Idaho's affect on Montana for 2021???

[actionshooter]

I was really optimistic that Montana wasn't going to see an increase with the initial panic buying in Idaho. I believe most hunters only hunt one state and thought a bunch were going for the guaranteed tag vs the draw, but with Idaho having 4K+ tags still available, that was wishful thinking....

[Bigshooter]

I was really optimistic that Montana wasn't going to see an increase with the initial panic buying in Idaho. I believe most hunters only hunt one state and thought a bunch were going for the guaranteed tag vs the draw, but with Idaho having 4K+ tags still available, that was wishful thinking....

It's still December.  At this rate they will all be gone by the end of January.  Which is 6 months earlier than last year.

[grade-creek-rd]

For those that thought it I was ONLY going to Montana in my group of 4 (now 5...max group application) you might want to re-read my post...I am still going to Idaho AND Montana if drawn (like Karl is planning too). This thread is NOT all about Idaho, it is about how Idaho is affecting Montana (and possibly other states). I have the luxury to hunt multiple states, and will hunt Idaho as often as I can, however, it also means I will be now exploring other units in Idaho AND other states like Montana that I had never planned on hunting...

On another note, Idaho residents don't realize that with the new NR OTC tag system that breaks apart traditional groups, NR hunters will  actually be expanding their knowledge of Idaho's other units. More YouTube rockstars giving away which units to hunt, and more popularity to the state. Look at Bozeman, MT, it seems just about every "famous" TV star on the Outdoor Channel now base out of there along with hunting companies...I can foresee some of those upcoming stars/shows/companies re-locating to Idaho (along with lots of other people) and then you will have to limit resident tags. Just look at this forum, every year people on here ask where to move to, including Idaho, as they flee from the anti-hunting home of Washington especially and after this latest WDFW commissioner board appointee who is anti-hunting and pro-predator (wolf, bears and cougars) you will see the WDFW shape into an anti-hunting agency...but hey, we can all move to Idaho and not worry about the new NR OTC tag system!

Just look at the steelhead rivers in Grays Harbor area...WDFW shut down or destroyed Puget Sound rivers so anglers flooded Grays Harbor rivers and now they can't support all the influx (even with over 300,000 steelhead planted in the Chehalis system and tributaries) and are now being closed early and can't use bait or fish from a boat! With the population of Idaho growing so fast IDFG will need to shorten seasons, limit harvest (point restrictions, sex restrictions, etc) if they continue to allow residents to go unchecked, even with NR restrictions to 10%. And this will affect surrounding states...like Montana as hunters find other places to hunt. Again, be careful what you ask for, as you might just get it!


Grade

[idaho guy]

For those that thought it I was ONLY going to Montana in my group of 4 (now 5...max group application) you might want to re-read my post...I am still going to Idaho AND Montana if drawn (like Karl is planning too). This thread is NOT all about Idaho, it is about how Idaho is affecting Montana (and possibly other states). I have the luxury to hunt multiple states, and will hunt Idaho as often as I can, however, it also means I will be now exploring other units in Idaho AND other states like Montana that I had never planned on hunting...

On another note, Idaho residents don't realize that with the new NR OTC tag system that breaks apart traditional groups, NR hunters will  actually be expanding their knowledge of Idaho's other units. More YouTube rockstars giving away which units to hunt, and more popularity to the state. Look at Bozeman, MT, it seems just about every "famous" TV star on the Outdoor Channel now base out of there along with hunting companies...I can foresee some of those upcoming stars/shows/companies re-locating to Idaho (along with lots of other people) and then you will have to limit resident tags. Just look at this forum, every year people on here ask where to move to, including Idaho, as they flee from the anti-hunting home of Washington especially and after this latest WDFW commissioner board appointee who is anti-hunting and pro-predator (wolf, bears and cougars) you will see the WDFW shape into an anti-hunting agency...but hey, we can all move to Idaho and not worry about the new NR OTC tag system!

