GMU 239/224/231 - Methow/Twisp

[bigmacc]

I remember a couple guys who would come into our camp every year and sit around the fire. Good guys, both worked for USPS, we called em “the postmen”. We usually had a dozen or so hanging (only about 15 in camp at these times), they would say, “we always know we can come to your camp and see bucks”. They came and stopped by our camp for 20 or so years, they never killed a buck as far as I know. There were years they’d been there for 8 or 10 days and said they’d never seen a deer!. We would see these guys at some trailheads that were good. I just don’t know if they knew how to hunt. We would point them in a direction or two where we knew they would have an opportunity but only to have them check in with us and say”seen nothing “.

[mountainman]

This thread is disappointing to me. This is my first year hunting and I was really hoping to get into some animals in these areas. Looks like it will be a bit of a challenge.


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Dont listen to it.  i have been hunting there for over 30 years and saw more deer this year then i ever have!  The trick is you have to get out of your truck!  most of the hunters in these areas just like to drive around in there fancy trucks with the heater on and then complain there are no deer as they drive back down to there 40foot RV and watch a movie!   lol.   plenty of deer!  you just have to know where they are and go after them!  or just cross your fingers and hope you get lucky like most do!

Lol, sure, those people existed in the 80s too.  They’d come into the gas station sad they hadn’t seen a deer, while that morning I had been out hunting for an hour and counted 250 or so.   I’d be hard pressed to do that nowadays, even for the day.   I hunted hard all day yesterday and came up with 12 bucks including 3 whities.   Pretty slow day for me.  Interesting enough, I only saw one two point.   Makes me wonder about fawn recruitment. 

I’m pretty sure I mentioned wolves in 2016 and I am still mentioning them in 2023.  Still the same piss poor management and still the same outcome.

This👆

[NOCK NOCK]

I’m not saying deer numbers aren’t wayyy down.

2016 timeline had zero talk of cats or bears, and only Bone mentioned wolves. All the posts referenced to human caused mortalities.

So I’m learning that predators were still the #1 cause of the herds decline in 2016……(how come you didn’t say it then bigmacc)   why was all the talk about fires/ habitat/ winter range /hunter doe kills?   

[bigmacc]

I’m not saying deer numbers aren’t wayyy down.

2016 timeline had zero talk of cats or bears, and only Bone mentioned wolves. All the posts referenced to human caused mortalities.

So I’m learning that predators were still the #1 cause of the herds decline in 2016……(how come you didn’t say it then bigmacc)   why was all the talk about fires/ habitat/ winter range /hunter doe kills?   

I will answer respectfully, look at my latest post. Multifaceted. I’ll say it again. Almost 30 years have passed since the demise of our Game Department AND when we took the gloves off as far as how we handled predators. A lot can happen in 3 decades. Slowly. Predators did not explode over night. Mother Nature has wreaked havoc since the beginning of time, folks have homesteaded and encroached for 100,s of years. Game numbers, well, up and down. I’m not concerned with what happened a thousand years ago or even 100. What we have now concerning our herds has happened in the last 50 let’s say. The demise of a true”Game Department”, the demise of controlling multiple predators that are more knowledgeable than us at killing and they do it 24/ 7/365. And the introduction of another predator….. guess what, they want to introduce another! At least officially 😆👍 I don’t know you, I get where your coming from but if your as old as me, tell me how many cougars you used to see, or sign, tell me how many bear you seen, tell me how much wolf sign you see, coyote? Hell, I shot 6 this year! I still carry a bear tag and a cat tag in my wallet. I’m going back to the 50,s. Deer and Elk were managed for hunters, not predators back in those days. The better the herds, the more money came in. You know what, more money comes in nowadays from antis. Predators are being managed and coddled to stop hunting in this state. I won’t be around when it happens but it will happen, I promise. 3 relatives that work for different game department’s, this state is the worst.

[baldopepper]

Not saying that wolves are not part of the problem, but how do you explain the dramatic decline in deer herds throughout.the west, including those without wolves?  Utah, Colorado. Nevada are all reporting big declines in their herds.To think that wolves are the major cause is obviously just not true.  Wolves are just part of a big puzzle that no game management people have been able or are willing to address. Don't get me wrong, I don't like em around- but we can't put all our efforts to restore herds into the wolf fight.

. 

