Blacktail Deer Hunting Odds

[Bogie85]

As I sit here thinking about how many ways I may have messed up or if it was just luck based in the first place. How many people strike out each year for deer? I have a colleague who said he's been hunting for 10 years and only landed 3 deer.

Are trail cams really the best thing for increasing your odds? Having never hunted, I feel like I have a super disadvantage. And it seems like I am missing something, seeing that so many people on this board seemed to get one. I am at the point I don't even think going out for late season is worth it.

I sat all day yesterday in a spot I found rubs etc, and never saw a deer at all, it was dead quiet. It's possible I am unlucky and someone shot the buck in that area already. I don't mind failing if I can learn from my failure, but I don't feel like I came away from this any more knowledgeable than before I went out. I saw a total of 5 deer 1 buck and 4 does. I heard 1 grunt and that was it. I am at a loss for what to do next.

I get people not wanting to share spots, I would never fault anyone for that. But I can see why people don't get into hunting now a days. The terrain is rough (not a problem for me), but just seeing anything would at least provide some level of hope.

A follow up question is, how many people think this is just right place right time? And how many people think it's skill, experience, and knowledge? I am not giving up, but I am definitely disappointed. I am at a point of considering paying the 2-3k for a guide just to help gain a knowledge gap that seems to be the biggest hurdle I can't get over. I am interested in peoples opinions.

[savagehunter]

Skill and knowledge leads to eliminating low percentage ground. Focusing on an area that you know holds deer and learning the resident populations feeding bedding and rutting grounds adds to your odds. Time spent hunting should be seen as time in school learning the terrain the animal and your own limitations. Such as if I go in deep and my legs are shot I'm not going to try and sneak through the brush on dead legs I'll find a likely spot and sit  or on the other hand hunting down a drainage on fresh legs I may be covering ground all day and go less than a mile. Finding your style of hunting and enjoying it kill or no kill is what it's all about. As always it's better to be lucky than good but I've found people that get lucky alot spent alot of time getting good. There all re some posts here just from this year alone that can greatly increase your odds by the advice of not a spot but the kind of spot or how to work the wind . As an example opening day of blacktail was clear and 63 degrees my son missed a spike at 915 am. In the same cut 800 yards away an old man was still hunting the reprod I watched him through my spotting scope in 3.5 hours he traveled 150 yards in the Christmas trees literally a couple of steps  every 5 or ten minutes. He killed a forken  horn at 30 yards in its bed. I could never hunt that slow and careful but he showed such skill and patience that I was humbled by my lack of his hunting style. A week later I killed a spike in the same unit at 370 yards.. the difference the old man had keys to the gate  and fresh legs and skill . I on the other hand hiked in three miles got 600 feet above a skid road through the cut and Glassed Glassed glassed. Better smarter no just different. Keep at it you'll either get luck or good

[lokidog]

13 (one not recovered) for the last 12 years, plus two muley does.  For me it is location, location, location.   

[onmygame]

Your buddy that bagged 3 deer in ten years - a 30% success ratio is quite a bit higher than the annual average state wide.

That said, it is likely 80% of the deer are harvested each year by a constant 20% of the hunters.

As stated previously in this thread - location, and your knowledge of it as well as your continued study and  understanding of deer behavior puts the odds in your favor.

Don't expect success each year until you've proven yourself to be successful each year - year after year.

The best of luck.

[Bogie85]

Skill and knowledge leads to eliminating low percentage ground. Focusing on an area that you know holds deer and learning the resident populations feeding bedding and rutting grounds adds to your odds. Time spent hunting should be seen as time in school learning the terrain the animal and your own limitations. Such as if I go in deep and my legs are shot I'm not going to try and sneak through the brush on dead legs I'll find a likely spot and sit  or on the other hand hunting down a drainage on fresh legs I may be covering ground all day and go less than a mile. Finding your style of hunting and enjoying it kill or no kill is what it's all about. As always it's better to be lucky than good but I've found people that get lucky alot spent alot of time getting good. There all re some posts here just from this year alone that can greatly increase your odds by the advice of not a spot but the kind of spot or how to work the wind . As an example opening day of blacktail was clear and 63 degrees my son missed a spike at 915 am. In the same cut 800 yards away an old man was still hunting the reprod I watched him through my spotting scope in 3.5 hours he traveled 150 yards in the Christmas trees literally a couple of steps  every 5 or ten minutes. He killed a forken  horn at 30 yards in its bed. I could never hunt that slow and careful but he showed such skill and patience that I was humbled by my lack of his hunting style. A week later I killed a spike in the same unit at 370 yards.. the difference the old man had keys to the gate  and fresh legs and skill . I on the other hand hiked in three miles got 600 feet above a skid road through the cut and Glassed Glassed glassed. Better smarter no just different. Keep at it you'll either get luck or good

I am afraid I glassed and possibly missed some too. Not knowing exactly what to look for and how slow to glass probably doesn't help. I am like you and somewhat impatient, and want to at least see something or hear something. I need to read the threads on here, because I have read boyd's books and they helped to some degree but didn't really help me find the right spots to hunt. My hope is to gain the knowledge to put me in the right places. And than just hope that I am there during the right time. I have even considered just doing archery in king county since no one hunts over here.

[Bogie85]

Your buddy that bagged 3 deer in ten years - a 30% success ratio is quite a bit higher than the annual average state wide.

That said, it is likely 80% of the deer are harvested each year by a constant 20% of the hunters.

As stated previously in this thread - location, and your knowledge of it as well as your continued study and  understanding of deer behavior puts the odds in your favor.

Don't expect success each year until you've proven yourself to be successful each year - year after year.

The best of luck.

