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The person with 1 point gets 1 random number. The person with 10 points gets 100 random numbers. Who is more likely to have the lowest number?

Quote from: bobcat on May 15, 2019, 01:16:18 PMThe person with 1 point gets 1 random number. The person with 10 points gets 100 random numbers. Who is more likely to have the lowest number?For the single year that only two people apply for the one available tag, one guy with one point and one with 10 points, clearly the guy with 10 points has better odds.But that never happens, nor will it. A more appropriate analogy-The guy with 10 points this year goes in a hat against the 9 guys with 4 points this year.Last year, he had 9 points (representing 81 chances) against 10 guys with their total of 3 points (representing 90 chances). That gave him a 81 in 171 chance of getting the lowest number assigned, or 47.36% odds. But, one of the 3 point guys drew his tag, so now there's a single 10 point guy and only nine 4 point guys for this year. Slam dunk, right? Nope.This year he has 10 points for 100 chances vs. the other 9 guys' 4 points for 144 cumulative chances. That gives him a 100 in 244 chance of getting the lowest number, or 40.98% odds.He's losing ground, and that's with nobody else getting into the draws. My example is a bit extreme, the actual reduction in year-over-year odds are very small, but make no mistake - odds to draw for the higher point holders go down every year.

Quote from: Skillet on May 15, 2019, 01:43:32 PMQuote from: bobcat on May 15, 2019, 01:16:18 PMThe person with 1 point gets 1 random number. The person with 10 points gets 100 random numbers. Who is more likely to have the lowest number?For the single year that only two people apply for the one available tag, one guy with one point and one with 10 points, clearly the guy with 10 points has better odds.But that never happens, nor will it. A more appropriate analogy-The guy with 10 points this year goes in a hat against the 9 guys with 4 points this year.Last year, he had 9 points (representing 81 chances) against 10 guys with their total of 3 points (representing 90 chances). That gave him a 81 in 171 chance of getting the lowest number assigned, or 47.36% odds. But, one of the 3 point guys drew his tag, so now there's a single 10 point guy and only nine 4 point guys for this year. Slam dunk, right? Nope.This year he has 10 points for 100 chances vs. the other 9 guys' 4 points for 144 cumulative chances. That gives him a 100 in 244 chance of getting the lowest number, or 40.98% odds.He's losing ground, and that's with nobody else getting into the draws. My example is a bit extreme, the actual reduction in year-over-year odds are very small, but make no mistake - odds to draw for the higher point holders go down every year.Bobcat's point is that the applicant with ten points will have better odds than the applicant with one point. That will be true regardless of what his own odds do year-to-year.

Quote from: vandeman17 on May 15, 2019, 02:23:05 PMAll I know is that unless the format changes, if/when I draw something, it will be the last application for me in that category. I am sitting on 14 quality deer points and would be absolutely shocked if I drew this year, or in the next 5-10. Sure, but that's like me complaining about my taxes going way up this year, and somebody else simply saying "I paid $5000 in taxes" without saying what they paid last year. There's no context, it's just a single data point.There's two points that keep coming up in this topic that people try to make more important than the other. Point #1 - The guy with higher points has better odds than the guy with lower points in any given draw. Obvious. 2 is always more than 1.Point #2 - The "accumulation" of points is not increasing year-over-year odds for the higher point holders. Counter-intuitive, and definitely off-message for the WDFW fee generating machine. Using point #1 to argue against point #2 doesn't make sense.

All I know is that unless the format changes, if/when I draw something, it will be the last application for me in that category. I am sitting on 14 quality deer points and would be absolutely shocked if I drew this year, or in the next 5-10.

I'd be curious to see the overall age demographics of current point builders/holders.For big game hunters in general, there's a huge population of boomers and older, decreasing sharply with the millennial generation. I talked with an older guy yesterday who is holding 19 mountain goat points but decided he's no longer applying - feels like he couldn't handle the mountain this year.What will the application game look like 30 years from now when the youngest babyboomers are in their 90's?I'd be surprised if there's not a dramatic decrease in applicants as older hunters age out of applying for hunts. This will cause massive management budget shortfalls, so I'm sure tag prices will skyrocket...but I also wouldn't be surprised if some tags are easier to draw in the year 2049 (assuming hunting is still legal).

Not sure I follow but basically what I am saying is that, while I know technically everyone has a chance, I don't see myself starting over and going back in with one point. It has nothing to do with the cost of the applications but more so what I get in return. I have hunted other states and know that many of their OTC hunts are as good, if not better, than our quality tags. For that reason, I have no problem paying the extra money for license and then applying for a special permit there. At least I have good OTC hunts to fall back on instead of here where, if you apply for eastside archery elk and strike out, you are stuck going after cows/spike in a crowded season.

Just applied for Quality Elk(19pts),Bull Elk(19), Any Moose(15), and Goat(6) lastnight and have zero faith i will draw a damn thing but i cant stop trying