Author Topic: Odds of Drawing Multi-Season deer permit (Read 12534 times)

bobcat · « **on:** January 12, 2015, 01:15:23 PM »

This information has been available for quite some time but I just recently decided to look it up. I know last year a lot of us on here wondered how Radsav could have NOT drawn the MS deer, since in the last few years the number of tags available had been higher than the number of applicants for those tags.

Well, it looks like Radsav wasn't the only one who didn't draw. According to the numbers, 3 out of every 100 applicants did not draw.

From the WDFW website:

Bob33 · « **Reply #1 on:** January 12, 2015, 01:23:04 PM »

Quote from: bobcat on January 12, 2015, 01:15:23 PM

This information has been available for quite some time but I just recently decided to look it up. I know last year a lot of us on here wondered how Radsav could have NOT drawn the MS deer, since in the last few years the number of tags available had been higher than the number of applicants for those tags.

Well, it looks like Radsav wasn't the only one who didn't draw. According to the numbers, 3 out of every 100 applicants did not draw.

From the WDFW website:

I read it as only "1 out of 100": 93 of 8500. The others who did not "draw" applied for points only.

JimmyHoffa · « **Reply #2 on:** January 12, 2015, 01:26:30 PM »

I think he used the bolded numbers. I agree with the 1%.

bobcat · « **Reply #3 on:** January 12, 2015, 01:29:09 PM »

That's true. I only looked at the total number of applicants, which was 8,764.

With 8,500 tags being available, 97% of the applicants drew the tag. So, 3 out of 100 did not. But you're right, some of the those did not actually apply for the tag.

Radsav, your luck is even worse than I thought!

Woodchuck · « **Reply #4 on:** January 12, 2015, 01:34:02 PM »

Please let me know what special permits you put in for. That way I can increase my draw odds. Better yet why don't I tell you what hunts I'd like you to put in for.

whacker1 · « **Reply #5 on:** January 12, 2015, 01:38:30 PM »

How many purchased it out of the 8500 drawn?

benhuntin · « **Reply #6 on:** January 12, 2015, 01:41:13 PM »

Is there a link to see this info on other hunts?

If it ain't broke, don't fix it!

Bob33 · « **Reply #7 on:** January 12, 2015, 02:05:06 PM »

Quote from: bobcat on January 12, 2015, 01:29:09 PM

That's true. I only looked at the total number of applicants, which was 8,764.

With 8,500 tags being available, 97% of the applicants drew the tag. So, 3 out of 100 did not. But you're right, some of the those did not actually apply for the tag.

Radsav, your luck is even worse than I thought!

I'm gonna send him some money to buy me lottery tickets. Sure winner!

Bob33 · « **Reply #8 on:** January 12, 2015, 02:05:50 PM »

Quote from: benhuntin on January 12, 2015, 01:41:13 PM

Is there a link to see this info on other hunts?

If it ain't broke, don't fix it!

http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/permits/results/

longwalker · « **Reply #9 on:** January 12, 2015, 02:16:57 PM »

This tag needs to go over the counter. Then the three guys who didn't draw it but wanted it could buy it unlike probably 30% of the guys that drew it and then didn't want to spend the money. Silly draw tag

jackelope · « **Reply #10 on:** January 12, 2015, 02:36:08 PM »

My neighbor says he didn't draw it also. I sort of didn't believe him. I agree with Longwalker. OTC. Lots of folks that draw it don't buy it. The folks like my neighbor and Radsav couldve bought one of they wanted to.

Karl Blanchard · « **Reply #11 on:** January 12, 2015, 02:41:39 PM »

No way it will ever go OTC. Then the state would be out there $50,000 in permit app money.

WAcoueshunter · « **Reply #12 on:** January 12, 2015, 02:42:51 PM »

Quote from: jackelope on January 12, 2015, 02:36:08 PM

My neighbor says he didn't draw it also. I sort of didn't believe him. I agree with Longwalker. OTC. Lots of folks that draw it don't buy it. The folks like my neighbor and Radsav couldve bought one of they wanted to.

