Odds of Drawing Multi-Season deer permit

[bobcat]

This information has been available for quite some time but I just recently decided to look it up. I know last year a lot of us on here wondered how Radsav could have NOT drawn the MS deer, since in the last few years the number of tags available had been higher than the number of applicants for those tags.

Well, it looks like Radsav wasn't the only one who didn't draw. According to the numbers, 3 out of every 100 applicants did not draw.

From the WDFW website:

[Bob33]

This information has been available for quite some time but I just recently decided to look it up. I know last year a lot of us on here wondered how Radsav could have NOT drawn the MS deer, since in the last few years the number of tags available had been higher than the number of applicants for those tags.

Well, it looks like Radsav wasn't the only one who didn't draw. According to the numbers, 3 out of every 100 applicants did not draw.

From the WDFW website:

I read it as only "1 out of 100": 93 of 8500. The others who did not "draw" applied for points only.

[JimmyHoffa]

I think he used the bolded numbers.  I agree with the 1%.

[bobcat]

That's true. I only looked at the total number of applicants, which was 8,764.

With 8,500 tags being available, 97% of the applicants drew the tag.  So, 3 out of 100 did not. But you're right, some of the those did not actually apply for the tag.

Radsav, your luck is even worse than I thought!

[Woodchuck]

  Please let me know what special permits you put in for. That way I can increase my draw odds. Better yet why don't I tell you what hunts I'd like you to put in for. 

[whacker1]

How many purchased it out of the 8500 drawn?   

[benhuntin]

Is there a link to see this info on other hunts? 


If it ain't broke, don't fix it!

[Bob33]

That's true. I only looked at the total number of applicants, which was 8,764.

With 8,500 tags being available, 97% of the applicants drew the tag.  So, 3 out of 100 did not. But you're right, some of the those did not actually apply for the tag.

Radsav, your luck is even worse than I thought!

I'm gonna send him some money to buy me lottery tickets. Sure winner!

[Bob33]

Is there a link to see this info on other hunts? 


If it ain't broke, don't fix it!

http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/permits/results/

[longwalker]

This tag needs to go over the counter. Then the three guys who didn't draw it but wanted it could buy it unlike probably 30% of the guys that drew it and then didn't want to spend the money. Silly draw tag

[jackelope]

My neighbor says he didn't draw it also. I sort of didn't believe him. I agree with Longwalker. OTC. Lots of folks that draw it don't buy it. The folks like my neighbor and Radsav couldve bought one of they wanted to.

[Karl Blanchard]

No way it will ever go OTC.  Then the state would be out there $50,000 in permit app money. 

[WAcoueshunter]

My neighbor says he didn't draw it also. I sort of didn't believe him. I agree with Longwalker. OTC. Lots of folks that draw it don't buy it. The folks like my neighbor and Radsav couldve bought one of they wanted to.

Agreed, that would be so much easier and efficient.  Make it OTC, and sales cut off when they hit 8500.  Or if they are banking that a certain percentage won't purchase, then cut it off when sales hit 6000 or whatever.  Charge an extra $6 if they're worried about losing the application fee, it won't make a difference. 

[Bob33]

This tag needs to go over the counter. Then the three guys who didn't draw it but wanted it could buy it unlike probably 30% of the guys that drew it and then didn't want to spend the money. Silly draw tag

I suspect that's already been factored in. They don't want to issue more than 5,000, and know they can sell 8500 without exceeding that.

[longwalker]

That math doesn't quit work. 9000 some odd guys putting in for it and if 5000 are only buying it why would tag sales sky rocket past that if it went over the counter? A guy that doesnt have 5 bucks to put in for it is all the sudden going to have 160 burning a hole in his pocket to buy the tag. Up the price, go over the counter and bingo, status quo. Just like Washington likes