[NOCK NOCK]

Not saying that wolves are not part of the problem, but how do you explain the dramatic decline in deer herds throughout.the west, including those without wolves?  Utah, Colorado. Nevada are all reporting big declines in their herds.To think that wolves are the major cause is obviously just not true.  Wolves are just part of a big puzzle that no game management people have been able or are willing to address. Don't get me wrong, I don't like em around- but we can't put all our efforts to restore herds into the wolf fight.

.

Winner winner!

Compare the states 2 biggest muley herds.
1 has had a lot more wolves than the other, and for a lot longer.
BOTH herds are in the dumps.
What’s the difference?

@bigmacc. I see way less predators now than I did in the good ole days.
Why? Because there is currently less food available (ungulates)to sustain them? (Sorry forgot punctuation)

You state you carry bear/coug tags every year, and that you see them,and sign of them everywhere.
How many of each have YOU killed in the last 10 years?

[Mtnwalker]

Not saying that wolves are not part of the problem, but how do you explain the dramatic decline in deer herds throughout.the west, including those without wolves?  Utah, Colorado. Nevada are all reporting big declines in their herds.To think that wolves are the major cause is obviously just not true.  Wolves are just part of a big puzzle that no game management people have been able or are willing to address. Don't get me wrong, I don't like em around- but we can't put all our efforts to restore herds into the wolf fight.

.

Winner winner!

Compare the states 2 biggest muley herds.
1 has had a lot more wolves than the other, and for a lot longer.
BOTH herds are in the dumps.
What’s the difference?

@bigmacc. I see way less predators now than I did in the good ole days.
Why? Because there is currently less food available (ungulates)to sustain them.

You state you carry bear/coug tags every year, and that you see them,and sign of them everywhere.
How many of each have YOU killed in the last 10 years?

Just to clarify here, are you stating that predator populations are actually lower now than in previous decades?

[baldopepper]

Not saying that wolves are not part of the problem, but how do you explain the dramatic decline in deer herds throughout.the west, including those without wolves?  Utah, Colorado. Nevada are all reporting big declines in their herds.To think that wolves are the major cause is obviously just not true.  Wolves are just part of a big puzzle that no game management people have been able or are willing to address. Don't get me wrong, I don't like em around- but we can't put all our efforts to restore herds into the wolf fight.

.

Winner winner!

Compare the states 2 biggest muley herds.
1 has had a lot more wolves than the other, and for a lot longer.
BOTH herds are in the dumps.
What’s the difference?

@bigmacc. I see way less predators now than I did in the good ole days.
Why? Because there is currently less food available (ungulates)to sustain them.

You state you carry bear/coug tags every year, and that you see them,and sign of them everywhere.
How many of each have YOU killed in the last 10 years?

Just to clarify here, are you stating that predator populations are actually lower now than in previous decades?

Personally not saying that. I'm confident that lion numbers are way up.  My point is simply looking at other states with no wolves and very active predator control, deer numbers are still in decline. Obviously there are other factors having a bigger impact than wolves.  Do I think we need keep the predator population in balance?  Yes!  But thinking we can wipe them out and the deer and elk populations will suddenly boom again is a fallacy. The human encroachment factor is a far bigger contributor in my opinion, and also that of biologists in states with no wolves and active predator control.

[NOCK NOCK]

Not saying that wolves are not part of the problem, but how do you explain the dramatic decline in deer herds throughout.the west, including those without wolves?  Utah, Colorado. Nevada are all reporting big declines in their herds.To think that wolves are the major cause is obviously just not true.  Wolves are just part of a big puzzle that no game management people have been able or are willing to address. Don't get me wrong, I don't like em around- but we can't put all our efforts to restore herds into the wolf fight.

.

Winner winner!

Compare the states 2 biggest muley herds.
1 has had a lot more wolves than the other, and for a lot longer.
BOTH herds are in the dumps.
What’s the difference?

@bigmacc. I see way less predators now than I did in the good ole days.
Why? Because there is currently less food available (ungulates)to sustain them.

You state you carry bear/coug tags every year, and that you see them,and sign of them everywhere.
How many of each have YOU killed in the last 10 years?

Just to clarify here, are you stating that predator populations are actually lower now than in previous decades?

Nope, I simply forgot to add a question mark after”sustain them”
(Only The big guy upstairs can answer that question.)

[NOCK NOCK]

Not saying that wolves are not part of the problem, but how do you explain the dramatic decline in deer herds throughout.the west, including those without wolves?  Utah, Colorado. Nevada are all reporting big declines in their herds.To think that wolves are the major cause is obviously just not true.  Wolves are just part of a big puzzle that no game management people have been able or are willing to address. Don't get me wrong, I don't like em around- but we can't put all our efforts to restore herds into the wolf fight.

