the Methow is even worse off than I thought

[Igor]

if hunters are not seeing the signs, honestly they can’t be paying attention.

Well, I've been paying attention.  I just could never figure out how all those dang deer were getting up in those trees..........now I know.

[idaho guy]

So I wonder what's different about the last 25+ years in the methow from the previous tens of thousands of years where virtually unhunted cougars, wolves, and bears co-existed with mule deer? I'm especially curious to hear from those who are arguing human expansion and habitat degradation are not even "on the list" of factors limiting methow mule deer.

Nobody reasonable is suggesting predators aren't an issue.  But to ignore habitat degradation and human expansion is very shortsighted.  Predators and prey can often be cyclical in abundance.  The mule deer herds ability to rebound is dependent on quantity and quality of habitat. Reducing habitat quality or quantity exacerbates predator issues and makes a rebound much, much more difficult. 

Human population data shows the Methow valley growing at twice the rate (% change) as Seattle for the 2010-2017 period.  Combine this with the overall increased population visiting to hunt, hike, atv, snowmobile, shed hunt etc. And add in second homes, development, fires, fencing, etc...and that is where my statement comes from...human expansion and associated habitat degradation is a major long term factor in wildlife abundance across many parts of the western US...and this very basic fact is not mutually exclusive of predator impacts...but I'm always amused at the purity tests applied on this forum where any discussion of impacts from something without claws and teeth is perceived as pushing a liberal conspiracy to end hunting and take your guns. 
[/quote 


The difference between the thousands of years before and predators and deer is the North American wildlife model. They killed off a lot of predators and started managing for excess deer and elk,established seasons and sold tags to raise money to go back to benefiting deer and elk and improving habitat. I know you know this and how it works. What most people don’t realize is there wasn’t very many deer in a lot of places before we started doing this. I knew quite a few of the old ranchers in eastern Montana in the 80’s that told me it was uncommon to see deer in the early 1900’s and in the 80’s they were all over and you could shoot 6 with otc tags and 5 had to be does. What has happened in Washington is they have flipped the North American wildlife model on its head by managing for excess predators . Once you do that the whole system falls apart because there isn’t an excess of deer to even hunt much less sell very many tags. I guess it doesn’t currently effect me but I think it’s a shame. Look up the population growth of North American deer over the last 100 years. The old timers eliminated wolfs for a reason. We don’t have to eliminate but controlling is absolutely necessary. I also agree habitat is super important long term but it’s not the immediate problem

[NOCK NOCK]

if hunters are not seeing the signs, honestly they can’t be paying attention.

Well, I've been paying attention.  I just could never figure out how all those dang deer were getting up in those trees..........now I know.

Ahhhh, the human predator.  Seems a lot of folks still hunt the methow…...even though knowing the condition of the herd.

Do humans have teeth and claws???

Idahohunter is right you know...….Seems like a "never cry wolf" scenario sometimes......Even with dwindling herds, there is a exponential growth of predators.....how is that? What are they eating to expand their masses since there are so few deer left?


Don't get me wrong, I do realize predators are an issue, but just one of many issues, not THE Issue.   

[bigmacc]

So I wonder what's different about the last 25+ years in the methow from the previous tens of thousands of years where virtually unhunted cougars, wolves, and bears co-existed with mule deer? I'm especially curious to hear from those who are arguing human expansion and habitat degradation are not even "on the list" of factors limiting methow mule deer.

Nobody reasonable is suggesting predators aren't an issue.  But to ignore habitat degradation and human expansion is very shortsighted.  Predators and prey can often be cyclical in abundance.  The mule deer herds ability to rebound is dependent on quantity and quality of habitat. Reducing habitat quality or quantity exacerbates predator issues and makes a rebound much, much more difficult. 