Just look at the steelhead rivers in Grays Harbor area...WDFW shut down or destroyed Puget Sound rivers so anglers flooded Grays Harbor rivers and now they can't support all the influx (even with over 300,000 steelhead planted in the Chehalis system and tributaries) and are now being closed early and can't use bait or fish from a boat! With the population of Idaho growing so fast IDFG will need to shorten seasons, limit harvest (point restrictions, sex restrictions, etc) if they continue to allow residents to go unchecked, even with NR restrictions to 10%. And this will affect surrounding states...like Montana as hunters find other places to hunt. Again, be careful what you ask for, as you might just get it!


Grade

 

  Idaho’s real problem is NEW resident hunters who previously had out of state plates! Restrictions on non residents is the right choice for Idaho fish and game. This is first step and I am grateful that they are addressing overcrowding with non residents first. The next step will be the hardest and it’s the elephant in the room which is what do we do with all the “new” resident hunters. One of the primary motivations for the people moving here that I talk too is hunting and to escape liberal politics so most new people are hunters. I have met some from Washington that moved they are great guys and good hunters but we are going to reach a tipping point where Idaho will have to go the way of resident draw system too. I just hope it’s many years away but we will see. Instagram “rock stars “ will continue to publicize good hunting areas regardless I disagree that picking units will lead to non residents discovering new honey hole hunting spots. It will make a lot of hunts better by limiting non residents just like 27 etc. for original topic I don’t think Idaho moves the needle much on out of state apps but will add a few that don’t get Idaho tags. Every year Montana odds get worse after they went 100 percent draw with the price increase odds go down a little each year. If you want to blame something blame the internet first, on x second and go hunt third then throw in hunting fool and all those publications. Technology is great if only you can use it those tools make everything known and too easy to figure out a hunting spot in a short period of time. On x specifically ruined hidden gems of public land that used to be hard to find and identify. I use on x but if you’re secret spots not so secret that is probably why.

[Rob]

I think the biggest impact on demand will not be Idaho vs MT vs WA, etc.

The biggest increase in demand in 2021 will be the sheer volumes of first time hunters from 2020.  The increase in Hunters Ed classes, first time gun buyers, etc is massive from 2020 and will likely trend that way in 2021 too.  This will put a lot of burden on the available tags, etc.

I received this from the Hunter Education Coordinator in a newsletter yesterday:

"As you likely know, our certification numbers skyrocketed, likely due to
many reasons; schools & sports cancelled, lack of competition for time,
families staying home, an opportunistic learning opportunity. As you might
expect, the relative monthly numbers were similar to normal years, only
much higher. I believe the highest daily certification number was around
325 in early to mid-October. As is typical, the total number of certifications
continues to grow by the day, and as of December 20, over 24,000
students were certified since March 16 via the all-online course. Prior to
March 16, around 1,500 students were certified through our normal
classes.
This increase is a national phenomenon. Most states that did not already offer an all-online course
offered that class format and saw similar increases in numbers. Hunting license sales increased, as did
most other types of outdoor recreation. National and state efforts are now turning towards efforts to
retain these new hunters by providing outreach, education, and opportunities to continue learning
about and experiencing hunting."

I am hoping the upside of this will be more voters in-tune with issues that impact hunting/fishing.

[Magnum_Willys]

Thats awesome news!!!!   Some silver lining on the pandemic.  24000 new hunters to help support our heritage!

[grade-creek-rd]

I totally agree Idaho Guy...what's really weird is I saw this back in the early 90's when I got stationed at Mt. Home AFB, they literally told us NOT to buy a car in Boise or if we did to immediately get new license plates for Elmore County as anyone with the 1A plate meant you are really from California and your car was likely to get vandalized...that was the beginning of the California invasion!

Grade

[bornhunter]

For those that thought it I was ONLY going to Montana in my group of 4 (now 5...max group application) you might want to re-read my post...I am still going to Idaho AND Montana if drawn (like Karl is planning too). This thread is NOT all about Idaho, it is about how Idaho is affecting Montana (and possibly other states). I have the luxury to hunt multiple states, and will hunt Idaho as often as I can, however, it also means I will be now exploring other units in Idaho AND other states like Montana that I had never planned on hunting...