.

Winner winner!

Compare the states 2 biggest muley herds.
1 has had a lot more wolves than the other, and for a lot longer.
BOTH herds are in the dumps.
What’s the difference?

@bigmacc. I see way less predators now than I did in the good ole days.
Why? Because there is currently less food available (ungulates)to sustain them.

You state you carry bear/coug tags every year, and that you see them,and sign of them everywhere.
How many of each have YOU killed in the last 10 years?

Just to clarify here, are you stating that predator populations are actually lower now than in previous decades?

Personally not saying that. I'm confident that lion numbers are way up.  My point is simply looking at other states with no wolves and very active predator control, deer numbers are still in decline. Obviously there are other factors having a bigger impact than wolves.  Do I think we need keep the predator population in balance?  Yes!  But thinking we can wipe them out and the deer and elk populations will suddenly boom again is a fallacy. The human encroachment factor is a far bigger contributor in my opinion, and also that of biologists in states with no wolves and active predator control.

X 1 million.
Somebody gets it 

[bigmacc]

Not saying that wolves are not part of the problem, but how do you explain the dramatic decline in deer herds throughout.the west, including those without wolves?  Utah, Colorado. Nevada are all reporting big declines in their herds.To think that wolves are the major cause is obviously just not true.  Wolves are just part of a big puzzle that no game management people have been able or are willing to address. Don't get me wrong, I don't like em around- but we can't put all our efforts to restore herds into the wolf fight.

.

Winner winner!

Compare the states 2 biggest muley herds.
1 has had a lot more wolves than the other, and for a lot longer.
BOTH herds are in the dumps.
What’s the difference?

@bigmacc. I see way less predators now than I did in the good ole days.
Why? Because there is currently less food available (ungulates)to sustain them? (Sorry forgot punctuation)

You state you carry bear/coug tags every year, and that you see them,and sign of them everywhere.
How many of each have YOU killed in the last 10 years?

Our group has killed 9 bears and 3 cats in the last 10 years(5-8 folks). Toped off with about 20 yotes give or take, I killed 2 this year in only 2 days of deer hunting. I couldn’t be there the whole season because of some procedures my wife needed done.  How many have we seen in the last 20 years? A heck of a lot! We really only started hunting predators in the last 5-6 years. One pre season scouting trip 5-6 years ago my son and I seen 4 cougars over about a 4 day span, all different cats in different areas. I won’t mention where but there are some on here that know the areas. That’s pretty much when we decided to start focusing/learning how to hunt predators. I myself really have never put much thought into it until then. Seeing 4 cats in 4 days in different areas amazed me. Then after talking with local ranchers I know in the valley and what they see on leased land and in the high country it convinced me that predators were and are becoming a major threat to the herd in the Methow. Up until that 4day span a handful of years ago or so I myself had only seen maybe 3-4 cougars in my life going back 60 years roaming those hills. I have a few cameras out also in a few different areas, last year we had 6 bears, 4 cats and a handful of coyotes on those cameras. 2 of those bears were killed during deer season last year. The cats are a little trickier, we’re still learning👍

[NOCK NOCK]

How many have YOU killed?

Also please explain to me your thoughts on why there are so few deer, yet massive #'s of cats. (Yes, I know the cats kill deer and many other things)
What are the cats eating as to make their populations expand so much?  Seems it would be a tough living trying to keep all the kittens fed when the deer are nearly extinct.

[bigmacc]

How many have YOU killed?

Also please explain to me your thoughts on why there are so few deer, yet massive #'s of cats. (Yes, I know the cats kill deer and many other things)
What are the cats eating as to make their populations expand so much?  Seems it would be a tough living trying to keep all the kittens fed when the deer are nearly extinct.

2 bear and probably 6 or 7 coyotes (killed 2 yotes this past season in 2days). 

