Baiting on the chopping block

[bobcat]

One choice instead of the two, or four, that we have now will not change the overall odds. It would increase odds for some hunts and decrease drawing odds for others. There's no way to know if your favorite hunt choice would become easier to draw.

How would it decrease the odds of any of them?

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More people decide to pick a particular hunt for their one and only choice.

And you think that one pick wouldn't be one of the four they would pick if it stayed the same?

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Yes probably so. But now it's everyone's first choice.

[Curly]

Every additional choice an applicant has is like having that many more applicants in the pool.  We all know that if you reduce the number of applications, the odds will get better.  (either reduce the applications or increase the permits to increase odds)

[bobcat]

Every additional choice an applicant has is like having that many more applicants in the pool.

No it's not.

[huntnphool]

One choice instead of the two, or four, that we have now will not change the overall odds. It would increase odds for some hunts and decrease drawing odds for others. There's no way to know if your favorite hunt choice would become easier to draw.

 

Like I said, I'd be okay with only one choice per application. I just don't feel it would make much difference on odds of drawing.

 If multiple choices does not give you better odds of drawing a permit, then why do they have different choices, 1 through 4?

 It should be easy to understand that if your number comes up for choices, and your first choice has already been filled by other applicants, but your second choice has not and you are issued a permit, your odds of actually getting a permit indeed increased by having that second choice!

[grundy53]

One choice instead of the two, or four, that we have now will not change the overall odds. It would increase odds for some hunts and decrease drawing odds for others. There's no way to know if your favorite hunt choice would become easier to draw.

How would it decrease the odds of any of them?

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More people decide to pick a particular hunt for their one and only choice.

And you think that one pick wouldn't be one of the four they would pick if it stayed the same?

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Yes probably so. But now it's everyone's first choice.

I would think everyone's first would most likely stay their first choice. I don't see why their choice would change.

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[bobcat]

One choice instead of the two, or four, that we have now will not change the overall odds. It would increase odds for some hunts and decrease drawing odds for others. There's no way to know if your favorite hunt choice would become easier to draw.

 

Like I said, I'd be okay with only one choice per application. I just don't feel it would make much difference on odds of drawing.

 If multiple choices does not give you better odds of drawing a permit, then why do they have different choices, 1 through 4?

 It should be easy to understand that if your number comes up for choices, and your first choice has already been filled by other applicants, but your second choice has not and you are issued a permit, your odds of actually getting a permit indeed increased by having that second choice!

Now you're talking about something entirely different.

To simplify this, let's say there are 1,000 permits in a particular category. Let's say 10,000 people apply for those hunts. The overall odds of drawing one of those permits is 1 in 10. No matter how many choices are available on an application, the odds are 1 in 10. There's nothing you can do to change the fact that only 1 out of 10 people will draw a permit in that category.

[huntnphool]

One choice instead of the two, or four, that we have now will not change the overall odds. It would increase odds for some hunts and decrease drawing odds for others. There's no way to know if your favorite hunt choice would become easier to draw.

 

Like I said, I'd be okay with only one choice per application. I just don't feel it would make much difference on odds of drawing.

 If multiple choices does not give you better odds of drawing a permit, then why do they have different choices, 1 through 4?

 It should be easy to understand that if your number comes up for choices, and your first choice has already been filled by other applicants, but your second choice has not and you are issued a permit, your odds of actually getting a permit indeed increased by having that second choice!

Now you're talking about something entirely different.

To simplify this, let's say there are 1,000 permits in a particular category. Let's say 10,000 people apply for those hunts. The overall odds of drawing one of those permits is 1 in 10. No matter how many choices are available on an application, the odds are 1 in 10. There's nothing you can do to change the fact that only 1 out of 10 people will draw a permit in that category.

 I understand that Bob, but what you don't take into account is that if there was only 1 choice, then there wouldn't be 10000 applicants.

[bobcat]

One choice instead of the two, or four, that we have now will not change the overall odds. It would increase odds for some hunts and decrease drawing odds for others. There's no way to know if your favorite hunt choice would become easier to draw.

How would it decrease the odds of any of them?

Sent from my E6782 using Tapatalk

More people decide to pick a particular hunt for their one and only choice.