Human population data shows the Methow valley growing at twice the rate (% change) as Seattle for the 2010-2017 period.  Combine this with the overall increased population visiting to hunt, hike, atv, snowmobile, shed hunt etc. And add in second homes, development, fires, fencing, etc...and that is where my statement comes from...human expansion and associated habitat degradation is a major long term factor in wildlife abundance across many parts of the western US...and this very basic fact is not mutually exclusive of predator impacts...but I'm always amused at the purity tests applied on this forum where any discussion of impacts from something without claws and teeth is perceived as pushing a liberal conspiracy to end hunting and take your guns. 
[/quote 


The difference between the thousands of years before and predators and deer is the North American wildlife model. They killed off a lot of predators and started managing for excess deer and elk,established seasons and sold tags to raise money to go back to benefiting deer and elk and improving habitat. I know you know this and how it works. What most people don’t realize is there wasn’t very many deer in a lot of places before we started doing this. I knew quite a few of the old ranchers in eastern Montana in the 80’s that told me it was uncommon to see deer in the early 1900’s and in the 80’s they were all over and you could shoot 6 with otc tags and 5 had to be does. What has happened in Washington is they have flipped the North American wildlife model on its head by managing for excess predators . Once you do that the whole system falls apart because there isn’t an excess of deer to even hunt much less sell very many tags. I guess it doesn’t currently effect me but I think it’s a shame. Look up the population growth of North American deer over the last 100 years. The old timers eliminated wolfs for a reason. We don’t have to eliminate but controlling is absolutely necessary. I also agree habitat is super important long term but it’s not the immediate problem

Well said Idahoguy, my great grandparents knew a Game fella back in the day that actually worked on the N. A wildlife model, I wish my dad was still around, I know his first name was Gabe and he was from Alaska, I don't remember his role in it, just that he was involved in someway, his name was on the back of one of the pictures I posted on here years ago, he had a huge non-typical that he killed over there, the writing on the back my great grandma wrote said "Gabe and his huge buck before he became a Warden" it said something else including a year but it was smeared and weathered, he hunted mule deer in the Methow with my great grandparents for many years and they would go up to Alaska to fish and hunt moose and caribou with him....bigmacc

[bigmacc]

if hunters are not seeing the signs, honestly they can’t be paying attention.

Well, I've been paying attention.  I just could never figure out how all those dang deer were getting up in those trees..........now I know.

Ahhhh, the human predator.  Seems a lot of folks still hunt the methow…...even though knowing the condition of the herd.

Do humans have teeth and claws???

Idahohunter is right you know...….Seems like a "never cry wolf" scenario sometimes......Even with dwindling herds, there is a exponential growth of predators.....how is that? What are they eating to expand their masses since there are so few deer left?


Don't get me wrong, I do realize predators are an issue, but just one of many issues, not THE Issue.   

Oh there are deer still there for the predators and eventually the predators will die or move on or disperse when numbers get to low I would imagine , according to estimates there are still around 15,000 deer(give or take) in the valley, thats down from its peak of 35-40,000.  Hunters and locals every year are seeing less and less deer in this valley, that is a fact and every year more and more predators or sign of predators are being seen, also a fact, and once again I will say again, I have said many times there are many issues that have contributed to the decline of this herd, your opinion is it,s not "THE Issue" my opinion formed from my history and observations going back 100 years is that for this particular herd the predator issue is the number one(NOT THE ONLY) but THE NO 1 Issue contributing to the decline of this particular herd over the last 25 years....my  we just disagree, no snide remarks or sarcasm pointed in your direction

[huntnphool]

Just FYI - There are far more than 4000 elk in Yellowstone NP. They just counted 5800 in the northern herd and this just inside the park, that doesnt count the other herds in the GYE.  Im not pro wolf, whatever that means.  I like to see pictures of dead ones and I like that they exist on the landscape at the same time. I agree they need to be aggressively managed and we cant start hunting them here in WA soon enough.

I still think loss of habitat and our own human expansion is the biggest issue for the Central WA deer herds decline.  Not to mention the recent fires and roads everywhere that see year round traffic.   I 100% agree though, we need better predator management, let the hounds men do their thing.

Spot on.  Human expansion and associated habitat degradation don't leave teeth marks like a wolf so people have a harder time "seeing" the effects.  No doubt, it is a major factor in long-term wildlife abundance for many parts of the Western US.

