Cougar populations in Washington?

[littlebuf]

i agree with you 100% kain, that line just struck me as a little "under thought" if you will, but you didnt write it. maybe in three years we'll get some good cat hunting opportunity with all the little kitty's that the state is saving, but i doubt it   

[Slider]

Not just being loud and obnoxiuos but I used to find (inthe last three years or so , a ton of cougar sign.  It was kinda scary really.  This spring, almost none.  Lots of wolf stuff though.  I have found more wolf than cat.  I serious wonder if there is a correlation.  

Bone don't dogs chase cats?...............................

[DOUBLELUNG]

Kind of what I was figuring.   I doubted they actually get many, especially in these areas as they are highly timbered.  Did figure they'd push them out, and if the deer are gone, no reason for the cats to be there as well.

There is a great long-term study in northcentral MT, where they monitored the effects of natural recolonization by wolves on black bears, grizzly bears and mountain lions.  Essentially no effect on black bear, cougars crashed due to both direct predation, but much more so wolf appropriation of their kills.  Grizzlies appropriated the wolf kills, and thrived.

In northwest Wyoming, the productivity of grizzly bears has nearly doubled since 1995, when wolves were artificially introduced.  Kill apropriation seems to be the driver - meat grows more cubs than vegetation.

One thing to keep in mind, is big game population estimates by states are fall-winter populations.  They are typically about twice as high right after fawn/calf drop in the spring.  A LOT of predation losses occur between May and November/December, majority young of the year.  In a stable, productive herd, about one fawn in four survives to one year old; for elk, about one calf in five.  Higher survival, and the herd grows; less, and it declines.  In a marginal, low productivity herd (e.g., Colockum elk), it takes higher survival and less mortality to be stable or grow. 

[boneaddict]

Great info as always, and I could totally see that.

[Kain]

Great, one predator we can hunt being replaced by two that we cant.  F'n grizzlies?  Would rather take my chances with a cat.   

[BENCHLEG]

like i have said in the past. kill all cougars on first site. KILLA CAT SAVE A DEER OR ELK. 

[huntnphool]

I really want a cougar or two, I think I'm going to kidnap a buddies dogs for a couple days

[Kain]

Newest cougar population estimates. 

A rough estimate from
population reconstruction indicated that the minimum
number of cougars in Washington might be around
900 animals. An extrapolation across the state with
the highest cougar density reported in the literature
suggested the maximum number of cougars in
Washington might be around 4,100 animals. Since
2003, cougar population size has been assessed in three project areas in Washington. Currently,
the best available estimate of statewide abundance is from an extrapolation from those projects,
corresponding to about 1,900 to 2,100 animals (excluding kittens).

  http://wdfw.wa.gov/wlm/game/management/2009-2015/final_game_management_plan_2009-2015.pdf  pg 85

They also use a different number of kills per year.

Cougars are effective and efficient predators and average about one deer
kill (or deer equivalent) every 10 days (Ackerman et al. 1986). 

pg 91

That would be 69350-76650 dead deer or elk.  That is almost 100,000 less deer or elk killed than the other study and cougar population suggest.     Good news for the deer and elk and us hunters.  I wish the numbers could be more reliable but Im sure WDFW wishes the same.

[Pathfinder101]

It is crazy here in the Blues.  We don't have the wolf problem (yet), so cats are the main predator.  50 deer a year per adult cat is assuming they are adult deer too.  Take calves and fawns into the equation, and you get more.  That's why you see herds of deer and elk here with only a few fawns/calves by August....

[WAcoyotehunter]

I pulled a lion pursuit tag this winter and spent a LOT of time in the woods looking for cats and running fresh tracks.  What I found was sort of a suprise.  On every single trip out we found lion tracks.  Often they were old or the dogs were not able to sort them out.  All year we only cut two adult toms.  We treed one, around 130 lbs, the other track was too old to run. 
We checked the likely spots, deer and elk yards generally fairly low, and worked pretty hard to find tracks.  The problem was that we only found two adult tom tracks. 
I think there are still quite a few lions around, but not near what I thought before spending much of the winter in the woods.  We found far more coyote kills than lion kills... (likely 2:1) and never cut a single wolf track. 
We hunted Pend Orielle County the whole time.

