Goat Tag Raffle - Flooded

[Rainier10]

Apparently I've been runner up three times.  What do you think the odds are for that?   Buying more just makes me a first place loser!

That would be a long shot trifecta of epic proportions!  Is that true?

[Bushcraft]

It looks like they fixed the raffle count.

[RadSav]

Apparently I've been runner up three times.  What do you think the odds are for that?   Buying more just makes me a first place loser!

That would be a long shot trifecta of epic proportions!  Is that true?

If the letters they sent were accurate it is.  Though it could have been someone at WDFW that just hates me   Not consecutive years.

[jackelope]

I think it's important to know.


Perfect example.  I was looking at them yesterday.  The SE option had 222 permits sold so far.  While I've never purchased a ticket, I was tempted.  If that number is 2000, I'm out.   

Exactly.

I think it would be financially better for the state if they didn't show the count at all. Maybe more folks would participate.  I would if I couldn't see that someone just dumped $10k into it. Why would I bother spending my measly $100 if I could tell that someone has already put 100x that amount into the pot?

[Bushcraft]

I think it's important to know.


Perfect example.  I was looking at them yesterday.  The SE option had 222 permits sold so far.  While I've never purchased a ticket, I was tempted.  If that number is 2000, I'm out.   

Exactly.

I think it would be financially better for the state if they didn't show the count at all. Maybe more folks would participate.  I would if I couldn't see that someone just dumped $10k into it. Why would I bother spending my measly $100 if I could tell that someone has already put 100x that amount into the pot?

I'm not so sure the state would make more money unless they changed a few things.  The problem with regard to making more money has everything to do with raising more awareness and increasing the ease of actually buying something.

In the case of special permits, everyone can easily buy them online when they buy their license and tags.  Conversely, due to state gambling laws WDFW forces people to go to an accredited point of sale to buy raffle tags…and do so in person.  Why they consider the special permit not gambling and raffle tags as a form of gambling that needs to be regulated is beyond me but probably relates to the lack of limitation imposed on the number of the latter. Most people are inherently lazy and procrastinate (myself included!), which means a good sized percentage of people that might buy raffle tags don't simply because a) they aren't aware of it to begin with, B) don’t understand the shifting odds, C) are too lazy to go buy one and/or procrastinate and miss the deadline.

Then, there is the aspect of odds.  One can easily review the odds of the special permit in the game regs, both online and in the paper regs.  The same isn't necessarily true with the raffle tags since those figures are only available if one wants to dig around online.  In either case, the purchase of 1 permit or 1 raffle tag results in the odds of winning being essentially zero.

Buying special permit apps is looked upon by most people as just something one does knowing A) they have to do so if they want to continue to build points which supposedly increases one's odds, and B) that lightning might strike and they'll win an opportunity to hunt in a particular unit.  Conversely, there is no build-up of points with the raffle...one increases their odds simply by buying more raffle tickets...but they have to be committed to shelling out some serious dough and buying a lot of them to get a meaningfully high enough chance of drawing (let's say 85% for example).  I suspect that the people that want to be reasonably confident of owning at least 85% of the raffle tickets going into the draw deadline simply aren't going to participate without knowing the odds at any significant level for the simple reason that it could quickly become FAR, FAR more expensive to reach 85% compared to simply just buying the Governor's tag or a B.C. goat hunt outright.  I know I certainly wouldn't.  And, nearly everyone I've spoken with that's tried this strategy successfully (and not) feels more or less the exact same way. 

There is a lottery-type of gambling (which I almost never do since I philosophically view public lotteries as an egregious tax on the poor and the stupid) and then there is another type that is more akin to taking a highly calculated risk (which I've strived to do all my life).

The bottom line is that it's anybody's guess as to which would make more money for the state (which I'm not sure is necessarily a good thing since private orgs could be more effective in many respects), but it's something interesting to discuss.

[Whitenuckles]

I've never heard of a black goat. Anyone got pics?


Good luck! Keep us posted!

[Gringo31]

I've never heard of a black goat. Anyone got pics?

Drive to Sunnyside

[carpsniperg2]

 

[Blacktail135]

 I know a dude  that MAY have bought 777 Goat raffle tickets a few years ago (a year when 2 tags were available). HE  said that when the drawing results were finally posted (he said that the drawing results were about a month later than first scheduled  ) he was in 7th place on the list. Go figure! Oh well HE  once swung for the fence in the majors.   

[JoeE]

So who's heading over their local license dealer and throwing some money at raffles now that they didn't draw that OIL tag? I know I am.

[Cat hunter]

So who's heading over their local license dealer and throwing some money at raffles now that they didn't draw that OIL tag? I know I am.

likewise 

[X-Force]

I need 10 tickets..... 

[Gringo31]

It's not showing (for me) the number of tickets purchased 

[benhuntin]

I don't see it either. 🙄


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[USMC86]

For what it's worth, there is value in buying a raffle ticket beyond the hunt itself.  For me, dreaming/thinking/planning/scheming about these hunts is almost as much fun as doing it.  Well, maybe not almost, but it still is pretty fun.  At any rate, application season is a fun time for me...basically it starts in December with the limited draw sheep units in Alaska and ends late in the summer after all the draw results have been posted.  And every time I buy one of those stupid tickets or put in the application, I'm buying a little hope.  Deep down, I know I probably won't draw a super-premium tag this year, but it's still fun to dream! Let the snarky comments begin!