Cougar populations in Washington?

[Kain]

http://www.biggamehunt.net/sections/Mountain_Lion/Big_Cats_Are_Back_11040212.html

"The Colorado Division of Wildlife won't give an estimate of the cougar population within it's borders but a conservative estimate by several knowledgeable individuals puts the population at approximately three thousand. Hornocker's mountain lion/cougar study in Idaho showed the average cougar killed one mule deer per week or fifty deer per year. That means that Colorado's cat population is taking 150,000 mule deer from a total estimated population of 300,000 deer. Hunters presently harvest between 40,000-50,000 per year. In 1963 Colorado's deer harvest was 147,000 mule deer so the cougar has replaced the hunter as the number one predator on the Colorado mule deer population."

Holy crap!  Anyone know what the estimated numbers are for Washington?

[bowhunterforever]

  Thats alot of dead deer. Wonder what the numbers are here?

[saylean]

It doesnt seem hard to find tracks thats for sure. Heres an elk I found last year hunting...

[Cougeyes]

You gotta remember that it's just not deer though, they kill elk and other species as well so the effects on one given species may not be as great as we think. Or as that study may elude to.

[OneHorn]

i can tell you theres way to many and its dumb that we cant hunt them with dogs. i wonder how many people have to be killed this year for them to allow us to hunt them with dogs again.

[boneaddict]

Not just being loud and obnoxiuos but I used to find (inthe last three years or so , a ton of cougar sign.  It was kinda scary really.  This spring, almost none.  Lots of wolf stuff though.  I have found more wolf than cat.  I serious wonder if there is a correlation.  

[OneHorn]

this turkey season i have seen at least 5 different sets of cats track that were all within a mile of eachother. I think it was 2 years ago that fishunt247 and my dad had 2 cougars stalk them while they were callin in a couple toms.

[Kain]

http://wdfw.wa.gov/wlm/living/cougars.htm

"Cougars occur throughout Washington where suitable cover and prey are found. The cougar population for the year 2002 was estimated to be 2,400 to 3,500 animals. Statewide, the cougar population is likely declining. The Department of Fish and Wildlife has nine management zones around the state designated for “maintain” or “decline,” and adjusts harvest levels accordingly."

Thats 120,000-175,000 deer or elk per year.

Hunters, poachers, wolves, bobcats, coyotes, bears, cougars, cars, and nature.  If you were not a predator hunter before you might want to give it a try.  Deer and elk hunting will be much better if we thin them out a little.

[saylean]

2002 the high est. for cougs was 3500...I bet there is more nowadays, so lets say 4000 cougs..

times 52 weeks a year (1 deer or elk per week)

208,000 animals...

[Kain]

Not just being loud and obnoxiuos but I used to find (inthe last three years or so , a ton of cougar sign.  It was kinda scary really.  This spring, almost none.  Lots of wolf stuff though.  I have found more wolf than cat.  I serious wonder if there is a correlation.  

I seems unlikely they would kill the cougars but just drive them out of the area.  Your area having less might account for others seeing more.  Even if the population is declining the new changes in the regulations might turn that around within a year.  Interesting.

[boneaddict]

Kind of what I was figuring.   I doubted they actually get many, especially in these areas as they are highly timbered.  Did figure they'd push them out, and if the deer are gone, no reason for the cats to be there as well.

[elksnout]

One of my employees saw a huge cat just north of Chinook, Wa while on a clam digging trip last weekend. He said it was about 50 yards off of the pavement in a cow pasture.

[Armadillo]

Saw one today while out scouting. Walked up on it while it was laying down in the bottom of a swampy gully with a creek just off the skid road. I'll admit that I dont know anything about cougar behavior but would there be a reason for the thing to be laying down near a noisy creek? maybe it was just trying to stay outta sight while I passed on the road? I saw the form plain as day from about 50 yards thru the thick brush but I had to glass it for a few minutes before I saw any movement that told it was indeed an animal. It just looked like a yellowish orangy blob that was out of place. At this point I still couldnt ID it for sure, either it was a deer or a coug. I saw a tail flick so I kept watching but as I shifted my weight to my right foot it caused a rock to grate really loudly and thru my glass I saw the face of the cat whip up from behind a bush but it didnt look right at me it was looking towards my right then it burst forth and ran in that direction. Very cool experience, what a rush!. I have been seeing quite a few kitty tracks lately