On another note, Idaho residents don't realize that with the new NR OTC tag system that breaks apart traditional groups, NR hunters will  actually be expanding their knowledge of Idaho's other units. More YouTube rockstars giving away which units to hunt, and more popularity to the state. Look at Bozeman, MT, it seems just about every "famous" TV star on the Outdoor Channel now base out of there along with hunting companies...I can foresee some of those upcoming stars/shows/companies re-locating to Idaho (along with lots of other people) and then you will have to limit resident tags. Just look at this forum, every year people on here ask where to move to, including Idaho, as they flee from the anti-hunting home of Washington especially and after this latest WDFW commissioner board appointee who is anti-hunting and pro-predator (wolf, bears and cougars) you will see the WDFW shape into an anti-hunting agency...but hey, we can all move to Idaho and not worry about the new NR OTC tag system!

Just look at the steelhead rivers in Grays Harbor area...WDFW shut down or destroyed Puget Sound rivers so anglers flooded Grays Harbor rivers and now they can't support all the influx (even with over 300,000 steelhead planted in the Chehalis system and tributaries) and are now being closed early and can't use bait or fish from a boat! With the population of Idaho growing so fast IDFG will need to shorten seasons, limit harvest (point restrictions, sex restrictions, etc) if they continue to allow residents to go unchecked, even with NR restrictions to 10%. And this will affect surrounding states...like Montana as hunters find other places to hunt. Again, be careful what you ask for, as you might just get it!


Grade

Well said.

[dreamingbig]

(BG=Non Res Big Game combo and D=Non Res Deer combo)

So with one bonus point (bought at time of applying), 2018 odds were BG=100% and D=100%.  2019 odds were BG=77% and D=100%.  2020 odds were BG=68.5% and D=78.2%.

So the question is, as these tags get harder and harder to draw in the future, What will they be in 2021 as another variable is introduced and that being the changes in Idaho that will drive more hunters to find what they think are "Greener Pastures" in other non-resident states like Montana.  Im sure other states like Wyoming, Colorado, etc will also be affected.

My guess is that Montana will be down to 50% draw odds or less very soon.  Maybe even in year 2021. 

I think the recent stimulus checks will have more hunters looking at out of state opportunities.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[dvolmer]

Thats awesome news!!!!   Some silver lining on the pandemic.  24000 new hunters to help support our heritage!

Its sweet and scary at the same time in my opinion.  Yes we need to keep our hunting heritage, but is there room for them in the system the way it is now without having a big negative impact on the current hunting population?  As Washington critter numbers in general continue to drop (for so many reasons) and success and access to decent hunting grounds dwindle, I don't really know the right answer for this  .  Out of state hunting opportunities are getting harder and harder with tag number decreases, license prices climbing, and land access getting harder and harder to get.

I have to search down deep to figure out how I feel about that.  I should be ecstatic about it but is it worth it to me to have this and get to hunt out of state only every third year instead of yearly?  Maybe I'm selfish???   I guess if hunting is just time camping in the mountains surrounded by nature, friends, and family with little thought to success and over-crowded hunting opportunities, I guess its ok.  I guess everyone's successful experience is different from another's.  I will have to think about this!!!

[Stein]

That's a pretty honest assessment dvolmer.

I get it, nobody is a big fan of pumpkin patches for sure.  Like many, I literally have nightmares about rolling up to a spot only to find a dozen other trucks already there.

It's pretty much a fact that we can't have both a healthy hunting heritage handed down without having hunters replaced by at least a 1:1 ratio.  Actually it should be higher as the population increases to keep a similar per capita average.  We haven't been doing this as hunter numbers in general have decreased for several decades.  Hunting is declining and this would be the first time this might be either a blip or trend reversal.