That makes sense, yeah I am trying to learn more about their patterns. I did learn where they typically bed. And how they usually avoid clear cuts it seems and try to move around the clear cut if they can. Nothing worth having is easy anyways, I am just feeling the burn of tag soup so far lol. But I know I learned a lot that I can apply to next year, I just know that means I still have a lot more to learn .

[Bogie85]

13 (one not recovered) for the last 12 years, plus two muley does.  For me it is location, location, location.   

I think that's my biggest problem so far, is knowing the right location. I paid for a weyerhauser permit and there haven't been a ton of people. But it's still pretty well covered, I am 90% sure the buck I found and had been trailing someone got before I could. Which makes me want to get further out away from roads even more etc.

[Tiger1358]

Just spend your free time this and next year just doing scouting. On weekends, holidays, or any other day that you have to lay on the couch do nothing, find different places and do a lotta scouting. Even if you can't get out, check out the forums(hunting, fishing, hiking), maps, and so forth.
If u got a bike, use it to get anywhere easier and faster, if not, you can find a really good one for less 100 bucks easily. I got my Giant mt bike in a pretty much new condition for 80 bucks that costs at least $500 at the stores.
Ride behind the gates to learn the places or hike the trails.If you go where it's easy for most people to go, you won't find crap unless you get lucky.  The more time you put in for scouting, the better you will be. This season wasn't as good for me because I didn't do any scouting due to my long absence from the country.
I personally would never-ever hire a guide, even for a specific animal that I have absolutely no clue about, I'd rather study myself and do everything myself. I'd rather fail for a year, but learn how to get them by myself next year, rather than paying 3K just for being taken to a spot where you both know you'll see deer for sure and just paying $3000 just to experience that moment of shooting it, meeeh. I don't think you'll learn much IMO. Just easy hunt, taking cool pictures, and meat in the freezer, not much learned, no challenges, no adventures. (no offense to hunting guides here). if you just wanna do it once in a lifetime just to experience it, yes, hire a guide, if you wanna hunt for the rest of your life, do it yourself.
If you ever got questions, post the question and people will do their best to help you here.

[fishnfur]

I never saw a deer the first year I hunted.  In my mind, if you're fairly new to hunting, then you've had a good year so far.  Saw some animals, learned some stuff, made some mistakes.  It's all part of the process.  WDFW states that nearly 50% of the harvest comes during the late season.  Four days when leaves are gone, deer are moving, and you can see.  No way I'd quit now. 

Though the season is closed tomorrow, that doesn't stop you from going in the woods and scouting (wear hunter orange - it's crazy out there when the modern elk guys hit the woods). Glass some new reprod. Go back to where you saw does and try to find them again.  Bucks are moving till they find a hot doe.  They hang out with her for 48 hours or so then move on to find another.  Try to guess the way bucks are moving through the woods. Look for pinch points that restrict their traffic. Find a vantage point in an area with a lot of fresh sign. 

Keep your chin up. This is supposed to be fun, but also, rarely is it easy. It can be very frustrating at times but that can all end in a split second when a buck suddenly shows himself.  It happens so quick that you have trouble believing what just went down before your eyes.  Enjoy it for what it is - a chance to challenge yourself, be in the woods, and attempt to outsmart a critter with exceptional survival instincts. It will be over in the blink of an eye.  Come January, you'll regret it if you didn't give it your best effort.

[JimmyHoffa]

Really depends on what you're after and where you go to get a sense of the odds.  You really have to put some thinking into the harvest reports--like how many are blasted on private property that has few predators and lots of food.  Then you have to think about what comes off tree farms/logged areas, overgrown forest circus land and then the high country.   

[skagitsteel]

I’d say 10% of the hunters kill 90% of the deer. Sure sometimes luck is involved but you will find That often the same guys are ’consistentlty lucky’ every year. 

If you are consistently looking in the right place the ‘right place right time’ will happen. One tidbit there is its easy to run and gun all over the place looking for a ‘new spot’ the reality is most spots hold deer and it will be your knowledge of that particular spot that will lead to your success.

[JakeLand]

I’d say 10% of the hunters kill 90% of the deer. Sure sometimes luck is involved but you will find That often the same guys are ’consistentlty lucky’ every year. 

If you are consistently looking in the right place the ‘right place right time’ will happen. One tidbit there is its easy to run and gun all over the place looking for a ‘new spot’ the reality is most spots hold deer and it will be your knowledge of that particular spot that will lead to your success.

well said

[SeaRun1]

I would definitely say that you need to find a good area and learn it.  If you can find rubs (multiple) you can find Blacktail.  Don’t get caught up running around everywhere.  Learn a spot, have some faith and the shot will come if you put your time in.

SR1

[JBar]

Patience and glassing pays off, this is the crap my buck this year was bedded in. Patch of alder saplings in a ravine with lots of slash and blow down.

[Turner89]

"Keep your chin up. This is supposed to be fun, but also, rarely is it easy. It can be very frustrating at times but that can all end in a split second when a buck suddenly shows himself.  It happens so quick that you have trouble believing what just went down before your eyes.  Enjoy it for what it is - a chance to challenge yourself, be in the woods, and attempt to outsmart a critter with exceptional survival instincts. It will be over in the blink of an eye.  Come January, you'll regret it if you didn't give it your best effort."
Fishnfur hit the nail on the head
The hunt is the best part of the it. I had my most favorite BT season yet last year. Hunted harder and more days than I ever had the chance to in the past......and i didn't get one last year either.
I'd go buy a bear tag and cougar tag if you dont already have them. Go out this weekend and find a gut pile to sit over. You might get yourself one of the above, coyote or bobcat.  You will most likely see the buck you weren't able to get this year.
Also, noticed you posted at 4:30pm on Halloween.