[littlebuf]

its kinda funny you said " the cougar has replaced the hunter as the top predator" when it was probably the other way around if you think about it, the cougars were the top predator well before we showed up  that being said if i see a cat its going down. i like being on top 

[Kain]

its kinda funny you said " the cougar has replaced the hunter as the top predator" when it was probably the other way around if you think about it, the cougars were the top predator well before we showed up  that being said if i see a cat its going down. i like being on top 

I didnt say that, that was a quote from the article I posted a link to.

 But I think the point was that the lack of management allowed the balance to get out of control.  These game departments seem to be constantly playing catch up to their decisions.  Just look at the new regs here in this state.  They say the cougar population is declining due to an over harvest on females.  So they make a drastic change to whole program.  Now I think almost everyone here can tell you right away that this will have a dramatic effect on the number of cougars harvested.  So what happens in two years when the population is not only growing it goes back up to out of control levels. 

"Females average more offspring per litter in their first years of reproduction, and then decrease in future litters (Logan et al. 1996)."- http://www.uwsp.edu/wildlife/carnivore/Mountain%20Lion%20Natural%20History_files/Mountain%20Lion%20Natural%20History_copy(1).htm

By this study a "growing" population can grow faster than a stable population. (if that makes sense)  They could have reduced the bag limit to 1 cougar and removed August from the season.  That would have reduced the number of animals harvested in a controlled manor.  But in three years they will have more damage permits given out to try and get the problem under control when they could have let the general population of hunters have hunting opportunities the whole time and still kept the cougar populations stable.

[littlebuf]

i agree with you 100% kain, that line just struck me as a little "under thought" if you will, but you didnt write it. maybe in three years we'll get some good cat hunting opportunity with all the little kitty's that the state is saving, but i doubt it   

[Slider]

Not just being loud and obnoxiuos but I used to find (inthe last three years or so , a ton of cougar sign.  It was kinda scary really.  This spring, almost none.  Lots of wolf stuff though.  I have found more wolf than cat.  I serious wonder if there is a correlation.  

Bone don't dogs chase cats?...............................

[DOUBLELUNG]

Kind of what I was figuring.   I doubted they actually get many, especially in these areas as they are highly timbered.  Did figure they'd push them out, and if the deer are gone, no reason for the cats to be there as well.

There is a great long-term study in northcentral MT, where they monitored the effects of natural recolonization by wolves on black bears, grizzly bears and mountain lions.  Essentially no effect on black bear, cougars crashed due to both direct predation, but much more so wolf appropriation of their kills.  Grizzlies appropriated the wolf kills, and thrived.

In northwest Wyoming, the productivity of grizzly bears has nearly doubled since 1995, when wolves were artificially introduced.  Kill apropriation seems to be the driver - meat grows more cubs than vegetation.

One thing to keep in mind, is big game population estimates by states are fall-winter populations.  They are typically about twice as high right after fawn/calf drop in the spring.  A LOT of predation losses occur between May and November/December, majority young of the year.  In a stable, productive herd, about one fawn in four survives to one year old; for elk, about one calf in five.  Higher survival, and the herd grows; less, and it declines.  In a marginal, low productivity herd (e.g., Colockum elk), it takes higher survival and less mortality to be stable or grow. 

[boneaddict]

Great info as always, and I could totally see that.

[Kain]

Great, one predator we can hunt being replaced by two that we cant.  F'n grizzlies?  Would rather take my chances with a cat.   

[BENCHLEG]

like i have said in the past. kill all cougars on first site. KILLA CAT SAVE A DEER OR ELK. 

[huntnphool]

I really want a cougar or two, I think I'm going to kidnap a buddies dogs for a couple days

[Kain]

Newest cougar population estimates. 