Agreed, that would be so much easier and efficient. Make it OTC, and sales cut off when they hit 8500. Or if they are banking that a certain percentage won't purchase, then cut it off when sales hit 6000 or whatever. Charge an extra $6 if they're worried about losing the application fee, it won't make a difference.

Bob33 · « **Reply #13 on:** January 12, 2015, 02:48:34 PM »

Quote from: longwalker on January 12, 2015, 02:16:57 PM

This tag needs to go over the counter. Then the three guys who didn't draw it but wanted it could buy it unlike probably 30% of the guys that drew it and then didn't want to spend the money. Silly draw tag

I suspect that's already been factored in. They don't want to issue more than 5,000, and know they can sell 8500 without exceeding that.

longwalker · « **Reply #14 on:** January 12, 2015, 03:53:16 PM »

That math doesn't quit work. 9000 some odd guys putting in for it and if 5000 are only buying it why would tag sales sky rocket past that if it went over the counter? A guy that doesnt have 5 bucks to put in for it is all the sudden going to have 160 burning a hole in his pocket to buy the tag. Up the price, go over the counter and bingo, status quo. Just like Washington likes

longwalker · « **Reply #15 on:** January 12, 2015, 03:54:57 PM »

For the record I've drawn It and bought it every time I've put n so really it's kinda already over the counter any way

idahohuntr · « **Reply #16 on:** January 12, 2015, 03:57:22 PM »

A few of us on GMAC suggested selling leftovers/unclaimed tags first come/first serve after a cutoff date...that would still allow a draw (and associated $$) and allow folks to buy one who were unlucky. They went with the price reduction option...I would be curious what sales were...did they really only sell 5000?

idahohuntr · « **Reply #17 on:** January 12, 2015, 03:59:54 PM »

Quote from: bobcat on January 12, 2015, 01:15:23 PM

This information has been available for quite some time but I just recently decided to look it up.

Actually, they just put it up right before the new year...1 day after my public disclosure request

Last year it was up in like June or something.

bobcat · « **Reply #18 on:** January 12, 2015, 04:09:16 PM »

Quote from: idahohuntr on January 12, 2015, 03:59:54 PM

Quote from: bobcat on January 12, 2015, 01:15:23 PM
This information has been available for quite some time but I just recently decided to look it up.
Actually, they just put it up right before the new year...1 day after my public disclosure request Last year it was up in like June or something.

Okay, I guess that explains why I hadn't found it until now. It wasn't there! I just assumed it had been posted several months ago.

AntlerHound · « **Reply #19 on:** January 12, 2015, 04:25:23 PM »

I just so happened to be one of those unlucky 264 people that didn't draw.. So hopefully with two points going in this upcoming season I just might get lucky!

AntlerHound · « **Reply #20 on:** January 12, 2015, 04:32:40 PM »

Or 93 unlucky people....according to Bobcats post

RadSav · « **Reply #21 on:** January 12, 2015, 04:50:33 PM »

Quote from: Woodchuck on January 12, 2015, 01:34:02 PM

Please let me know what special permits you put in for. That way I can increase my draw odds. Better yet why don't I tell you what hunts I'd like you to put in for.

RadSav · « **Reply #22 on:** January 12, 2015, 04:55:06 PM »

Quote from: bobcat on January 12, 2015, 01:29:09 PM

Radsav, your luck is even worse than I thought!

I know! Find out your my cousin plus don't get drawn for a multi-season deer all in one year. Then you flaunt your sheep tag and send me pictures of a nut sack. You'd think family would be nicer and more sympathetic to my pain

And the worst part is my wife has been laughing since 1:30 and I just found out why. She thinks this thread is the best thing since CL posted his Hello Kitty picture.

addicted2hunting · « **Reply #23 on:** January 16, 2015, 06:04:48 PM »

I don't know if that makes you an extremely lucky person or a person with horrible luck...

RadSav · « **Reply #24 on:** January 16, 2015, 06:17:09 PM »

I blame it on all those developmental years spent watching HeeHaw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZAAKPJEq1Ew

Boss .300 winmag · « **Reply #25 on:** January 16, 2015, 08:17:48 PM »

I miss her haw.

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Author Topic: Odds of Drawing Multi-Season deer permit (Read 12534 times)

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