Goat Tag Raffle - Flooded

[RadSav]

The reality is so sad it is sort of comical.  The mind is 21, the spirit is 31 and the body shows 41 years of abuse.

[coachcw]

Totally nothing negative meant by it .... Allen Is a good dude .I met him years ago up in Bc hunting .He is a happy go lucky guy . He has done really well for him self and the sport . I just meant I don't see him as a guy that's gonna be climbing around goat country . I'm not a guy thats gonna be either for that matter but I'm dumb enough to try. That's all I meant . When we see a name ( like  Allen ) people speculate on who . I was just saying I donT believe its that allen. Goat hunting is a young mans sport . I know rumors start pretty quick hell I'm some guide for a guy I don't even know. Good luck on drawing the tag you wont get much competition from me on it .

[Gringo31]

Appears to have updated....

[Skillet]

1883 tix sold as of now.

[PlateauNDN]

Totally nothing negative meant by it .... Allen Is a good dude .I met him years ago up in Bc hunting .He is a happy go lucky guy . He has done really well for him self and the sport . I just meant I don't see him as a guy that's gonna be climbing around goat country . I'm not a guy thats gonna be either for that matter but I'm dumb enough to try. That's all I meant . When we see a name ( like  Allen ) people speculate on who . I was just saying I donT believe its that allen. Goat hunting is a young mans sport . I know rumors start pretty quick hell I'm some guide for a guy I don't even know. Good luck on drawing the tag you wont get much competition from me on it .

Young man's sport? What happens if I draw again who am I gonna call to help me pack another one off the mountain??? Karl??? Come on, I at least want to look exhausted like the next  guy not look like I'm dying from a heart attack with karl running around like a goat not breaking a sweat.

[PlateauNDN]

I think part of it is the DIY. I'd much rather go do it on my own and get it done myself then pay a guide to show me. Even if it ends up costing the same.

This is my take from hunting. I've hunted so long by myself it's a new adventure sharing it with other like minded folks. I wanted my goat hunt to be memorable and I really wanted to prove to myself that I could get it done myself. I treasure the adventure, the hunt, the pursuit, not the kill.

[Rainier10]

1883 tix sold as of now.

A little quick math and figuring this thread sparked some sales outside of his I would say he spent $10k on tickets, still cheaper than the price of the auction tag just a little riskier.

[shanevg]

1883 tix sold as of now.

A little quick math and figuring this thread sparked some sales outside of his I would say he spent $10k on tickets, still cheaper than the price of the auction tag just a little riskier.

Auction tag went for $34k this year and $27k last year.

[Rainier10]

1883 tix sold as of now.

A little quick math and figuring this thread sparked some sales outside of his I would say he spent $10k on tickets, still cheaper than the price of the auction tag just a little riskier.

Auction tag went for $34k this year and $27k last year.

Exactly.  I don't think he wants to spend that much or he would have just bought the auction tag and been guaranteed to win.  Right now he has 1666 of the 1883 tickets.  My guess is if sales go like they normally do he will still have at least half of the tickets giving him a 50/50 shot at winning.  If he doesn't win he is out the $10k and would have to try again next year.  If he loses again the $30k to just buy the auction tag starts looking good.

This is quite the gamble and should be fun to watch.  It is like standing behind the guy at the $5k minimum blackjack table.

I hope it works out.

[jkthomps]

July 15th is a long ways away.

[RadSav]

Appears to have updated....

It has updated on Mondays for as long as I have paid attention.  Would be nice if it updated daily, but I assume that would raise the price of tickets or decrease revenue.

1883 tix sold as of now.

That is still below the annual average.  But I do think it is high for this early in raffle purchases.  If I remember right we didn't see it break 1500 last year until after permit app results were posted.  Maybe we will break the 2009 record!

[Bob33]

Appears to have updated....

It has updated on Mondays for as long as I have paid attention.  Would be nice if it updated daily, but I assume that would raise the price of tickets or decrease revenue.

1883 tix sold as of now.

That is still below the annual average.  But I do think it is high for this early in raffle purchases.  If I remember right we didn't see it break 1500 last year until after permit app results were posted.  Maybe we will break the 2009 record!

In 2015 2,354 tickets were sold.

In 2014 3,150 tickets were sold.

http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/permits/raffles/big_game_raffle_ticket_sales.pdf

[JoeE]

So who's going to offer up their spare bedroom to rent out to Bushcraft when he doesn't win and his wife boots him out for dropping 10k for nothing?? J/K I hope you win it Bushcraft, you are a lot braver than I am!

[Bushcraft]

Appears to have updated....

It has updated on Mondays for as long as I have paid attention.  Would be nice if it updated daily, but I assume that would raise the price of tickets or decrease revenue.

1883 tix sold as of now.

That is still below the annual average.  But I do think it is high for this early in raffle purchases.  If I remember right we didn't see it break 1500 last year until after permit app results were posted.  Maybe we will break the 2009 record!

Among other last minute odd-destroying flood fiascos, the 2009 "record" with multiple people piling in unbeknownst to one another (thereby screwing each of their respective odds) is precisely what I was hoping to avoid with my early courtesy announcement.

There is no good defendable reason in this day and age that the raffle ticket numbers can't be updated in real time.  Perhaps WDFW does it this way to try and make more money off everyone on the raffles by under-representing the actual odds.  Of course, Lady Luck will have the final say, but someone will have to dig deep and check their sanity in order for them to obtain an 85% chance (even more if I use the reserve set aside). If someone else spoke up early, I wouldn't have tried.  No way would I take those poor odds.  It would be far easier and a 100% certainty to just call Bolen Lewis or Milligan and go after a giant world class billy with some good guys.

On a somewhat related note, the moose odds appear to be the easiest/best option to flood at this point, particularly since there are two tags at play in the same raffle. If I weren't completely bonkers for a goat right now, I'd be hammering that moose raffle since I know where a great Shiras bull likes to hang out. He's bound to be bigger this year unless the wolves got him.

[Rainier10]

There are a bunch of good raffles that still have low sales compared to what is typically sold but there is a ton of time left to buy them.  I am sure you are going to see numbers start jumping the first week of July as guys start positioning themselves in the categories that have the best odds.

My guess is we are going to see the highest raffle ticket sales this year.  Going to be interesting to watch the numbers jump.