Preference points

[Bob33]

The fact that you only get one number in the draw no matter how many points you have has always burned my butt.

You get the lowest number- and that's the only one that matters. I don't get why people always say this. 

  I think it because they don't know how the system works or completely understand it.

I know exactly how it works. If you have 15 points yet get 15x15 chances at a low number. That's it, your one number counts toward whether you get a tag or not. Guys with 20 points lose to guys with 1 or 2 points every year. It's a random number generator that has no weight towards guys with high number of points. Maybe I should have explained better in my post what part burned my butt.

The person with 20 points has 400 numbers to select the lowest value from. The person with 1 point has one number to select the lowest value from. The person with 20 points is far more likely to get a lower number than the person with 1 point. Yes, a person with one point can be drawn when a person with 20 points is not, but that really doesn't occur very often. It seems like it does because there are thousands of applicants with one point and relatively few with 20 or more.

[Falcon]

The fact that you only get one number in the draw no matter how many points you have has always burned my butt.

You get the lowest number- and that's the only one that matters. I don't get why people always say this. 

  I think it because they don't know how the system works or completely understand it.

I know exactly how it works. If you have 15 points yet get 15x15 chances at a low number. That's it, your one number counts toward whether you get a tag or not. Guys with 20 points lose to guys with 1 or 2 points every year. It's a random number generator that has no weight towards guys with high number of points. Maybe I should have explained better in my post what part burned my butt.

The person with 20 points has 400 numbers to select the lowest value from. The person with 1 point has one number to select the lowest value from. The person with 20 points is far more likely to get a lower number than the person with 1 point. Yes, a person with one point can be drawn when a person with 20 points is not, but that really doesn't occur very often. It seems like it does because there are thousands of applicants with one point and relatively few with 20 or more.


 

Bob is right on this.   Someone please tell me of 1 person in the last 5 years drawing a oil tag with 1 point?
It might be 1 or possibly 2.  Extremely rare.    I have dawn 2 goat tags and moose tag. I have max sheep
Points.  I doubt I will ever draw.  There is simply too many people in
The draw.  Simple as that 

[Rainier10]

Somebody in the last three years drew moose with 1-3 points IIRC.

[Falcon]

I believe you.  My point is it’s pretty rare.   
Anyone who says points don’t matter need to do the math.
Our system isn’t the greatest.   I wish we we had Idaho’s no point and pick
One animal draw system, but we don’t 

[vandeman17]

I believe you.  My point is it’s pretty rare.   
Anyone who says points don’t matter need to do the math.
Our system isn’t the greatest.   I wish we we had Idaho’s no point and pick
One animal draw system, but we don’t 

I think most people understand that more points mean better odds but the important part that people tend to not understand is two fold. First, even with a boat load of points, premiere deer/elk tags and OIL tags have very very very poor odds. Every time I hear someone complain about not drawing because they have 15, 20 25 whatever amount of points and they applied for Entiat quality deer it makes me shake my head. Even with 20 points you still have barely over a 1% chance of drawing that tag. Second, which goes hand in hand with my first point, is that those premiere tags having such low odds meaning that there is a very small increase in chances to draw between 2 points and 18 points. According to gohunt which just uses historical data, two points in Entiat is .01% chance to draw and 18 points is 1%. Hunter A with 2 points and Hunter B with 18 points mathematically speaking still have terrible odds yet Hunter B has a WAY higher probabilty of feeling like he or she deserves to draw because they have so many points. Its a lottery, plain and simple. As soon as we pretty much forget about points and view it like buying a powerball, the better we will all be   

[highside74]

Exactly. 20 points and you are still barely a 1% chance of drawing. That's trash and we all know it. I've drawn a Moose tag, 2 quality elk, 1 bulk elk, 1 quality buck and 1 buck since 2004 when I started putting in for tags. 12 points for Moose was the most I had when I drew. I'm grateful but there are a lot of guys that have been putting in for way longer and haven't even come close to sniffy a tag. Our system is flawed but I think they arwbto far down the rabbit hole to fix it now.

