The chance at a chance (drawing odds/%)

[carlyoungs]

I play every year. The way I look at it is it the same as my wife and I going to the casino for a night. $400 dollars and I have a chance. I have drawn some sort of tag every year for the past 3 years .  That is cheap entertainment for me. Hopefully I draw a branched bull tag this year. If not maybe Idaho.  Only 600 bucks.

[CarbonHunter]

I play every year. The way I look at it is it the same as my wife and I going to the casino for a night. $400 dollars and I have a chance. I have drawn some sort of tag every year for the past 3 years .  That is cheap entertainment for me. Hopefully I draw a branched bull tag this year. If not maybe Idaho.  Only 600 bucks.

Good point because every time people visit a tribal casino and give them the $400 they in turn give fuel to a tribal member to go kill another trophy animal. Technically giving the $400 to a tribal casino isn’t the same but it actually reduces your chance of getting a tag in the future because a tribal member took another critter with your money. Just an idea to ponder.

[Bullkllr]

I play every year. The way I look at it is it the same as my wife and I going to the casino for a night. $400 dollars and I have a chance. I have drawn some sort of tag every year for the past 3 years .  That is cheap entertainment for me. Hopefully I draw a branched bull tag this year. If not maybe Idaho.  Only 600 bucks.

Good point because every time people visit a tribal casino and give them the $400 they in turn give fuel to a tribal member to go kill another trophy animal. Technically giving the $400 to a tribal casino isn’t the same but it actually reduces your chance of getting a tag in the future because a tribal member took another critter with your money. Just an idea to ponder.

Around here it's more likely they just use it to buy the woods...so...

[Stein]

Did you adjust for the change in tag numbers between 2018 and 2019?

If I didn’t adjust the tag numbers why would the odds have changed?

More people applying and squaring the points.  The odds go down even if the tags stay the same.  Too many people with a ton of points.


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[sagerat]

I play every year. The way I look at it is it the same as my wife and I going to the casino for a night. $400 dollars and I have a chance. I have drawn some sort of tag every year for the past 3 years .  That is cheap entertainment for me. Hopefully I draw a branched bull tag this year. If not maybe Idaho.  Only 600 bucks.

Good point because every time people visit a tribal casino and give them the $400 they in turn give fuel to a tribal member to go kill another trophy animal. Technically giving the $400 to a tribal casino isn’t the same but it actually reduces your chance of getting a tag in the future because a tribal member took another critter with your money. Just an idea to ponder.

   do not donate to that circus

[CarbonHunter]

I play every year. The way I look at it is it the same as my wife and I going to the casino for a night. $400 dollars and I have a chance. I have drawn some sort of tag every year for the past 3 years .  That is cheap entertainment for me. Hopefully I draw a branched bull tag this year. If not maybe Idaho.  Only 600 bucks.

Good point because every time people visit a tribal casino and give them the $400 they in turn give fuel to a tribal member to go kill another trophy animal. Technically giving the $400 to a tribal casino isn’t the same but it actually reduces your chance of getting a tag in the future because a tribal member took another critter with your money. Just an idea to ponder.

Around here it's more likely they just use it to buy the woods...so...

Yep buy the land here then jump the crest and kill the elk. I’ve seen it with my own eyes.

[Igottanewknee]

I don't have a degree in statistics but am smart enough to know if you don't apply your chances are 0%.  Not trying to be "that guy" but in 2006 I applied for a special hunt moose permit with 1 point and got drawn. it can be done

Now there's a s-ton of us that hate you all of the sudden. And I'm sure you're a nice guy. 

[Bango skank]

I don't have a degree in statistics but am smart enough to know if you don't apply your chances are 0%.  Not trying to be "that guy" but in 2006 I applied for a special hunt moose permit with 1 point and got drawn. it can be done

Now there's a s-ton of us that hate you all of the sudden. And I'm sure you're a nice guy. 

Now add in 13 years of point creep

[Rainier10]

Did you adjust for the change in tag numbers between 2018 and 2019?

If I didn’t adjust the tag numbers why would the odds have changed?

More people applying and squaring the points.  The odds go down even if the tags stay the same.  Too many people with a ton of points.


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WDFW purposefully created the problem.  They needed more revenue.  People were only buying applications on the years that they were available to hunt.  Some people hunt here every year no matter what.  Others have vacations, weddings, out of state hunts or whatever come up and don't hunt here or put in for special permits every year.  By rolling points over they knew even on years that you couldn't hunt you wouldn't want to lose ground so you buy the application and put in for points only.  It had nothing to do with giving people better odds, it doesn't, but it does generate more revenue because people buy the application every year whether they can hunt or not.

[boneaddict]

  Been saying it for years.  Still blows me away how people embrace the point systems and think its better.   

[CarbonHunter]

Did you adjust for the change in tag numbers between 2018 and 2019?

If I didn’t adjust the tag numbers why would the odds have changed?

More people applying and squaring the points.  The odds go down even if the tags stay the same.  Too many people with a ton of points.


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WDFW purposefully created the problem.  They needed more revenue.  People were only buying applications on the years that they were available to hunt.  Some people hunt here every year no matter what.  Others have vacations, weddings, out of state hunts or whatever come up and don't hunt here or put in for special permits every year.  By rolling points over they knew even on years that you couldn't hunt you wouldn't want to lose ground so you buy the application and put in for points only.  It had nothing to do with giving people better odds, it doesn't, but it does generate more revenue because people buy the application every year whether they can hunt or not.

This isn’t what the state was thinking when they created the new draw system in the 90’s. The problem is they didn’t think it through at the time. This system was developed to replace the old system of no points but if you applied you were penalized by loosing days during the general season.

When the state went to spike only east, 3 point or better west and 3 point for mule deer along with eliminating the late mule deer hunt people were outraged. In order to calm people down they created this system and it worked fine until people who were holding out for quality tags complained they weren’t able to draw a cow without loosing their points. Then the state created the category mess we have now and that’s when the revenue storm began.

Keep in mind when this began you only bought one application for each species and there was plenty of tags to draw. Often doe and cow tags had more tags then applications so if you wanted a tag you could get one, maybe not the tag you wanted but you could get a tag.

[sagerat]

 

I remember those days. Odds of drawing a bull tag were way better because a ton of guys applied for cow tags. Wish we could go back!

[CarbonHunter]

Yep and guys could consistently draw cow tags every 2-3 years and if lucky they could sometimes draw a bull tag on their first choice.

We could go back if everyone would stop saying “there’s no going back” but there would be some people with a lot of points when you add all their categories for a species back into one application for a species.

[Stein]

We would also need to go back to when there were many more tags and much fewer applicants.

That’s one reason we can’t go back.


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[sagerat]

We would also need to go back to when there were many more tags and much fewer applicants.

That’s one reason we can’t go back.


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I disagree. Yes we do have fewer permits and more people but it would still help draw odds.