Cubing points

[vandeman17]

Since I have 18+ points in most categories, I like that they square points.
However, if I ever draw and have to start back at 0 the following year, I doubt I'll buy applications for that type of hunt again.
Even after 5 years of applying, you'd only have your name in the hat 25 times and would be up against hundreds of other hunters with 20+ points equalling 400+ entries each in the draw.
No thanks!

Points are simply nothing more than a revenue generator; whether you have 1 point or 10 you’re only getting one name in the hat. They square you points and give you a hundred different numbers they take that lowest number from that and that is your chance to draw. If the number is lower than everyone else’s then you draw that hunt. Numbers are based off 0-infinity and are completely random.

  Who cares about points, its all random. Just apply for the hunt you want, no matter the draw odds and treat it as nothing more than a lottery.

[bobcat]

Points are simply nothing more than a revenue generator; whether you have 1 point or 10 you’re only getting one name in the hat. They square you points and give you a hundred different numbers they take that lowest number from that and that is your chance to draw. If the number is lower than everyone else’s then you draw that hunt. Numbers are based off 0-infinity and are completely random.

That's not correct. More points does equal "more names in the hat."

I still agree that point systems are stupid and simply a way for the state to make more money.

But the fact is more points does give you better odds of drawing.

[hughjorgan]

Points are simply nothing more than a revenue generator; whether you have 1 point or 10 you’re only getting one name in the hat. They square you points and give you a hundred different numbers they take that lowest number from that and that is your chance to draw. If the number is lower than everyone else’s then you draw that hunt. Numbers are based off 0-infinity and are completely random.

That's not correct. More points does equal "more names in the hat."

I still agree that point systems are stupid and simply a way for the state to make more money.

But the fact is more points does give you better odds of drawing.

You have better odds of drawing a low number, yes but you only have one number in the hat.

[bobcat]

Points are simply nothing more than a revenue generator; whether you have 1 point or 10 you’re only getting one name in the hat. They square you points and give you a hundred different numbers they take that lowest number from that and that is your chance to draw. If the number is lower than everyone else’s then you draw that hunt. Numbers are based off 0-infinity and are completely random.

That's not correct. More points does equal "more names in the hat."

I still agree that point systems are stupid and simply a way for the state to make more money.

But the fact is more points does give you better odds of drawing.

You have better odds of drawing a low number, yes but you only have one number in the hat.

The low number is the only one that matters. If you got 100 numbers you have 100 times the chance of drawing as someone with only 1 number.

[Ghost Hunter]

And an infinite number of chances to draw a higher number.  Better odds to win or lose.

[hughjorgan]

Points are simply nothing more than a revenue generator; whether you have 1 point or 10 you’re only getting one name in the hat. They square you points and give you a hundred different numbers they take that lowest number from that and that is your chance to draw. If the number is lower than everyone else’s then you draw that hunt. Numbers are based off 0-infinity and are completely random.

That's not correct. More points does equal "more names in the hat."

I still agree that point systems are stupid and simply a way for the state to make more money.

But the fact is more points does give you better odds of drawing.

You have better odds of drawing a low number, yes but you only have one number in the hat.

The low number is the only one that matters. If you got 100 numbers you have 100 times the chance of drawing as someone with only 1 number.

The other 99 are not in the draw just your lowest number of the 100.

[Timber]

Points are simply nothing more than a revenue generator; whether you have 1 point or 10 you’re only getting one name in the hat. They square you points and give you a hundred different numbers they take that lowest number from that and that is your chance to draw. If the number is lower than everyone else’s then you draw that hunt. Numbers are based off 0-infinity and are completely random.

That's not correct. More points does equal "more names in the hat."

I still agree that point systems are stupid and simply a way for the state to make more money.

But the fact is more points does give you better odds of drawing.

You have better odds of drawing a low number, yes but you only have one number in the hat.

Having better odds of drawing a low number is all that matters. Once everyone gets their number the draw is over. Nothing goes into a "hat" to be drawn again.

[vandeman17]

so I have a .045% chance with 20 points instead of a .023% chance with 5 points. Are my odds "better", sure they are but do I feel like I "should" draw because I have a ton of points, nope. I would wager a guess that for every couple 20+ point holders who draw a tag, there are 1-2 that draw with 5 or less points. In my mind, that makes it random when thinking logically. 