And you think that one pick wouldn't be one of the four they would pick if it stayed the same?

Sent from my E6782 using Tapatalk

Yes probably so. But now it's everyone's first choice.

I would think everyone's first would most likely stay their first choice. I don't see why their choice would change.

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Mine would change. I would apply for a permit that had better odds of drawing if I had only one choice. With multiple choices I usually put in for hunts with nearly impossible odds. The hunt I think I have a decent chance to draw will be last on my list of choices.

[bobcat]

One choice instead of the two, or four, that we have now will not change the overall odds. It would increase odds for some hunts and decrease drawing odds for others. There's no way to know if your favorite hunt choice would become easier to draw.

 

Like I said, I'd be okay with only one choice per application. I just don't feel it would make much difference on odds of drawing.

 If multiple choices does not give you better odds of drawing a permit, then why do they have different choices, 1 through 4?

 It should be easy to understand that if your number comes up for choices, and your first choice has already been filled by other applicants, but your second choice has not and you are issued a permit, your odds of actually getting a permit indeed increased by having that second choice!

Now you're talking about something entirely different.

To simplify this, let's say there are 1,000 permits in a particular category. Let's say 10,000 people apply for those hunts. The overall odds of drawing one of those permits is 1 in 10. No matter how many choices are available on an application, the odds are 1 in 10. There's nothing you can do to change the fact that only 1 out of 10 people will draw a permit in that category.

 I understand that Bob, but what you don't take into account is that if there was only 1 choice, then there wouldn't be 10000 applicants.

No, you didn't understand.

Answer this question- quality applications only allow two choices now. So is a quality permit easy to draw compared to when you had four choices?

[grundy53]

One choice instead of the two, or four, that we have now will not change the overall odds. It would increase odds for some hunts and decrease drawing odds for others. There's no way to know if your favorite hunt choice would become easier to draw.

How would it decrease the odds of any of them?

Sent from my E6782 using Tapatalk

More people decide to pick a particular hunt for their one and only choice.

And you think that one pick wouldn't be one of the four they would pick if it stayed the same?

Sent from my E6782 using Tapatalk

Yes probably so. But now it's everyone's first choice.

I would think everyone's first would most likely stay their first choice. I don't see why their choice would change.

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Mine would change. I would apply for a permit that had better odds of drawing if I had only one choice. With multiple choices I usually put in for hunts with nearly impossible odds. The hunt I think I have a decent chance to draw will be last on my list of choices.

Which would improve the odds of the hunts you will no longer be choosing. The hunt you would now be choosing will have better odds because everyone is not putting in for it with their fourth choice.

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[bobcat]

One choice instead of the two, or four, that we have now will not change the overall odds. It would increase odds for some hunts and decrease drawing odds for others. There's no way to know if your favorite hunt choice would become easier to draw.

How would it decrease the odds of any of them?

Sent from my E6782 using Tapatalk

More people decide to pick a particular hunt for their one and only choice.

And you think that one pick wouldn't be one of the four they would pick if it stayed the same?

Sent from my E6782 using Tapatalk

Yes probably so. But now it's everyone's first choice.

I would think everyone's first would most likely stay their first choice. I don't see why their choice would change.

Sent from my E6782 using Tapatalk

Mine would change. I would apply for a permit that had better odds of drawing if I had only one choice. With multiple choices I usually put in for hunts with nearly impossible odds. The hunt I think I have a decent chance to draw will be last on my list of choices.

Which would improve the odds of the hunts you will no longer be choosing. The hunt you would now be choosing will have better odds because everyone is not putting in for it with their fourth choice.

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Possibly, yes. But how can that be predicted? I don't know what other people would do. Either way, some permits WOULD become easier to draw, but other permits would then have to become more difficult. It's an impossibility to make better odds for ALL permits.

[huntnphool]

One choice instead of the two, or four, that we have now will not change the overall odds. It would increase odds for some hunts and decrease drawing odds for others. There's no way to know if your favorite hunt choice would become easier to draw.

 

Like I said, I'd be okay with only one choice per application. I just don't feel it would make much difference on odds of drawing.

 If multiple choices does not give you better odds of drawing a permit, then why do they have different choices, 1 through 4?