I don’t know your turf as you probably don’t know mine the way others on here as well as myself do. I’m not saying nor is anybody saying the Methow is null and void of deer, are numbers down? Hell yes. I remember 30 years and more ago I would see 1-200 deer per day while hunting, even someone who didn’t know the valley of “the spots” but knew how to hunt could see 50 a day. They estimate this herd at 15k give or take, I remember when it was 40k give or take and seeing a bear or a cougar was really cool! The predators have been eating well in the Methow for awhile now, will there be a “tipping point” when predators move out or die off from lack of prey? I would think so. When, I have no idea but talking with folks who do know this kind of stuff it could be 5 years from now or 20 if predators are left unchecked and un managed. There’s no denying the Methow herd is a mere shadow of what numbers were, what’s changed? Well, there’s fires of which there’s been since the beginning of time, there’s brutal winters as there have been since the beginning of time, there’s people and encroachment which started back in the 70,s when the pass opened. As I’ve always said concerning this herd, it’s multifaceted. We lost our game Department, they had this herd as their golden child, agree or disagree with some of what they did, this herd was their “baby”. Did they make mistakes, you bet but there’s no denying this herds health was job 1. We lost how we handled and controlled predators around the same time along with a “new apex” predator “showing up”. Politics entered the realm of management in the valley. The herd dropped down a few rungs on the ladder as far as priority, predators moved up. Once again, my……. MY Number 1 reason this particular herd(Methow, not your turf) is struggling and will continue to is predators and lack of management of those predators. When will the tipping point happen when herd numbers drop to a point that can’t sustain large numbers of predators? I do not know, I do know that there have been a few “skinny looking, malnourished cats” that have been seen over the last few years, the beginning of the tipping point, I don’t know.

[mcrawfordaf]

"Hence, our findings build on several previous studies (Kertson et al. 2011a, Moss et al. 2016a, Smith et al. 2016, Blecha et al. 2018) that underscore the dietary flexibility of cougars and suggest that individuals in urbanized environments may be able to persist and perhaps mitigate intra-specific competition for traditional prey by exploiting human-associated food."

I'd suggest reading through this study https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecs2.2605

Cougar are incredibly adaptable and are known to supplement their other preferred meals (ungulates) with beaver and other rodents as well as human provided meals.

As far as other mule deer herds in other parts of the US, those declines are accounted for - typically due to severe winters or draughts. Currently half of the Mule Deer jurisdiction in the US are "in decline" while the other half are either increasing or stable. I noticed the largest declines in Oregon, Wyoming and Colorado. WA is hard to account for since WDFW doesn't do the work to separate our species for harvest statistics.

https://wafwa.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/2023-Rangewide-Status-of-Black-tailed-and-Mule-Deer_Linked.pdf

As most have said, its obviously a combination of factors leading to mule deer herds decreasing and increasing but all studies continue to show the vast majority of mule deer deaths are via predation whether at 0-6mos or as an adult.

I just read "Touching the Wild" by Joe Hutto this month and would highly recommend it to anyone interested in Mule Deer conservation. I'm currently reading through Ecology and Management of Black-Tailed and Mule Deer in North America and Rangeland Wildlife Ecology and Conservation. Both of these are very eye opening into the world of Mule Deer and their historic populations/ranges.

Fewer predators, more habitat 

[bigmacc]

"Hence, our findings build on several previous studies (Kertson et al. 2011a, Moss et al. 2016a, Smith et al. 2016, Blecha et al. 2018) that underscore the dietary flexibility of cougars and suggest that individuals in urbanized environments may be able to persist and perhaps mitigate intra-specific competition for traditional prey by exploiting human-associated food."

I'd suggest reading through this study https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecs2.2605

Cougar are incredibly adaptable and are known to supplement their other preferred meals (ungulates) with beaver and other rodents as well as human provided meals.

As far as other mule deer herds in other parts of the US, those declines are accounted for - typically due to severe winters or draughts. Currently half of the Mule Deer jurisdiction in the US are "in decline" while the other half are either increasing or stable. I noticed the largest declines in Oregon, Wyoming and Colorado. WA is hard to account for since WDFW doesn't do the work to separate our species for harvest statistics.

https://wafwa.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/2023-Rangewide-Status-of-Black-tailed-and-Mule-Deer_Linked.pdf

As most have said, its obviously a combination of factors leading to mule deer herds decreasing and increasing but all studies continue to show the vast majority of mule deer deaths are via predation whether at 0-6mos or as an adult.

I just read "Touching the Wild" by Joe Hutto this month and would highly recommend it to anyone interested in Mule Deer conservation. I'm currently reading through Ecology and Management of Black-Tailed and Mule Deer in North America and Rangeland Wildlife Ecology and Conservation. Both of these are very eye opening into the world of Mule Deer and their historic populations/ranges.

Fewer predators, more habitat 

👍 I have read a few of those studies. 👍 thanks for posting, I ain’t smurt enough to post those links and such😆