ism idhuntr

U can't have it both ways and since your not part of wdfw I'll leave you out of this but it doesn't take a genius to figure out they aren't telling the  full truth! Even a soccer player can figure it out--" If you don't give education to people, it is easy to manipulate them"- Pele

Offline mfswallace

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Re: Survey shows Washington wolf numbers grew by 30% in 2014
« Reply #42 on: March 08, 2015, 11:00:50 AM »
Wolfbait, do you honestly believe the things that you write on here?  :o   :dunno:

U don't agree with anything he puts up?

Offline Special T

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Re: Survey shows Washington wolf numbers grew by 30% in 2014
« Reply #43 on: March 08, 2015, 11:05:17 AM »
I dont agree with everything WB asserts, BUT it is not hard to see how he has those opinions considering all the 3rd party documentation he has provided.

If you just look at the overall trend of actions taken by the WDFW AND the USFS its not hard to see that the BOTH are are interested in doing everything in thier power to saturate wolves across the landscape. While Many of us think this is a bad idea Healthy skepticism of their actions does not make us crazy or  :tinfoil:

The WDFW and the USFS hs done nothing to EARN the trust of sportsmen on this issue. If anything  they have proven otherwise.
In archery we have something like the way of the superior man. When the archer misses the center of the target, he turns round and seeks for the cause of his failure in himself. 

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Offline mfswallace

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Re: Survey shows Washington wolf numbers grew by 30% in 2014
« Reply #44 on: March 08, 2015, 11:12:32 AM »
I dont agree with everything WB asserts, BUT it is not hard to see how he has those opinions considering all the 3rd party documentation he has provided.

If you just look at the overall trend of actions taken by the WDFW AND the USFS its not hard to see that the BOTH are are interested in doing everything in thier power to saturate wolves across the landscape. While Many of us think this is a bad idea Healthy skepticism of their actions does not make us crazy or  :tinfoil:

The WDFW and the USFS hs done nothing to EARN the trust of sportsmen on this issue. If anything  they have proven otherwise.


I use WB's posts and other sources to form my opinion but Bobcat's post seems to outright dismiss his info. Why else would he use the emoticons he did...

 


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