how to fix WA. OIL draw system

[WAcoueshunter]

Pretty sure that by mirroring Idaho's draw system there would be no "losers" and that everybody would be happier with odds and results.

No losers? How about everyone with a lot of points?

I say, leave the system alone. There are too many people and not enough tags. Any change will just be favoring one group over another.

Exactly.  How about the guy sitting on max in moose and quality elk.  What does he do if he has to choose between applying between OIL and non-OIL?  His overall odds of drawing a premium tag in any given year diminishes significantly if everyone has to choose one or the other.

[WAcoueshunter]

It's lotto for hunters. Play or don't play.

Exactly right!  And, too many mathematically challenged people believe they WILL win the lottery eventually!  Play it for fun, enjoy it if you win, but expecting to win (draw) is a cruel illusion unsupportable by fact.

Maybe they should change the name of it, from "draw" to "lottery".  Seriously, might help change peoples expectations to bring them more in line with reality.  I don't post one of these  every time my powerball number doesn't come up. 

[shanevg]

Pretty sure that by mirroring Idaho's draw system there would be no "losers" and that everybody would be happier with odds and results.

No losers? How about everyone with a lot of points?

I say, leave the system alone. There are too many people and not enough tags. Any change will just be favoring one group over another.

Exactly.  How about the guy sitting on max in moose and quality elk.  What does he do if he has to choose between applying between OIL and non-OIL?  His overall odds of drawing a premium tag in any given year diminishes significantly if everyone has to choose one or the other.

That's where you are completely wrong. If you have to choose only one option, your odds of drawing that one option will be roughly 5x higher than drawing any of 5 options. Basically what Pope's proposal would do is change the system from giving you 1/100 odds of drawing 1 of 5 possible quality tag to 1/20 odds of drawing a single quality tag. Every single hunter should want those improved odds. It is a true win win for everyone.

Also for everyone saying quit complaining about the system I ask why?  Why would we not try to make changes that are literally beneficial for every single person? 

To make it is simplistic as possible I would ask everyone to choose between one of the following 2 options.
1. 1:100 odds of drawing a single "quality" tag and also 1:1000 odds of drawing multiple "quality" tags.
Or
2. 1:20 odds of drawing a single quality tag (species of your choice) and no odds of multiple quality tags.

I can't see any reason why any logical person would not choose option 2.

[X-Force]

 

[huntnphool]

Pretty sure that by mirroring Idaho's draw system there would be no "losers" and that everybody would be happier with odds and results.

No losers? How about everyone with a lot of points?

I say, leave the system alone. There are too many people and not enough tags. Any change will just be favoring one group over another.

Exactly.  How about the guy sitting on max in moose and quality elk.  What does he do if he has to choose between applying between OIL and non-OIL?  His overall odds of drawing a premium tag in any given year diminishes significantly if everyone has to choose one or the other.

That's where you are completely wrong. If you have to choose only one option, your odds of drawing that one option will be roughly 5x higher than drawing any of 5 options. Basically what Pope's proposal would do is change the system from giving you 1/100 odds of drawing 1 of 5 possible quality tag to 1/20 odds of drawing a single quality tag. Every single hunter should want those improved odds. It is a true win win for everyone.

Also for everyone saying quit complaining about the system I ask why?  Why would we not try to make changes that are literally beneficial for every single person? 

To make it is simplistic as possible I would ask everyone to choose between one of the following 2 options.
1. 1:100 odds of drawing a single "quality" tag and also 1:1000 odds of drawing multiple "quality" tags.
Or
2. 1:20 odds of drawing a single quality tag (species of your choice) and no odds of multiple quality tags.

I can't see any reason why any logical person would not choose option 2.

 Can you explain how you came up with those numbers please?

[LabChamp]

I completely agree and like the Idaho system but I would like to go to a hybrid system where we have to choose one but keep the point system going as well

[BULLBLASTER]

Pretty sure that by mirroring Idaho's draw system there would be no "losers" and that everybody would be happier with odds and results.

No losers? How about everyone with a lot of points?

I say, leave the system alone. There are too many people and not enough tags. Any change will just be favoring one group over another.

Exactly.  How about the guy sitting on max in moose and quality elk.  What does he do if he has to choose between applying between OIL and non-OIL?  His overall odds of drawing a premium tag in any given year diminishes significantly if everyone has to choose one or the other.

That's where you are completely wrong. If you have to choose only one option, your odds of drawing that one option will be roughly 5x higher than drawing any of 5 options. Basically what Pope's proposal would do is change the system from giving you 1/100 odds of drawing 1 of 5 possible quality tag to 1/20 odds of drawing a single quality tag. Every single hunter should want those improved odds. It is a true win win for everyone.

Also for everyone saying quit complaining about the system I ask why?  Why would we not try to make changes that are literally beneficial for every single person? 