[Bob33]

I believe you.  My point is it’s pretty rare.   
Anyone who says points don’t matter need to do the math.
Our system isn’t the greatest.   I wish we we had Idaho’s no point and pick
One animal draw system, but we don’t 

I think most people understand that more points mean better odds but the important part that people tend to not understand is two fold. First, even with a boat load of points, premiere deer/elk tags and OIL tags have very very very poor odds. Every time I hear someone complain about not drawing because they have 15, 20 25 whatever amount of points and they applied for Entiat quality deer it makes me shake my head. Even with 20 points you still have barely over a 1% chance of drawing that tag. Second, which goes hand in hand with my first point, is that those premiere tags having such low odds meaning that there is a very small increase in chances to draw between 2 points and 18 points. According to gohunt which just uses historical data, two points in Entiat is .01% chance to draw and 18 points is 1%. Hunter A with 2 points and Hunter B with 18 points mathematically speaking still have terrible odds yet Hunter B has a WAY higher probabilty of feeling like he or she deserves to draw because they have so many points. Its a lottery, plain and simple. As soon as we pretty much forget about points and view it like buying a powerball, the better we will all be 

Points do change the odds. In your example of two applicants, the one with 18 points has a 100 fold better chance than the applicant with two points. I would rather have a 1 in 100 chance rather than a 1 in 10,000 chance. I do understand your point that both have poor odds.

[vandeman17]

I believe you.  My point is it’s pretty rare.   
Anyone who says points don’t matter need to do the math.
Our system isn’t the greatest.   I wish we we had Idaho’s no point and pick
One animal draw system, but we don’t 

I think most people understand that more points mean better odds but the important part that people tend to not understand is two fold. First, even with a boat load of points, premiere deer/elk tags and OIL tags have very very very poor odds. Every time I hear someone complain about not drawing because they have 15, 20 25 whatever amount of points and they applied for Entiat quality deer it makes me shake my head. Even with 20 points you still have barely over a 1% chance of drawing that tag. Second, which goes hand in hand with my first point, is that those premiere tags having such low odds meaning that there is a very small increase in chances to draw between 2 points and 18 points. According to gohunt which just uses historical data, two points in Entiat is .01% chance to draw and 18 points is 1%. Hunter A with 2 points and Hunter B with 18 points mathematically speaking still have terrible odds yet Hunter B has a WAY higher probabilty of feeling like he or she deserves to draw because they have so many points. Its a lottery, plain and simple. As soon as we pretty much forget about points and view it like buying a powerball, the better we will all be 

Points do change the odds. In your example of two applicants, the one with 18 points has a 100 fold better chance than the applicant with two points. I would rather have a 1 in 100 chance rather than a 1 in 10,000 chance. I do understand your point that both have poor odds.

Yep but the 18 point holder tends to feel like they deserve the tag because of their points.

[huntandjeep]

 the great point split disaster of 2010.

I Lost 10 Goat and Ram points in that debacle .

[time2hunt]

It’s all a crap shoot and dumb luck.


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[sagerat]

Exactly. 20 points and you are still barely a 1% chance of drawing. That's trash and we all know it. I've drawn a Moose tag, 2 quality elk, 1 bulk elk, 1 quality buck and 1 buck since 2004 when I started putting in for tags. 12 points for Moose was the most I had when I drew. I'm grateful but there are a lot of guys that have been putting in for way longer and haven't even come close to sniffy a tag. Our system is flawed but I think they arwbto far down the rabbit hole to fix it now.

Only flaw I see is allowing guys to apply for everything and having multiple categories for each species. The fact is most people will never draw the premium tags no matter how many points they have. There’s isn’t enough tags to go around plain and simple. At least they aren’t charging $100 for the semi useless points, yet…

[WAcoueshunter]

This is just nuts.  People complaining about how the guy with 20 points can't draw, so let's go to the Idaho system.  Really?  Let's make the guy who's applied for 20 years have the same odds as the guy who passed hunter ed last week? 

Lots of benefits to a system with no points, but rewarding the people who have applied and not drawn for a long time is not one. 

[KNOPHISH]

I’d go for an app fee increase if you could only put in for 1 species, with no ghost points in the others you don’t apply for. I think that could help a little for the odds and high point holders. I’m a max pointer for all oil but that’s not counting the years I applied before points.

[huntnphool]

 For those of us hunting back then, the system was initiated due to the harsh winter….according to WDFW.

 Why wasn’t the system removed once the herds rebounded from the harsh winter?

[Stein]

Points aren't to reward people, they are designed to keep them playing the game every year.  Given the bleak tag numbers, how many people would stop applying if there were no points and just a random draw?  Having X points drives people to keep playing year after year because they have sunk costs and are lead to believe they are close to drawing because they are due.