Some quality hunts, the real numbers of guys in the hat! Shocking!

[bobcat]

It would be better without the points squared.

Better for who?

[fishngamereaper]

As good or bad as the whole system may be Ive been playing the odds for 16 years and will continue to do so. Its the only way I will ever be able to afford to harvest a Sheep or Goat. Even if I saved all of my application fees I still wouldnt be able to afford an out of state hunt for any of the OIL tag animals in WA.

[dreamingbig]

It would be better without the points squared.

Better for who?

Everyone!  Right now you are losing ground to the field even with max points.  Statistics don't lie.  Why is it so hard to understand?

[billdo5]

silly do the math... If u have 3 points = 9 and if i have 2 points= 4....  That is 9/13 for you... (69.2%) and for me 4/13 (30.7%)... You have better odds with the system as it is...  If you take the points and dont square them it bumbs your percentage down to 60% (3/5) and mine would bump up to 40% (2/5)... So you are completely wrong it would get worse for the people with higher points

[billdo5]

 

[snowpack]

It would be better without the points squared.

Better for who?

Everyone!  Right now you are losing ground to the field even with max points.  Statistics don't lie.  Why is it so hard to understand?

  Your odds should keep going down faster because all the other people that also have high points are being squared, so the total of possible selectees goes up (the pool keeps getting bigger). 

[jackmaster]

take away the multiple choice, only allow a person to put in for one place, you could increase youth tags and senior and disabled tags as well and it would give the guys that want to hunt the oil hunt alot better shot at it before they are to damn old to wipe their own arse, its that simple, there are bigger fish to fry, not trying to go off topic but if we dont do somethn about predation then we wont be putting in for permits for to much longer or the number of permits are gonna be a hell of alot lower than they already are. cats and wolves need a serious overhaul especially for you blues guys and us wetside hunters when it comes to cats, and from the sounds of it the wetsiders arent to far from having wolf issues either

[steeleywhopper]

take away the multiple choice, only allow a person to put in for one place, you could increase youth tags and senior and disabled tags as well and it would give the guys that want to hunt the oil hunt alot better shot at it before they are to damn old to wipe their own arse, its that simple, there are bigger fish to fry, not trying to go off topic but if we dont do somethn about predation then we wont be putting in for permits for to much longer or the number of permits are gonna be a hell of alot lower than they already are. cats and wolves need a serious overhaul especially for you blues guys and us wetside hunters when it comes to cats, and from the sounds of it the wetsiders arent to far from having wolf issues either

I say go back to the old days. Example..If you put in for a special permit you don't get to hunt on opening day (Saturday) , you have to wait till Monday to hunt. You only get one choice in each category. I know it will never happen due to the monies it would cut out of the Democraps pockets, but all I have left is a crumb of hope I will draw and the right to bear arms!

[Alan K]

As has been pointed out, Washington’s bonus point system squares the bonus points for applicants which should lead to improved draw odds.

However, analysis has shown that the overall odds of drawing a quality permit are, for the most part, decreasing each year for those with high bonus point counts. Someone with 15 bonus points this year will have 16 bonus points next year, but his odds of drawing a Quality or OIL permit with 16 points next year will probably be worse than drawing a permit this year with 15.

That is because of the large mass of applicants with fewer points that also move up. Take the hunter with 15 points: he has 225 “names in the hat”. Next year he will have 256 names in the hat: 31 more chances to draw. However, assume there are 50 applicants with five points this year. They each have 25 names in the hat for a total of 1,250. Next year, each will have 36 names in the hat: a total of 1,800, so overall odds of the applicant with 16 points will be worse.

As the bell curve bulge moves to the right, draw odds will flatten, decreasing the odds for those at the upper end of drawing.

Therefore, while odds increase each year relative to those with fewer points, the actual odds of drawing are probably worsening for many.

There is no way around this: Washington has many hunters vying for a small quantity of quality permits. While some improvement could be made, no draw system can change those two factors.

That right there is it.  Sure, your odds are going down, but everyone's odds are.  That's the nature of a system where everyone has a chance to draw.  The number of people applying is increasing, so everyone odds go down.  Even in a system that was 100% random, the odds of drawing would be going down assuming the same people keep applying, and new applicant's join in each year.  Only difference with ours is that the longer you've put in, the better your odds relative to those who have applied for a shorter period of time. 

I think our system is the best around.  Only thing I'd do is increase the hunt choices by adding 1 rut hunt permits for every GMU in the state that holds deer or elk, and limit hunt choices to 1.  Spread the people out across more hunt choices, and limiting everyone to their top choice would do wonders for odds.

[danderson]

  I think our current system if I was grading it would get a C, everyone has a fair chance of drawing a specail permit, however there's a few things I would like to see change in the way the program works, first off there's a growing number of sportsmen in this state that have high point totals for specail permits and due to issues like failing health are no longer able to hunt, I would like to see a feature that for lack of a better word cashes out ones point total sort of rewards our senior sportsmen for a lifetime of applying, a good example is a friend of mine turned 70 last year and he has 16 points for sheep, goat, moose and quality bull, with a cash out program after the first few years we will see the odds increase significantly

[billdo5]

does he still put in?

[danderson]

Yes hes still puts in, I keep telling him not to give up, now hes to the point were if he draws one he will have to have lots of support from friends and family.