 It should be easy to understand that if your number comes up for choices, and your first choice has already been filled by other applicants, but your second choice has not and you are issued a permit, your odds of actually getting a permit indeed increased by having that second choice!

Now you're talking about something entirely different.

To simplify this, let's say there are 1,000 permits in a particular category. Let's say 10,000 people apply for those hunts. The overall odds of drawing one of those permits is 1 in 10. No matter how many choices are available on an application, the odds are 1 in 10. There's nothing you can do to change the fact that only 1 out of 10 people will draw a permit in that category.

 I understand that Bob, but what you don't take into account is that if there was only 1 choice, then there wouldn't be 10000 applicants.

No, you didn't understand.

Answer this question- quality applications only allow two choices now. So is a quality permit easy to draw compared to when you had four choices?

 Yes Bob, because with two choices their are less people applying for that same permit than four.

 Let's make this easy for even you to understand Bob. If your first choice has 1000 first choice applicants, but there are 500 other people that have that same hunt as their second choice, you are not 1-1000, you are 1-1500 if their number comes up before yours.

 Without that second choice, your odds of drawing have improved because it just eliminated 500 others from possibly being drawn before you.

[bobcat]

Like I already said, certain hunts COULD have better odds with less choices on the applications. But others would then have worse odds.

You can't possibly know if the odds for your favorite unit would go up or down.

[Bob33]

One choice instead of the two, or four, that we have now will not change the overall odds. It would increase odds for some hunts and decrease drawing odds for others. There's no way to know if your favorite hunt choice would become easier to draw.

 

Like I said, I'd be okay with only one choice per application. I just don't feel it would make much difference on odds of drawing.

 If multiple choices does not give you better odds of drawing a permit, then why do they have different choices, 1 through 4?

 It should be easy to understand that if your number comes up for choices, and your first choice has already been filled by other applicants, but your second choice has not and you are issued a permit, your odds of actually getting a permit indeed increased by having that second choice!

Now you're talking about something entirely different.

To simplify this, let's say there are 1,000 permits in a particular category. Let's say 10,000 people apply for those hunts. The overall odds of drawing one of those permits is 1 in 10. No matter how many choices are available on an application, the odds are 1 in 10. There's nothing you can do to change the fact that only 1 out of 10 people will draw a permit in that category.

 I understand that Bob, but what you don't take into account is that if there was only 1 choice, then there wouldn't be 10000 applicants.

No, you didn't understand.

Answer this question- quality applications only allow two choices now. So is a quality permit easy to draw compared to when you had four choices?

 Yes Bob, because with two choices their are less people applying for that same permit than four.

 Let's make this easy for even you to understand Bob. If your first choice has 1000 first choice applicants, but there are 500 other people that have that same hunt as their second choice, you are not 1-1000, you are 1-1500 if their number comes up before yours.

 Without that second choice, your odds of drawing have improved because it just eliminated 500 others from possibly being drawn before you.

Some of the 500 will draw their first choice and not be competing, but the odds of Bob drawing his first choice should conceivably decline. That is offset by the possibility that he's still in the running for a permit with three other choices.

[Wacenturion]

One choice instead of the two, or four, that we have now will not change the overall odds. It would increase odds for some hunts and decrease drawing odds for others. There's no way to know if your favorite hunt choice would become easier to draw.

 

Like I said, I'd be okay with only one choice per application. I just don't feel it would make much difference on odds of drawing.

 If multiple choices does not give you better odds of drawing a permit, then why do they have different choices, 1 through 4?

 It should be easy to understand that if your number comes up for choices, and your first choice has already been filled by other applicants, but your second choice has not and you are issued a permit, your odds of actually getting a permit indeed increased by having that second choice!

Now you're talking about something entirely different.

To simplify this, let's say there are 1,000 permits in a particular category. Let's say 10,000 people apply for those hunts. The overall odds of drawing one of those permits is 1 in 10. No matter how many choices are available on an application, the odds are 1 in 10. There's nothing you can do to change the fact that only 1 out of 10 people will draw a permit in that category.

 I understand that Bob, but what you don't take into account is that if there was only 1 choice, then there wouldn't be 10000 applicants.

Thank you!