Another interesting thing- we only cut three bobcat tracks all year... ?  Obviuosly we can't chase them, but why so few??  Trapping?

[farmin4u_98948]

I pulled a lion pursuit tag this winter and spent a LOT of time in the woods looking for cats and running fresh tracks.  What I found was sort of a suprise.  On every single trip out we found lion tracks.  Often they were old or the dogs were not able to sort them out.  All year we only cut two adult toms.  We treed one, around 130 lbs, the other track was too old to run. 
We checked the likely spots, deer and elk yards generally fairly low, and worked pretty hard to find tracks.  The problem was that we only found two adult tom tracks. 
I think there are still quite a few lions around, but not near what I thought before spending much of the winter in the woods.  We found far more coyote kills than lion kills... (likely 2:1) and never cut a single wolf track. 
We hunted Pend Orielle County the whole time.

Another interesting thing- we only cut three bobcat tracks all year... ?  Obviuosly we can't chase them, but why so few??  Trapping?

Good questions that will never be answered.... Thanks for the post........

[BLUEBULLS]

I hate to say it but I think cat #'s are declining in the blues. I'm not seeing many kills and the amount of tracks I see while shed hunting has dropped drastically. several years ago, the elk calf #'s by late summer were really bad, now i'm starting to see pretty good survival. I know the fires have taken a pretty good toll on them, i found dead cats and know of several others. Who knows if it's a cycle thing or the fires or what but I just haven't seen them lately although they are becoming pretty common down here near tri-cities.

[Kain]

The estimated population went from 2500-3500 in 2002 to a current estimate of 1900-2100 (excluding kittens).  It looks like the average harvest per year since 2002 is around 200 cats.  Thats about 10% +/-.  There has got to be more kittens born than 10%?   The WDFW admits that the numbers are hard to estimate and might not be accurate but if the population is declining that fast it is not from over harvesting by (legal) hunters. IMO.   If the population is stable or is declining the new regs should definitely turn that around within a very short time.  With the number of kittens that are not being counted, and the number of adult females and a lower harvest we should see an increase in population within two years.  That increase should be exponential after that.  Hopefully WDFW is ready to react to the increased population before it get too high and reduces some of the restrictions on hunters.


I am not a biologist and my math-fu is weak so if Im wrong somewhere let me know. 

Reproduction
Female cougars sexually mature at about 2.5 years of age; males at 3 to 4 years. Cougars are solitary and only pair up for three to four weeks during the mating season, which normally occurs during winter months. Gestation lasts about 90-95 days. Females usually give birth in late winter or early spring to two or three cubs, but litters can be up to six cubs. Males take no part in the rearing of cubs, and have been known to kill unattended cubs.

http://www.zoo.org/factsheets/cougar/cougar.html

According to my math a female cougar can have a litter of kittens every other year.  If we assume that the current population numbers are good and there is a 50/50 male to female ratio.  That would be 950-1050 females.  Half (425-525) would have a litter this year.  Using the information above I will use a conservative estimate of two kittens per female.

That should be 950-1050 new kittens?  Maybe some of the females are under 2.5, wont be bred or the kittens die. So we could cut the number in half again and still be at 450-525 new kittens this year.  If you have around 200 cats harvested and maybe another 10% die to natural and other causes you would still have a growing/stable population with last years regulations and conservative math?

[WAcoyotehunter]

I would increase your 10% mort rate quite a ways.  Also- figure that when hunters take a female cat, it's likely they're killing the young as well...

[Kain]

I would increase your 10% mort rate quite a ways.  Also- figure that when hunters take a female cat, it's likely they're killing the young as well...

I was already counting a bunch of dead kittens by cutting the new kitten number in half.  If you have a good mort rate for kittens I could change the numbers.  I thought 50% was being safe for kitten and 10% (20% if you count hunting) for adults.  What do you think the mort rate should be?  You also have to remember these number do not include current kitten numbers according to the WDFW and a conservative number of kittens per litter.