Well, cougars "don't leave teeth marks like a wolf' either, nor does a bear or a coyote, they are all different and their populations are and have been growing and expanding in this valley over the last 25 or so years. As far as the Methow herds decline goes, many different reasons, once again my top 3-Predators, mis management of predators and mis management of the herd itself, loss of habitat is way down the list, IF even on the paper. There is a lot of country in this valley A LOT and like some have said there is a lot of feed in this valley, even after the fires there was still an abundance of feed in some great historic winter range in the north part of the valley which is where we would see THOUSANDS of deer wintering before the predator boom, now and even before the fires you are lucky to see 50 out and about on a December weekend, the building of houses didn't cause that big of a drop over the last 25 or so years. The time frame of the start of this herds drastic decline coincides with 3 events, the outlawing of hounds and how we were able to hunt predators in this valley, the arriving of the wolf in this valley and the doing away of the Department of Game. Yep, the population of humans is growing in the valley and the deer don't seem to mind, but a lot of those folks are not hunter friendly (which doesn't do us as hunters any good, but offers the deer safety) and they feed them, plus there presence seems to serve as a buffer from wolves, cats, bears and yotes, for crying out loud for a 3 day period I seen a group of does and bucks inhabit a guys lawn and patio, even laying on his outdoor furniture! Fact is, what deer are left in this valley seem to be attracted to civilization for survival and thats not the way it should be but if you were being pursued by predators 24/7/365 you learn to adapt to survive. Its hard to argue with folks who know this valley like the back of their hand and have history here(yes, I am one) and there are many, and yes some have been tormented for their beliefs but like others have said its all coming to truth, wolf populations are here and are growing and they are killing a lot of deer, cougar numbers are booming and they are killing even more deer, coyotes are growing and killing yearlings and fawns and bear numbers are growing and taking out lots of fawns and these killers ARE NOT being managed for the health and growth of this mule deer herd, in fact the way they(predators) are being managed is doing the exact opposite for this herd. You want to know why you could see thousands of deer over a weekend in December in the Methow 25-30 years ago and now you are lucky to see 50, its not fires and houses because the decline was already in full swing before the house boom and it was in full swing before the fires, come on now, is it really just a coincidence this all started when wolves showed up and the gloves were put on concerning how we hunt cougar and bear AND the Game Department went away?....Well you know what, maybe some others are "wearing the tin foil hats"

I guess you will be proven right very soon then...predators are at insanely high levels and the prey are nearly extinct.  So the last few surviving deer will be eaten by the massive number of wolves, cougars, and bears...all hunting will end in the methow and that will be that.  My question to you, since you are an authoritative figure with extensive knowledge of this herd...Do you think all the methow deer will be gone before this fall or will they make it one more year?  Certainly there wont be any left in 2 years at the rate predators are increasing...right?

 You are right Idaho, there is no predator problem. The problem is the habitat loss due to all the track housing and development across the Mathew the last ten years....how have we missed this!!!

 Wake up and smell the *censored* you're shoveling man!... .SMFH

Your vulgar and personal attacks dont seem to add a lot of value    Can you answer the question?  How many months until all the deer are gone...its simple supply...the deer are declining rapidly and the predators are increasing exponentially...that cant last forever hp...so answer the question...seems you should know since you are so smart?  Give a specific timeline so the rest of us that dont hunt that area know what to expect.

 Vulgar and personal attacks? How about you post up the "attacks" that hurt your feely feely's!

 It's interesting you continue to bloviate your opinion in this thread, yet admit you don't hunt the area or know what to expect.

 Clearly just another wolf loving antagonist on this forum IMO

Your language doesn't bother me personally, it just doesn't add a lot of value.

You say predators are skyrocketing and deer are declining rapidly...that cant be sustained.  So how long before the deer are gone?

 1) Don't spin what you said, please post up the language in my post that offended you!

 2) Post up a quote of me saying the predators are skyrocketing and deer numbers declining rapidly and can't be sustained.

 3) Perhaps you have me confused with someone else's comments you are butthurt about?
 

[Skyvalhunter]

So the soap opera continues. Funny how people can look at the same wording and see different things. Oh what a tangled web we weave. One thing anyone that has a history in the Methow can agree on is the current deer population is in need of some help to say the least

[NOCK NOCK]

Just a thought I have not seen in this entire thread.......

Maybe, just maybe.......the reason folks are under the impression they are seeing more predators(especially lions) could be that they are having to spend more time hunting for their prey which puts them in a position to be seen more???
So technically the cougar population may not be exponentially larger and growing, we may just be seeing them more.  There’s something for y’all to chew on. 

[JimmyHoffa]

Just a thought I have not seen in this entire thread.......

Maybe, just maybe.......the reason folks are under the impression they are seeing more predators(especially lions) could be that they are having to spend more time hunting for their prey which puts them in a position to be seen more???
So technically the cougar population may not be exponentially larger and growing, we may just be seeing them more.  There’s something for y’all to chew on. 