[Ridgerunner]

The problem is we were told when the system started was that by squaring our points the odds of drawing would increase, in our minds that increase is much more than what it really is.  It does increase very slightly the odds of pulling a low number which is what counts in this state.  At the time the point system was put into place, very few people compared to now were putting in for these tags.  Once people thought they were going to lose out on something(gaining points) sales took off, not to mention the internet showcasing all these great animals taken on these tags. 

What I'd like to see in WA is for OIL and Quality tags go to a modified draw where 75% of the tags for a given hunt go to those who have higher points, i.e. 15 or greater, and 25% of the tags be earmarked for those that have less than 15 points or random.  Those who have been applying for a long time should have hopefully slightly higher odds and those who are lower in the point range will still have a chance.

[dagon]

I've been trying to figure the actual odds of drawing a lower number based on the number of try's (points) I thought I was pretty good at math and I'm only using two people. First one with 1 point. Second with 10 points (100 trys). I don't know if this is possible with a random number generator. This is not nearly as complicated as any of the actual Washington state draws. Are there any math wizards out there?

[trophyhunt]

I've been trying to figure the actual odds of drawing a lower number based on the number of try's (points) I thought I was pretty good at math and I'm only using two people. First one with 1 point. Second with 10 points (100 trys). I don't know if this is possible with a random number generator. This is not nearly as complicated as any of the actual Washington state draws. Are there any math wizards out there?

Ridgerunner is the rain man.   I don't get how some of you guys think cubing wouldn't increase odds?  I'm NOT a points fan the way wdfw currently has it set up, I'd like to see wdfw quit giving points and go to a system like Idaho.  But it won't, so Ridgerunners idea is more realistic, more like Wyomings system.  Brian, pick a popular unit for elk, like the colockum late rife, 11 tags average 3650 applications.  How much better would the odds be for a guy with 19 points squared (361 chances to get a low number) to a guy with 20 points cubed (8,000 chances to get a low number)?  Cubing isn't the best answer to our points mess, but I believe it gives the higher points guys a better chance.  And no, I'm not saying I deserve a tag.... but after 29 years without poacher points, I do think odds should be much better for higher point holders to draw.  And yes, I am doing this torture to myself by looking for premium tags, but not as premium as rifle rut hunts with 1 or 2 tags, one of the tags I've been after for many years has less than 1,000 applicants. 

[dagon]

Thanks trophy hunt. I agree that a change would help. I like the Wyoming system myself. That said I really am just asking a straight up math question. Forget our system for the moment. I mean we all know if you have a 100 compared to 1 chances to get a lower number your odds are gonna be better. Can someone show the math that says how much better? 

[trophyhunt]

#ridgerunner or @Ridgerunner

[Ridgerunner]

That’s some heavy math you want done Jerry. 

The reality of the situation is that the WA points system works as intended when there are enough permits offered to allow the system to work as intended.  If one were to look back at the distribution of tags under Palouse buck when there were 600 tags you would see it how it was intended to work. 

The problem is so many hunts have so few permits and so many people applying with all the random numbers that you won’t get a distribution of tags that reflect those who have been putting in longer pulling more tags. So it does become more an issue of luck and getting a low number.  That’s why a guy drew the butte with 3 points while thousands of applicants with 20plus didn’t draw.

In the end you really can’t count on your points to do much for you luck is a bigger factor imo.


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[trophyhunt]

That’s some heavy math you want done Jerry. 

The reality of the situation is that the WA points system works as intended when there are enough permits offered to allow the system to work as intended.  If one were to look back at the distribution of tags under Palouse buck when there were 600 tags you would see it how it was intended to work. 

The problem is so many hunts have so few permits and so many people applying with all the random numbers that you won’t get a distribution of tags that reflect those who have been putting in longer pulling more tags. So it does become more an issue of luck and getting a low number.  That’s why a guy drew the butte with 3 points while thousands of applicants with 20plus didn’t draw.

In the end you really can’t count on your points to do much for you luck is a bigger factor imo.


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surely you have nothing to do for the next 3 hours to figure out those odds!!!!      😁