Storm this weekend...

[JDHasty]

Really doesn't bother me one way or the other.  I was sitting in my stand and would have come down if it got bad enough. 

I'm not any kind of dare devil, but have been in my tree stands in far worse weather than I sat through yesterday. 

[JLS]

I have no dog in this fight, but I find the continued assertions that this was all blown up for TV ratings to be rather arrogant and ignorant.  If you have proof that it was done maliciously and with the intent to inflate TV ratings, I'd love to see it.  Until then, I'll assume that the forecasters who erred are good people who were doing their best to inform people of the severity and dangerousness of the storm.  Those who continue to blather on are really no different than the talking heads on TV that make drama out of nothing.

Carry on.

[JDHasty]

I have no dog in this fight, but I find the continued assertions that this was all blown up for TV ratings to be rather arrogant and ignorant.  If you have proof that it was done maliciously and with the intent to inflate TV ratings, I'd love to see it.  Until then, I'll assume that the forecasters who erred are good people who were doing their best to inform people of the severity and dangerousness of the storm.  Those who continue to blather on are really no different than the talking heads on TV that make drama out of nothing.

Carry on.

If the same indivuals you place such great confidence were not the same individuals who have been banging the phony baloney "global warming" now "climate change" drum for the last two decades I might not believe that there were ulterior motives driving this.

[Fl0und3rz]

The arrogant and ignorant should be afforded the same margin of error as the professionals blathering on about storm of the century.  They just have a smaller megaphone.

[Fullabull]

My son and I gave up our first mule deer hunt together to stay home and make sure my wife was safe during this biggest storm since the 6 0's. He can't go next weekend so we will have to try and find a place for a late season blacktail hunt here on the west side.we live in Sammamish. Any suggestions?

[JDHasty]

I have no dog in this fight, but I find the continued assertions that this was all blown up for TV ratings to be rather arrogant and ignorant.  If you have proof that it was done maliciously and with the intent to inflate TV ratings, I'd love to see it.  Until then, I'll assume that the forecasters who erred are good people who were doing their best to inform people of the severity and dangerousness of the storm.  Those who continue to blather on are really no different than the talking heads on TV that make drama out of nothing.

Carry on.

I don't have television, but every time I was over at my mother's house all week the television was on and half the time the "weather forecasters," were blathering on about "climate change" and how this storm was a symptom of "climate change." 

This anthropogenic catastrophic climate change is a bunch of ideologically driven pseudoscience pure and simple and the people who keep ballyhooing it are charlatans and Mountebanks of the losest order. 

That isn't "proof that it was done maliciously and with the intent to inflate TV ratings," but it certainly does call into question the integrity of the person behind the mouth spewing it.  If, and it is a big IF, "the forces driving" this "global warming" simply erred were good people who had not been doing their best to mislead people re: "global warming" for the last decade or two, then I might be considerably more open to giving the benefit of the doubt here. 

The fact of the matter it it is THEY who, with their ideologically driven corruption of science in the case of this "global warming" nonsense who have given me every reason to have no faith their integrity and to call into question their motives.   

[lamrith]

Big issue I have is that they are always getting it wrong.  If any of us got it wrong that often and that badly at our jobs we would not have a job....

Not to mention how it can significantly affect the general population.  I saw a number of pictures of cleaned out stores, people going out of their way and spending $ to move vehicles, campers, etc, etc to safer locations.  Extremely disruptive and puts an economical hardship on the general population making all these special preparations for no reason at all because the meteorologists can't do their jobs.  If it had been lower wind or something I can get that, but no wind at all.......  It was a total NON storm, we have had random rain storms come thru that were much more damaging.

[JDHasty]

Big issue I have is that they are always getting it wrong.  If any of us got it wrong that often and that badly at our jobs we would not have a job....

