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Quote from: jmscon on October 13, 2016, 08:41:30 PMI need to be enlightened. Why is the windy crappy weather so good for blacktail hunting?If it's like that it basically hides all your mistakes! It covers your noise, your scent, your movement, it's all hidden by the weather when still hunting timber or edges. Wind and rain are your friends when hunting BT! Especially at the end of October when the bucks are moving more and more leaves are off the alders and maples!
I need to be enlightened. Why is the windy crappy weather so good for blacktail hunting?
Most of you are probably more interested in windstorms...so lets consider that now. Right now it appears that the late Thursday/Friday morning event will not be a severe one. One problem for that storm is that we are really working with an initially amorphous, almost double system, rather than a consolidated single strong system.
By Friday afternoon, a more consolidated low passes to our north and a large pressure gradient develops over western WA. As a result, it will get windy during Friday afternoon, with sustained winds reaching 15-25 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph over Puget Sound, stronger over the coast and NW WA. Some power outages, but nothing catastrophic.
But now, lets talk about what you REALLY want to know about. The Saturday storm, which potentially can be much stronger, representing the remnants of Typhoon Songda. The confidence in earlier forecasts were lessened by the different solutions of the US model (GFS) and the vaunted European (ECMWF) model--a classic situation for forecasts. The GFS was going for a historic storm with a central pressure in the 950s mb that hit Vancouver Island, while the ECMWF solution was weaker (960s) and farther south (passing over Seattle!).Well, the new US runs have now shifted to a compromise solution, halfway to the ECMWF track and weaker, but still a remarkably intense storm for our region. And the storm is a bit later.
Two things. This track is the perfect track of strong winds over Puget Sound. Second, the worst windstorms are rapidly intensifying as the make landfall...like this storm.The wind forecast map (for sustained winds) at 11 PM Saturday suggest sustained winds of 25-35 mph, with gusts of 35-65 mph over Puget Sound.
Bottom line: the Saturday storm is the big windstorm threat and has the potential to be one of the strongest windstorms we have seen in a few years. There is still uncertainty in the forecast but it is far less than earlier. Keep in mind what we are trying to do...forecast the exact track and intensity of a storm that is now thousands of miles away and currently very weak. If our track if off by 100 miles, the forecast is radically changed at nearly all locations. It is amazing we can even attempt to do this. So we still have to watch this system very carefully and update the forecast as we get close.
Quote from: finnman on October 13, 2016, 09:09:42 PMQuote from: jmscon on October 13, 2016, 08:41:30 PMI need to be enlightened. Why is the windy crappy weather so good for blacktail hunting?If it's like that it basically hides all your mistakes! It covers your noise, your scent, your movement, it's all hidden by the weather when still hunting timber or edges. Wind and rain are your friends when hunting BT! Especially at the end of October when the bucks are moving more and more leaves are off the alders and maples!What about when your shot opportunity is 100 yards out and the wind is blowing left to right 40mph?