If that is the case, then WDFW should be seeing that the ratio of predators to prey has risen and be proactively lowering the predator numbers to have enough deer and elk for humans.
I think it is safe to say wolves don't fit the theory, they really have moved in that area and are growing.  If lions were at a stable number, the wolves could be stealing lion kills causing the lions to have to hunt more and be seen more--kind of what you are suggesting.

[idaho guy]

Just a thought I have not seen in this entire thread.......

Maybe, just maybe.......the reason folks are under the impression they are seeing more predators(especially lions) could be that they are having to spend more time hunting for their prey which puts them in a position to be seen more???
So technically the cougar population may not be exponentially larger and growing, we may just be seeing them more.  There’s something for y’all to chew on. 

If that is the case, then WDFW should be seeing that the ratio of predators to prey has risen and be proactively lowering the predator numbers to have enough deer and elk for humans.
I think it is safe to say wolves don't fit the theory, they really have moved in that area and are growing.  If lions were at a stable number, the wolves could be stealing lion kills causing the lions to have to hunt more and be seen more--kind of what you are suggesting.

.
 
One lion kills average 52 deer a year. If your deer herd is less than 50 percent of historical numbers you would think aggressively reducing lions would be 1 possible solution  :chuckle:It was studied in Coeur D Alene river the wolves were stealing lion kills and forcing lions to kill up to twice as much.

[JimmyHoffa]

I saw something about wolves in yellowstone being run off kills by grizzlies.  The bears used to den throughout winter.  Now they are awake for most of it.  The bears follow wolves around and chase them off kills, forcing the wolves to kill more moose, elk and deer.

[NOCK NOCK]

Just a thought I have not seen in this entire thread.......

Maybe, just maybe.......the reason folks are under the impression they are seeing more predators(especially lions) could be that they are having to spend more time hunting for their prey which puts them in a position to be seen more???
So technically the cougar population may not be exponentially larger and growing, we may just be seeing them more.  There’s something for y’all to chew on. 

If that is the case, then WDFW should be seeing that the ratio of predators to prey has risen and be proactively lowering the predator numbers to have enough deer and elk for humans.
I think it is safe to say wolves don't fit the theory, they really have moved in that area and are growing.  If lions were at a stable number, the wolves could be stealing lion kills causing the lions to have to hunt more and be seen more--kind of what you are suggesting.

Yes theroy fits for cats more than wolves.
As far WDFW, they have zero idea how many lions are anywhere, to expect them to “manage” cats/predators is a pipe dream for us.

[Skyvalhunter]

They also have no idea how many wolves I.e. the wolf scat study

[bigmacc]

Lets put it this way, we may all be agreeing with each other here . One thing for sure is their are more cats in this valley than there were 25 years ago, there are more bears, just for the reason they are not being successfully hunted and killed as they were after more "successful ways" were outlawed,  whether it be 10 more or 100, fact is there are more, fact is another apex predator has established itself in this valley(wolf) and who's numbers are growing and expanding within the valley and if because of that its forcing the existing population of cats and bears to have to hunt more and harder for their food, which means they are being seen more, I could get on board with that. Bottom line is, there is a "predator issue" in this valley, what ever way you look at it, spin it or connect the dots, thousands upon thousands upon thousands of deer in this particular herd are gone and continue to disappear SINCE the gloves were put on concerning how predators were hunted, trapped and killed in this state, plus the arrival of the wolf and its growth within the valley AND the way ALL these predators are being managed. Add it all up, connect all those dots, count all these kills people are noticing more and more over the last 25 years, sightings, confrontations etc. etc., I think some folks have said this valley is becoming a "predator pit", it is actually starting to look more and more like one. No one really knows how long this herd can sustain this kind of onslaught by predators,  including the state, one thing is for certain, this herd has taken a beating and the "predator issue" in this valley(however anybody wants to look at it) has and is not being addressed and its because of that this herd continues to be hit hard by predation.   My book,  THE number 1 issue(amongst others) facing the health, growth and success of the Methow mule deer herd is the "predator issue".....Over and out.     

[borntoslay]

So the soap opera continues. Funny how people can look at the same wording and see different things. Oh what a tangled web we weave. One thing anyone that has a history in the Methow can agree on is the current deer population is in need of some help to say the least

Inserts Kieth Morrison voice

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