Not to mention how it can significantly affect the general population.  I saw a number of pictures of cleaned out stores, people going out of their way and spending $ to move vehicles, campers, etc, etc to safer locations.  Extremely disruptive and puts an economical hardship on the general population making all these special preparations for no reason at all because the meteorologists can't do their jobs.  If it had been lower wind or something I can get that, but no wind at all.......  It was a total NON storm, we have had random rain storms come thru that were much more damaging.

Heck, my 93 year old mother was worried sick all week about everyone in the family.  All she does is sit in front of the television and she believes most of the crap that comes pouring out of it. 

[Knocker of rocks]

Here's what Cliff Mass has to say:

As I will describe in a future blog, this was not a failure so much of the models, but of communication of uncertainty.    My profession has to stop providing the worst case or most probable weather evolution, but provide society with full probabilistic guidance.  Yesterday was a good example of the failure mode when we do not.   The media, such as the Seattle Times and several TV stations, were happy to hype up the storm because of all the interest in such events.   Many events were unnecessarily cancelled or postponed, some on Friday or Saturday morning when there was no chance of strong winds.

The key facts are this:

1.   By two to three days ago is was clear that there was no chance of a Columbus Day storm event. Prior to that, some model forecasts suggest it.
2.    It was clear that a small-sized, but intense low center was going to pass through our region.
3.    A small track error (say 50-100 km over a day) would radically change the forecast at any particular location.
4.    Such a small error was well within forecast uncertainty as revealed by our ensemble (many forecast) systems.
5.   Local meteorologists warned of the worst case situation, but failed to communicate the uncertainty of the prediction.   I tried to talk about track errors, but it is clear that I needed to do much more.

[jackelope]

I'd just love to hear them say, "sorry folks we screwed up again ", for once.

“Yes, our forecast did not turn out as predicted. We are not pleased about it either,” the weather service’s office posted on Facebook  Sunday morning.

http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/weather/western-washington-windstorm-weaker-than-predicted/

They did.  I can't believe everyone is still grumbling about it.  Be thankful everything is okay and move on.

I heard a lot about how this storm was unpredictable and they couldn't say for sure what was going to happen. Predicting a storm that was thousands of miles away is very tough. I don't have any issues with the storm not happening. I'm thankful it didn't happen. It did happen in 2006 and we got pummeled. That was no fun. I didn't go hunting so I could be home with my wife and kid just in case. We had a good family weekend. It is what it is. Rather than bitch, we should be thankful we didn't get blasted.
My

[Knocker of rocks]

Predicting a storm that was thousands of miles away is very tough. I don't have any issues with the storm not happening. I'm thankful it didn't happen. It did happen in 2006 and we got pummeled. That was no fun. I didn't go hunting so I could be home with my wife and kid just in case. We had a good family weekend. It is what it is. Rather than bitch, we should be thankful we didn't get blasted.
My

 

And if I remember right, the 1993 storm blind sided us

[JDHasty]

Here's what Cliff Mass has to say:

As I will describe in a future blog, this was not a failure so much of the models, but of communication of uncertainty.    My profession has to stop providing the worst case or most probable weather evolution, but provide society with full probabilistic guidance.  Yesterday was a good example of the failure mode when we do not.   The media, such as the Seattle Times and several TV stations, were happy to hype up the storm because of all the interest in such events.   Many events were unnecessarily cancelled or postponed, some on Friday or Saturday morning when there was no chance of strong winds.

The key facts are this:

1.  By two to three days ago is was clear that there was no chance of a Columbus Day storm event. Prior to that, some model forecasts suggest it.
2.    It was clear that a small-sized, but intense low center was going to pass through our region.
3.    A small track error (say 50-100 km over a day) would radically change the forecast at any particular location.
4.    Such a small error was well within forecast uncertainty as revealed by our ensemble (many forecast) systems.
5.   Local meteorologists warned of the worst case situation, but failed to communicate the uncertainty of the prediction.   I tried to talk about track errors, but it is clear that I needed to do much more.

That kinda' validates my observations as being more than fairly accurate.