A rough estimate from
population reconstruction indicated that the minimum
number of cougars in Washington might be around
900 animals. An extrapolation across the state with
the highest cougar density reported in the literature
suggested the maximum number of cougars in
Washington might be around 4,100 animals. Since
2003, cougar population size has been assessed in three project areas in Washington. Currently,
the best available estimate of statewide abundance is from an extrapolation from those projects,
corresponding to about 1,900 to 2,100 animals (excluding kittens).

  http://wdfw.wa.gov/wlm/game/management/2009-2015/final_game_management_plan_2009-2015.pdf  pg 85

They also use a different number of kills per year.

Cougars are effective and efficient predators and average about one deer
kill (or deer equivalent) every 10 days (Ackerman et al. 1986). 

pg 91

That would be 69350-76650 dead deer or elk.  That is almost 100,000 less deer or elk killed than the other study and cougar population suggest.     Good news for the deer and elk and us hunters.  I wish the numbers could be more reliable but Im sure WDFW wishes the same.

[Pathfinder101]

It is crazy here in the Blues.  We don't have the wolf problem (yet), so cats are the main predator.  50 deer a year per adult cat is assuming they are adult deer too.  Take calves and fawns into the equation, and you get more.  That's why you see herds of deer and elk here with only a few fawns/calves by August....

[WAcoyotehunter]

I pulled a lion pursuit tag this winter and spent a LOT of time in the woods looking for cats and running fresh tracks.  What I found was sort of a suprise.  On every single trip out we found lion tracks.  Often they were old or the dogs were not able to sort them out.  All year we only cut two adult toms.  We treed one, around 130 lbs, the other track was too old to run. 
We checked the likely spots, deer and elk yards generally fairly low, and worked pretty hard to find tracks.  The problem was that we only found two adult tom tracks. 
I think there are still quite a few lions around, but not near what I thought before spending much of the winter in the woods.  We found far more coyote kills than lion kills... (likely 2:1) and never cut a single wolf track. 
We hunted Pend Orielle County the whole time.

Another interesting thing- we only cut three bobcat tracks all year... ?  Obviuosly we can't chase them, but why so few??  Trapping?

[farmin4u_98948]

I pulled a lion pursuit tag this winter and spent a LOT of time in the woods looking for cats and running fresh tracks.  What I found was sort of a suprise.  On every single trip out we found lion tracks.  Often they were old or the dogs were not able to sort them out.  All year we only cut two adult toms.  We treed one, around 130 lbs, the other track was too old to run. 
We checked the likely spots, deer and elk yards generally fairly low, and worked pretty hard to find tracks.  The problem was that we only found two adult tom tracks. 
I think there are still quite a few lions around, but not near what I thought before spending much of the winter in the woods.  We found far more coyote kills than lion kills... (likely 2:1) and never cut a single wolf track. 
We hunted Pend Orielle County the whole time.

Another interesting thing- we only cut three bobcat tracks all year... ?  Obviuosly we can't chase them, but why so few??  Trapping?

Good questions that will never be answered.... Thanks for the post........

[BLUEBULLS]

I hate to say it but I think cat #'s are declining in the blues. I'm not seeing many kills and the amount of tracks I see while shed hunting has dropped drastically. several years ago, the elk calf #'s by late summer were really bad, now i'm starting to see pretty good survival. I know the fires have taken a pretty good toll on them, i found dead cats and know of several others. Who knows if it's a cycle thing or the fires or what but I just haven't seen them lately although they are becoming pretty common down here near tri-cities.

[Kain]

The estimated population went from 2500-3500 in 2002 to a current estimate of 1900-2100 (excluding kittens).  It looks like the average harvest per year since 2002 is around 200 cats.  Thats about 10% +/-.  There has got to be more kittens born than 10%?   The WDFW admits that the numbers are hard to estimate and might not be accurate but if the population is declining that fast it is not from over harvesting by (legal) hunters. IMO.   If the population is stable or is declining the new regs should definitely turn that around within a very short time.  With the number of kittens that are not being counted, and the number of adult females and a lower harvest we should see an increase in population within two years.  That increase should be exponential after that.  Hopefully WDFW is ready to react to the increased population before it get too high and reduces some of the restrictions on hunters.


I am not a biologist and my math-fu is weak so if Im wrong somewhere let me know. 

