8 different special apps pools!

[Lowedog]

I would argue that most people are not going to spend another $10 to apply for hunts they could care less about.  Most people I know think it is too much to spend now.  Then you take out most of the youth and seniors who I would guess not buy extra apps (but currently may put a tough draw as 3rd or 4th choice) then odds go up.  Maybe add in some disabled hunters to that.  

[WDFW-SUX]

The average number of points needed to draw any permit is going to jump sharply. Here's why:

The people that just want opportunity and don't have the patience to wait for 10-15 years for that buck or bull tag are now going to be able to apply for the trophy tags and still apply the antler-less tags.  

Now flip it.  

People like me who will wait 20 years for the tag I want and never apply for a cow tags are going to be all over the antlerless draw because we see it as free meat.  

Your also discounting how many people have 10+ points for deer and elk because we have been holding out for a trophy tag and those points will now be active for the first time trying to draw antler-less tags.

The average needed to draw a cow tag will now be 10+ where it was 2-3......

The over all odds that you will be able to draw any tag will decrease the thing that increases is the probability because you have more occurrences of the event (drawings), and that realistically only benefits you if you are going into the new system with a high number of points because the odds for all applicants are going to go down.

10 bucks is not enough money to deter people from applying for all of the options.

[huntnphool]

  Spot on right there. I have lots of points and NEVER had a thought of putting in for an anterless permit. Guess what, I am now!!!

[Lowedog]

I think you are way over estimating the average applicants desire to spend more money and also to apply for tags they don't care about.  

Even with a lot of points those antlerless tags won't be drawn at the same percentage rate as premier hunt tags as there are a lot more of them available.  



I do think it is a bad idea to have points go across the board.  

I do think $10 is enough to deter a lot of people.  Most people complain they spend too much now.  Take someone who has multiple family member to apply for into consideration.  A lot of those people currently are putting quality hunt choices down as one of there choices but if they have to pay for that choice I am thinking a lot won't.  
 

[WDFW-SUX]

I think you are way over estimating the average applicants desire to spend more money and also to apply for tags they don't care about

your talking about an extra 20-40$ per applicant..I think they will find the money. Especially if the state doesn't make them start at 0 points.

[Woodchuck]

without trying to start an argument, i have to disagree with lowe, after all the money that i already spend whats anothe 10 or 20? i am stuck in the middle, but putting in for one late buck tag and then cow tags, now i lose my odds for cow and i will start building for a bull tag, dropping those guys odds. this will suck for everyone. more applications = lower odds period

[huntnphool]

 Lowdog, you think that the average guy, that has 5 or 6 points for example, is now just going to walk away from his points and not apply again? I can see the $10 deterring new people, or people starting back at 0, but I dont see someone with any amount of points just saying "keep my money and years I've waited, I'm done." Some will but most won't. I think a lot of guys will do the same as me, continue to put in until we get the permit we want and then never apply in that section again.

 Keep in mind that my rebuttal was in response to the "increased odds" post.

No way does adding more people to any one group of permits with a set number, increase odds, sorry.

 

[WDFW-SUX]

I bet the average points to draw a Manastash cow tag will be in the 7+ range once the guys that have been applying for bull tags only jump into that pool.

Here is the breakdown for last year without the really high point holders after the tags.

Manastash A (cow tag) 250 tags 2,585 apps  3.86 average points

There is no way that number gets better..its just not possible.


There were 3400 apps for the bull tags in the manastash.  Id bet half of those guys dont apply for any cow tags and that might be low.  Most still hunt that area for spikes if they dont draw there bull tag.  Id bet 90% of those guys will be after a cow tag now so they dont have to chase a spike.

Now we are going to have 5000+ apps for those Manastash cow tags..Same story in most other units.

[huntnphool]

Truedat

[NWBREW]

I think you are way over estimating the average applicants desire to spend more money and also to apply for tags they don't care about

your talking about an extra 20-40$ per applicant..I think they will find the money. Especially if the state doesn't make them start at 0 points.

I agree. I have a good number of points and not alot of money....but what's an extra 10 or 20 bucks if I can put a big fat cow elk in the freezer and still have points for a bull tag.  Well worth the money I would say. I don't think it will deter a whole lot of people. I don't like it but I believe the number of points you will need for a cow tag will go down a little after the people with 10+ points draw out on cow tags. May take a few years though. It's just not going to help my chances at a bull tag. just my  

[boneaddict]

$10 doesn't deter me from anything.  Thats what it costs me to drive to work, to go get my mail, to pick up a loaf of bread.  A Latte costs $5 or more.  A pack of cigs costs what?  Your telling me that a chance to kill a cow elk isn't worth a latte?

[huntnphool]

Your telling me that a chance to kill a cow elk isn't worth a latte?

Yeah Bone but have you seen what they wear around here while making those latte?

[boneaddict]

Yeah, apparantly one of our gals took even that off this last week.    

[d_wilson]

I'm thinking the old drawing system is looking pretty good right now.

[boneaddict]

I'm wondering if this is a strategy to make people like it.