The chance at a chance (drawing odds/%)

[Bullkllr]

Little off subject do you guys think an elk tag that's is more than say 100 to 1 to get IE 5 tags 600 people want  (take the points out to make the math simple) should be a once in a life time? If our drawn you can't put in for that tag again? I know total hypothetical, because the WDFW will never do, because of loss of revenue. Just thinking out loud.

No.
That would be a heck of a precedent. Would it have to cover all "Quality" and/or "Bull" tags to even make sense? Otherwise those that drew one OIL elk would simply apply for the next one on the list the next year.
The OILs should be reserved for those species that are very limited in range and could never sustain a general season. I suppose if the elk population continues the present trend we could get there; hopefully after I'm done because that would be a very sorry thing.

[jeffitz]

Wow Fletch - 4 any bull tags ? Youre a lucky dude - been trying for twenty years and never drew one !

[slowhand]

What tags have you pulled in the past? How long have you been putting in? 
Not what GMU, I know people don't want to share that.
Example
Mine
I have put in on and off for 10 years+
Muzzle loader cow tag 5 points
Modern Doe tag 4 points
Modern any bull (peaches) had to add location to that one  5 points
Modern Cow tag 5 points
2nd Deer tag 3 points
That's My luck and experience. How about You guys. Share Your pain and success.

[Slow-1]

Ok I’m good with any elk tag that has greater than 100 to 1 odds you get one in a life time.
Here is a prime example  ” I have benefited from the any bull tags I won’t complain... but... drawn in 2002 2005 2010 2017 so a pattern has formed 3 yrs 5 yrs 7 yrs so I can expect to maybe get drawn in 9 yrs now”
Every time someone draws another tag in a hard to get area some else doesn’t get a tag.

[BeerBugler]

ELK-
Peaches archery the year BEFORE the big split (2008)?
Mountainview archery
White river modern
Deer-
Tucannon Muzzle
(3) second deer tags
Bear-
(3) spring bear NE
OIL- ..........this year!

[Magnum_Willys]

If a tag is greater than 100:1 its basically oil anyway so wdfw would say why lose the revenue....   now the peaches / goose prairies have moved to oil and the blues nil....

[JimmyHoffa]

Ok I’m good with any elk tag that has greater than 100 to 1 odds you get one in a life time.
Here is a prime example  ” I have benefited from the any bull tags I won’t complain... but... drawn in 2002 2005 2010 2017 so a pattern has formed 3 yrs 5 yrs 7 yrs so I can expect to maybe get drawn in 9 yrs now”
Every time someone draws another tag in a hard to get area some else doesn’t get a tag.

Or 11 years if the pattern is always prime numbers. 

[Stein]

It all depends on your perspective.  If I were king, they would be OIL along with a bunch of other changes.  That's not the only perspective though and with the Department, revenue is at the top of the list so we won't be seeing them trim the application pool anytime soon.  We have a long odds lottery and it will stay that way as long as they can issue at least one tag in each category.

[Slow-1]

I understand this will never happen do to loss of revenue. I'm just pointing out that some people beats the odds way more than most.

If it was up to me you would purchase one application for say $50.00. That had one slot for a single hunt, be that deer, elk sheep, goat, moose. That way you could apply for what you really want.

[SuperX]

in the face of unmanaged predators and unregulated tribal hunting, it seems irresponsible to manage elk for quality and not for growth.  Seeing how feeble the chances of drawing are, it seems foolhardy to cling to a system that gives a handful of hunters a > 1% chance to draw a chance to shoot a "Quality" elk instead of focusing on getting elk to the carrying capacity of the land and to expanding their range in the state. 
 

[boneaddict]

I understand this will never happen do to loss of revenue. I'm just pointing out that some people beats the odds way more than most.

If it was up to me you would purchase one application for say $50.00. That had one slot for a single hunt, be that deer, elk sheep, goat, moose. That way you could apply for what you really want.

You mean like IDAHO!

[slowhand]

Is there zero chance that animal numbers will increase in the future?
offering more opportunity?

[SuperX]

Is there zero chance that animal numbers will increase in the future?
offering more opportunity?

the past informs the future

[Stein]

Is there zero chance that animal numbers will increase in the future?
offering more opportunity?

No, but long term trends are hard to buck.  Those trends are fewer animals (and tags) and more people applying.  Either could change, but that is simply hoping on a good luck streak - which pretty much sums up the plan the department has in place.

[slowhand]

So it's going to be just like fishing for Salmon.
The good old days scenario?
Well lets get those Deer and Elk hatcheries build as soon as possible. I have three boys that have yet to harvest an animal.