Colockum 2057 or 2058?

[HUNT JR]

So true!!  My odds with 28 points for the clock archery tag is around 15%, sure it’s better than most, but 15% after 28 years!  Points are waaaaaaay over rated! The young people on here should not live (hunt) on the point system, just go hunt and use the point system as a bonus!

Exactly why I hunt and apply in just about every other western state. WA is just a backup plan if lightning strikes in the draws.

[Mtnwalker]

So true!!  My odds with 28 points for the clock archery tag is around 15%, sure it’s better than most, but 15% after 28 years!  Points are waaaaaaay over rated! The young people on here should not live (hunt) on the point system, just go hunt and use the point system as a bonus!

I sure hope for everybody's sake you draw this year so we don't have to hear about 29... 

[trophyhunt]

So true!!  My odds with 28 points for the clock archery tag is around 15%, sure it’s better than most, but 15% after 28 years!  Points are waaaaaaay over rated! The young people on here should not live (hunt) on the point system, just go hunt and use the point system as a bonus!

I sure hope for everybody's sake you draw this year so we don't have to hear about 29... 

hey now, I’m much better than I was a few years ago when I couldn’t believe I didn’t draw with 13-15 points!! 😁. I hate to say this, but I have 28 points in “bull” and “quality” , so you are stuck with me at least another year!! Lol! 

[Stein]

Good luck!

[bobcat]

So true!!  My odds with 28 points for the clock archery tag is around 15%, sure it’s better than most, but 15% after 28 years!  Points are waaaaaaay over rated! The young people on here should not live (hunt) on the point system, just go hunt and use the point system as a bonus!

Are you sure your odds are 15%? Sounds very optimistic to me.

[boneaddict]

The Title of this whole thread means different to me I suppose.   I figure those are the two years I might get to draw it, That is of course if elk dont succumb to extinction by then

[trophyhunt]

So true!!  My odds with 28 points for the clock archery tag is around 15%, sure it’s better than most, but 15% after 28 years!  Points are waaaaaaay over rated! The young people on here should not live (hunt) on the point system, just go hunt and use the point system as a bonus!

Are you sure your odds are 15%? Sounds very optimistic to me.

I had a gentleman from here who I call "the rain man" , lol, he's a numbers guy and I asked him to run me some numbers.  Now that percentage can go 1-2% either way and it's from last years numbers, number of applicants, number of tags and I think he also looks up the other competition to see their points.  It's not perfect but at least gives me an idea. 

[trophyhunt]

784 names in the hat!  I'd feel more positive about it if they didn't have an infinity of numbers to assign...  I would think if the pool of numbers to pull from was the total number of names in the hat, the odds might be better??  but I'm not a numbers guy. 

[hughjorgan]

784 names in the hat!  I'd feel more positive about it if they didn't have an infinity of numbers to assign...  I would think if the pool of numbers to pull from was the total number of names in the hat, the odds might be better??  but I'm not a numbers guy.

You really only have 1 name in the hat for the draw that’s why the odds stink. But you have 784 more chances of that 1 being a lower number than any one else.

[trophyhunt]

784 names in the hat!  I'd feel more positive about it if they didn't have an infinity of numbers to assign...  I would think if the pool of numbers to pull from was the total number of names in the hat, the odds might be better??  but I'm not a numbers guy.

You really only have 1 name in the hat for the draw that’s why the odds stink. But you have 784 more chances of that 1 being a lower number than any one else.

oh yeah, I’m very familiar with how it works. Just need one low number!! 

[Stein]

Someone with GoHunt could double check those numbers, I only bought maps this year.  WA is fairly hard to calculate odds with the way their draw works, you pretty much have to run a couple million simulations and average the results.  The more simulations you do, the more accurate your odds.  Like mentioned, those were the odds last year.  In WA, you often have to adjust for more applicants and fewer tags unfortunately.

[trophyhunt]

Agree, I don’t expect to draw that’s for sure.

[Antlershed]

Agree, I don’t expect to draw that’s for sure.

But you should definitely go eastside archery and give it a shot….(so you’re not applying for the same thing as me  )

[trophyhunt]

Agree, I don’t expect to draw that’s for sure.

But you should definitely go eastside archery and give it a shot….(so you’re not applying for the same thing as me  )

ahh, but my 2nd choice won’t be archery!! 😁

[jstone]

Good luck on your second choice