To make it is simplistic as possible I would ask everyone to choose between one of the following 2 options.
1. 1:100 odds of drawing a single "quality" tag and also 1:1000 odds of drawing multiple "quality" tags.
Or
2. 1:20 odds of drawing a single quality tag (species of your choice) and no odds of multiple quality tags.

I can't see any reason why any logical person would not choose option 2.

   

[WAcoueshunter]

That's where you are completely wrong. If you have to choose only one option, your odds of drawing that one option will be roughly 5x higher than drawing any of 5 options. Basically what Pope's proposal would do is change the system from giving you 1/100 odds of drawing 1 of 5 possible quality tag to 1/20 odds of drawing a single quality tag. Every single hunter should want those improved odds. It is a true win win for everyone.

No offense man, but those are the exact same odds.  1/100 five times is the same as 1/20 one time.  Yes, if you only want a goat tag, your odds just went from 1/100 to 1/20.  But for those that just want a quality hunt and are not so single species focused, they lose out by not building points across all the species. 

Do the math - same number of hunters, same number of tags, no possible way for overall odds of drawing a quality tag to change.  It just makes you focus your chances in one species versus the others. 

[LabChamp]

Not really... You start of each draw at 1/100. This is where people don't get how statistics work gambling wise and why people loose so much money bc they believe if they COMBINE their different draws/lotteries that they have better odds. You dont. Is still 1/100 no matter how you twist it. So I can twist it this way for you too.... so you understand. You have 1/100 for each
Goat 1/100
Sheep 1/100
Moose 1/100
Your odds are 3/300

You can't make those other two groups of people disappear bc you want better odds on your end. They were all still in the draw and thats the reason not many of us get drawn, and why everyone is so upset with the system. When the math is done correctly we all have horrible odds here in WA. Sucks for all of us.

Only way to better your odds is decrease the applicants

[Stein]

Wow, lots of math problems here.

Say you buy 5 Poweball tickets?  Do you have 5x the chance of winning? Yes.  Are you going to win?  No.

[BULLBLASTER]

Wow, lots of math problems here.

Say you buy 5 Poweball tickets?  Do you have 5x the chance of winning? Yes.  Are you going to win?  No.

What about if you have max points in the powerball category? Does that help any?

[WAcoueshunter]

Not really... You start of each draw at 1/100. This is where people don't get how statistics work gambling wise and why people loose so much money bc they believe if they COMBINE their different draws/lotteries that they have better odds. You dont. Is still 1/100 no matter how you twist it. So I can twist it this way for you too.... so you understand. You have 1/100 for each
Goat 1/100
Sheep 1/100
Moose 1/100
Your odds are 3/300

You can't make those other two groups of people disappear bc you want better odds on your end. They were all still in the draw and thats the reason not many of us get drawn, and why everyone is so upset with the system. When the math is done correctly we all have horrible odds here in WA. Sucks for all of us.

Only way to better your odds is decrease the applicants

Sorry, just not the way you add probabilities.  Here's a pretty basic explanation that spells it out:

http://www.ehow.com/how_8087361_add-probabilities.html

If you want to make it super simple, your odds of flipping heads (versus tails) is 1:2.  Agreed?  If you flip 1,000 pennies at the same time, your odds of pulling heads in just one of those thousand "draws" is not 1,000/2,000.

[X-Force]

That's where you are completely wrong. If you have to choose only one option, your odds of drawing that one option will be roughly 5x higher than drawing any of 5 options. Basically what Pope's proposal would do is change the system from giving you 1/100 odds of drawing 1 of 5 possible quality tag to 1/20 odds of drawing a single quality tag. Every single hunter should want those improved odds. It is a true win win for everyone.

No offense man, but those are the exact same odds.  1/100 five times is the same as 1/20 one time.  Yes, if you only want a goat tag, your odds just went from 1/100 to 1/20.  But for those that just want a quality hunt and are not so single species focused, they lose out by not building points across all the species. 

Do the math - same number of hunters, same number of tags, no possible way for overall odds of drawing a quality tag to change.  It just makes you focus your chances in one species versus the others.

So the question is is it more important to have mediocre odds across every categories and species or to be able to focus on 1 or 2 permits and have basically guaranteed odds of antlerless hunts or highly improved odds of that 1 or 2 quality hunts.

[BULLBLASTER]

The 5 times with a probability of 1:100 are not connected at all. You still only have a 1:100 chance to win anything. If those 100 people could only apply in one of the 5 and evenly distributed you would have 1 tag for 20 apps. Therefore a drastic increase in odds

[LabChamp]

The 5 times with a probability of 1:100 are not connected at all. You still only have a 1:100 chance to win anything. If those 100 people could only apply in one of the 5 and evenly distributed you would have 1 tag for 20 apps. Therefore a drastic increase in odds

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