"points" is there really a point

[Shawn Ryan]

There seems to be a general lack of awareness of how probability works in this thread.

[vandeman17]

There seems to be a general lack of awareness of how probability works in this thread.

I think the majority understand how the odds go but at least for me, I know that the difference between 5 points and 20 points for the "quality" tags is negligible in the grand scheme of things. When both have below 1% odds, the difference in those point totals don't really mean much to me.   

[Skillet]

There seems to be a general lack of awareness of how probability works in this thread.

I think the majority understand how the odds go but at least for me, I know that the difference between 5 points and 20 points for the "quality" tags is negligible in the grand scheme of things. When both have below 1% odds, the difference in those point totals don't really mean much to me.   

 

Nobody is saying if you have more points than another applicant that your odds to draw vs that applicant are lower.  More points = better odds than fewer points in any draw. 

The main issue is the actual odds of pulling a permit.  As Vandeman says, having 20 years in and still looking at a less then 1% chance to draw isn't very uplifting.

The general lack of awareness on here is that the odds are going down every year for higher point total holders.  If you hold 10+ points and didn't draw in 2018, all things being equal, your odds to pull that quality bull permit in 2019 are actually lower.  Even with another point squared.  It's counterintuitive, but it's true.  And when permits are reduced, almost everybody's odds go down significantly from the previous year.

Somebody earlier nailed it when they said don't ghost point, this year is the best your odds are going to be.

[dscubame]

Yep.  The high point holder likely to draw hayday is past.  My going forward plan is continue to put in until drawn and if drawn will not put in any more.  If I never draw o.k. sucks but still will enjoy the hope for that rare chance. 

Draw and Done is my motto in WA.

[The scout]

  if the opportunity was the same when I started applying, I would have never started.

[7mmfan]

There seems to be a general lack of awareness of how probability works in this thread.

Thanks Ted I understand exactly how it works. I know 23 chances is better than 5, pretty easy math there. I also understand that the number of points had nothing to do with drawings tags in this state. It's just more chances in the barrel.

[Mr Mykiss]

I’m pretty sure that I can hit an elk with 28 shots...but I’m also pretty sure that 10 guys with 10 shots each will hit it before me.

[dscubame]

There seems to be a general lack of awareness of how probability works in this thread.

Thanks Ted I understand exactly how it works. I know 23 chances is better than 5, pretty easy math there. I also understand that the number of points had nothing to do with drawings tags in this state. It's just more chances in the barrel.

Not true.  Using your 23 vs 5 chances, for example it use to be 5 chances out of 25 giving you 20 percent chance to draw but now it is 23 out of a 1,000 giving you a 2 percent chance to draw.  That is what is being referred to that you truely do not understand.  Cheers.

[opdinkslayer]

Reading all this makes me want to cry as I hit the checkout button & donate another $200 to the state!   But hey somebody has to win right & im in too deep to quit now!

[Mr Mykiss]

Not true.  Using your 23 vs 5 chances, for example it use to be 5 chances out of 25 giving you 20 percent chance to draw but now it is 23 out of a 1,000 giving you a 2 percent chance to draw.  That is what is being referred to that you truely do not understand.  Cheers.

What in the world?? I don’t follow one bit...are you trying to talk points? Tag numbers? Applicants?

[Mr Mykiss]

I’m pretty sure that I can hit an elk with 28 shots...but I’m also pretty sure that 10 guys with 10 shots each will hit it before me.

Since you’re gonna ask...
10 guys with 10 points is 1000 names in the hat, one guy with 28 points is 784 names in the hat.

[Tbar]

Can we get Cryder to chime in? I'm getting confused.

[trophyhunt]

Can we get Cryder to chime in? I'm getting confused.

now that’s funny !!   

[Bob33]

Can we get Cryder to chime in? I'm getting confused.

 

[beauhunter]

The sad truth is the most hunters now will not draw these coveted tags, but all you can do is hope for the best and expect the worst. I wish everyone the best in the draw and am thankful for just being able to hunt still