I think it's one of those situations where we can focus on the positive.  More hunters is more revenue for game management, more pro-hunting voters and maintaining the heritage for future generations.

[Rob]

Amen!

[Alan K]

The end of hunting comes when the enviro's have successfully introduced and boosted predator populations to the point that ungulate/fish populations can no longer handle the additional take from humans. 

The fervor around eliminating any effective means of predator control has only grown, and I think it's safe to say that will continue to.

First, general hunts will be reduced or even done away with outright, moving to a draw system where hunter numbers, and thus harvest numbers can be limited. Hunters, seeing the decreased populations will accept this since WE are the ones who believe in conservation (not preservation). Then the draw quotas will be reduced since the slack will be picked up by the booming predator populations... And quotas will be reduced.... And reduced some more... The hunting community will continue to shrink and become virtually non existent when it takes years to get an opportunity to hunt. There will be zero new recruitment with such scarcity in opportunity.

Hunting is going away eventually. It's way past the point of the heritage being passed along in any numbers large enough to sustain itself. The only thing keeping it going politically is the generally accepted public sentiment around it. It certainly isn't the hunter votes themselves.

It probably is selfish of me to say that I shrug my shoulders when I hear about hunter recruitment being on a continual slide, but oh well.  I realize that it only accelerates the steps above. Heck, a blind person can see the trajectory we're on with the predator/prey balance, yet the game department continues to expand 'opportunity' in new and longer seasons, additional technological advances OK'd, etc. By the looks of it I think WDFW figures they go ahead and get to the end game so that they have an argument to be funded exclusively from the general fund. Hunters and anglers can't keep that bloated bureaucracy funded anyway.  Without hunters or fishermen, there is nothing to truly manage, they can just let nature do their job for them. Doesn't matter what happens at that point, it's 'natural' therefor okay.

[whacker1]

my only comment to add is that the economy has been healthy for a long period of time, so people have money in their pocket.  This was not the case when we were buying out of state tags in multiple states in the 2009-2016 era.  As the economy has improved, so has spending.   The test will be to see what happens over the next couple of years as we see the impacts of COVID on the economy.  as of right now it hasn't hurt the economy like i had thought it would.

[cougforester]

The end of hunting comes when the enviro's have successfully introduced and boosted predator populations to the point that ungulate/fish populations can no longer handle the additional take from humans. 

The fervor around eliminating any effective means of predator control has only grown, and I think it's safe to say that will continue to.

First, general hunts will be reduced or even done away with outright, moving to a draw system where hunter numbers, and thus harvest numbers can be limited. Hunters, seeing the decreased populations will accept this since WE are the ones who believe in conservation (not preservation). Then the draw quotas will be reduced since the slack will be picked up by the booming predator populations... And quotas will be reduced.... And reduced some more... The hunting community will continue to shrink and become virtually non existent when it takes years to get an opportunity to hunt. There will be zero new recruitment with such scarcity in opportunity.

Hunting is going away eventually. It's way past the point of the heritage being passed along in any numbers large enough to sustain itself. The only thing keeping it going politically is the generally accepted public sentiment around it. It certainly isn't the hunter votes themselves.

It probably is selfish of me to say that I shrug my shoulders when I hear about hunter recruitment being on a continual slide, but oh well.  I realize that it only accelerates the steps above. Heck, a blind person can see the trajectory we're on with the predator/prey balance, yet the game department continues to expand 'opportunity' in new and longer seasons, additional technological advances OK'd, etc. By the looks of it I think WDFW figures they go ahead and get to the end game so that they have an argument to be funded exclusively from the general fund. Hunters and anglers can't keep that bloated bureaucracy funded anyway.  Without hunters or fishermen, there is nothing to truly manage, they can just let nature do their job for them. Doesn't matter what happens at that point, it's 'natural' therefor okay.

Boy,  way to put a  damper on my morning. I'm doing my best to take my buddies hunting who haven't gone before and have been successful getting people hooked. Sure isn't hard to see where we're headed without significant additional recruitment though.