Mule deer permit hunt

[Curly]

So, the guy with 23 points going into the draw would get (23x23) + 1 = 530 ?  It would seem to make more sense if they did square your points after adding the point you get for applying in the current year, like this: (23 + 1) squared = 576.

I don't know which way they do it, I always thought the latter, but doesn't really matter as long as it's the same for everyone........  

[Ridgerunner]

they square after the point for the current year, otherwise guys who are applying would be zero(but they are at one).  Then the next year you have one from your first year, plus the current year =2, squared you have 4 chances and so on. 

year 3 = 9 points
year 4 = 16 and on and on. 

It is slightly different than Nevada's in that way.

[Bigshooter]

No, guys appling for the first time would have one application and 0 points.  Nevada you get your points PLUS that years application.  I thought washington was the same but it doesnt say in the regs. 

[bobcat]

When you buy your application you get your point. So you never have zero points. First year applying would be 1 chance, 2nd year 4 chances, 3rd year 9 chances. 4th year 16 chances, etc.

Curly's first post was right:

NoBark, I think the point gets added first and then it is squared.  So, if you have 2 points from previous years applications, then you will have 3 going into this years draw........thus 3 squared = 9 chances.  That is how I understand it anyway.

[huntnnw]

Getting a hard to draw tag in this state gurantees nothing, some of the deer I have seen shot in the LE tags are not what I call OIL buck... few and far between.. tag just puts you out there in the rut

[Huntnphish]

The Pearrygin had 1854 applications for 15 permits last year for odds of 1 in 124. That means you should expect to draw once in 124 years of applying.

Huh?

[bobcat]

Huntnphish,  what part of that don't you understand?

[Alan K]

Here are your odds in 2009 with the various amounts of points.  Obviously now that the categories have been broken down, only two choices allowed in the quality category etc. things have changed. 

I really wish the WDFW would publish information like they did in 2009 so that everyone can calculate their true odds. By the way, I used the following link to get the information needed for the calculation:

http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/species_summary.html

[Huntnphish]

Huntnphish,  what part of that don't you understand?

How do 1-124 odds equate to 1 in 124 years? What kind of algorithm are you using to come up with that?

[Alan K]

That was just a way of oversimplifying it, and with the points squaring it wasn't entirely accurate.

What are the odds of flipping a coin and having it land heads up? One in two. So you SHOULD get 1 heads up every 2 flips.  Obviously it doesn't always happen that way because of the luck of the draw (or flip in this case) though.

He was just applying the same logic.  In one year your odds of drawing by the simple permits/applications calculation you come up with 1/124 chance.  By that logic you SHOULD draw once every 124 years. Just like the coin flipping example.

The whole 1/124 thing is completely off though with our system.  With a purely random draw it would be accurate.

[bobcat]

Huntnphish,  what part of that don't you understand?

How do 1-124 odds equate to 1 in 124 years? What kind of algorithm are you using to come up with that?

I don't even know what an algorithm is. It's not that complicated. 1 in 124 means 1 out of every 124 applicants will be drawm. Or, if everything stays the same (same number of applicants and same number of permits) then each person could expect to be drawn 1 time in 124 years of applying for that permit.

[bobcat]

I really wish the WDFW would publish information like they did in 2009 so that everyone can calculate their true odds. By the way, I used the following link to get the information needed for the calculation:

http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/species_summary.html

I think that information will be available as soon as they get the 2010 harvest report posted.

[grundy53]

That was just a way of oversimplifying it, and with the points squaring it wasn't entirely accurate.

What are the odds of flipping a coin and having it land heads up? One in two. So you SHOULD get 1 heads up every 2 flips.  Obviously it doesn't always happen that way because of the luck of the draw (or flip in this case) though.

He was just applying the same logic.  In one year your odds of drawing by the simple permits/applications calculation you come up with 1/124 chance.  By that logic you SHOULD draw once every 124 years. Just like the coin flipping example.

The whole 1/124 thing is completely off though with our system.  With a purely random draw it would be accurate.

 

[jackelope]

Huntnphish,  what part of that don't you understand?

How do 1-124 odds equate to 1 in 124 years? What kind of algorithm are you using to come up with that?

I don't even know what an algorithm is. It's not that complicated. 1 in 124 means 1 out of every 124 applicants will be drawm. Or, if everything stays the same (same number of applicants and same number of permits) then each person could expect to be drawn 1 time in 124 years of applying for that permit.

I've never been able to figure out how to calculate odds in a weighted point system like we have. You can't calculate 1:1 because it's not that way. I don't personally think there's any truly accurate way to calculate odds. You can do  it based on averages, like average the number of points someone has when they apply but we don't have access to that info. Just my opinion...I just have never been able to figure out how people come up with odds.

[Bigshooter]

I can tell you what your odds are for a late rifle mule deer tag: Poor at best and if your lucky you'll draw once in your lifetime.