Reproduction
Female cougars sexually mature at about 2.5 years of age; males at 3 to 4 years. Cougars are solitary and only pair up for three to four weeks during the mating season, which normally occurs during winter months. Gestation lasts about 90-95 days. Females usually give birth in late winter or early spring to two or three cubs, but litters can be up to six cubs. Males take no part in the rearing of cubs, and have been known to kill unattended cubs.

http://www.zoo.org/factsheets/cougar/cougar.html

According to my math a female cougar can have a litter of kittens every other year.  If we assume that the current population numbers are good and there is a 50/50 male to female ratio.  That would be 950-1050 females.  Half (425-525) would have a litter this year.  Using the information above I will use a conservative estimate of two kittens per female.

That should be 950-1050 new kittens?  Maybe some of the females are under 2.5, wont be bred or the kittens die. So we could cut the number in half again and still be at 450-525 new kittens this year.  If you have around 200 cats harvested and maybe another 10% die to natural and other causes you would still have a growing/stable population with last years regulations and conservative math?

[WAcoyotehunter]

I would increase your 10% mort rate quite a ways.  Also- figure that when hunters take a female cat, it's likely they're killing the young as well...

[Kain]

I would increase your 10% mort rate quite a ways.  Also- figure that when hunters take a female cat, it's likely they're killing the young as well...

I was already counting a bunch of dead kittens by cutting the new kitten number in half.  If you have a good mort rate for kittens I could change the numbers.  I thought 50% was being safe for kitten and 10% (20% if you count hunting) for adults.  What do you think the mort rate should be?  You also have to remember these number do not include current kitten numbers according to the WDFW and a conservative number of kittens per litter.

[gottatree]

I took part in a lion study for the state of Oregon a few years back. The southern Oregon biologists that we worked with would openly admit cougar studies are flawed. There is very little known about them, I have treeed two mature tom's and a female of the same kill. Hmm, according to the bugs (biologists) that would never happen. I have spent the majority of my life running these animals. I have a great respect for these animals as I have seen more than most people will in ten lifetimes.
  The state's normaly under estimate the populations by approx. 20-30 percent, according to the Oregon biologists. I spend a lot of time in the woods, hunting and keeping my dogs in shape. I spend on average 10-12 days a month in Oregon running my dogs. When the snow fly's we see a lot of lion tracks and we would have no problem running two a day. The population is not declining, we just need some current studies. When the bounty was still on them the hound hunter's would go weeks before they cut a track to run. The population has been on the increse since then.

[Houndhunter]

i need to move outa state, lion has to be my favortie thing to run

[Kain]

Age Specific morlality Rates

Adults 10%
Kittens-26%
Adults 12%
Overall 32%
Kittens 28%
Overall 30%
Overall 26-28%
Overall-12%

https://research.wsulibs.wsu.edu:8443/dspace/bitstream/2376/1033/1/v76%20p15%20Keister%20Jr.%20and%20Van%20Dyke.PDF

This particular study says the highest overall mortality rate is 32%  I think I have that covered in my math with 20% for adults and the rest in kittens.  The average litter size is 2.4  I will read the rest of the study and redo the math.

[Kain]

Ok I read the study but it is for you smarter types to really understand. I did pull out the basic numbers though.
 
Estimated population 1900-2100 (kittens excluded)
Female/Male ratio 50/50. Could be higher males in Washington do to more females being harvested. But with only ~200 cats being harvested and an estimate of 60% of those being female the difference would only be ~20 less females than males from the year before. 
http://wdfw.wa.gov/wlm/game/management/2009-2015/final_game_management_plan_2009-2015.pdf Page 85

So out of 950-1050 females 75% would breeding age. 
712.5-787.5 females with an annual pregnancy rate of 63%.  448.9-496.1 females will have an average of 2.4 kittens.
That is 1077-1191 new kittens.
Adjusted for mortality of 31% (this includes the kittens dieing due to the mother dieing) would be 743-822 new kittens in a year.

[blindpig]

http://wdfw.wa.gov/wlm/living/cougars.htm

"Thats 120,000-175,000 deer or elk per year.


Kill them on sight, I say.

[Deer and elk hunting will be much better if we thin them out a little.

[Houndhunter]

i think we need to thin out all are predators, not just lions. i would just like a chance at some animals that get time to grow and i dont see that happening as much anymore