Special permit spread sheets?

[swanderek]

Last year someone posted nice spread sheets for special permits.
Odds, harvest data, etc.
Anyone have that this year?

[Kingofthemountain83]

You can look on the WDFW website and get last years harvest data for special permits... Or regular season... They just dropped earlier this week... 

[tracksoup]

Careful…,
Might get hammered from a few folks on the “Discretion” thread for posting that info. Lot of sour grapes over there.

[Kingofthemountain83]

Careful…,
Might get hammered from a few folks on the “Discretion” thread for posting that info. Lot of sour grapes over there.

Right... 

[dagon]

I don't know of any place to get real odds for Washington state. It is to complicated. I did a lot of research to try and figure out a formula. And we don't get all the data from fish and game that we used to. Huntin Fool says:

The draw odds we list are not the true odds of drawing a particular permit, as they do not reflect the number of bonus points each applicant has accumulated. These simple odds are calculated by dividing the total number of applications by the total number of permits issued for a particular hunt. All applicants are included in one drawing, with no limits or quotas on resident permits.

[Ridgerunner]

WA draw odds are very complicated, unfortunately they no longer will provide the detailed info that they used too.  Not sure why and I've done public records request showing exact reports and still can't get it. 

The average point per draw they publish is basically meaningless and has no real bearing on what will happen in the current year or what your odds are. 

Frustrating for sure. 

Bottom line is the draw odds for what most folks consider good tags are <5% even with 15 plus points.  Often probably closer to 2% or less.  For OIL tags its a matter of luck regardless of how many points you have.  Can't count on drawing anything in this state.  It's a bonus if you do.

[vandeman17]

WA draw odds are very complicated, unfortunately they no longer will provide the detailed info that they used too.  Not sure why and I've done public records request showing exact reports and still can't get it. 

The average point per draw they publish is basically meaningless and has no real bearing on what will happen in the current year or what your odds are. 

Frustrating for sure. 

Bottom line is the draw odds for what most folks consider good tags are <5% even with 15 plus points.  Often probably closer to 2% or less.  For OIL tags its a matter of luck regardless of how many points you have.  Can't count on drawing anything in this state.  It's a bonus if you do.

I stopped really thinking about or caring about odds in this state. Once you start viewing it as a lottery, which it basically is, and applying for the tags you would love to draw, you will be better off. 

[CarbonHunter]

You can take all the data the state has posted and all the secret data they aren’t sharing and regardless of the formulas you use or the AI calculator you use it will return the same results… ODD’s AREN’T GOOD!

Shoot for your favorite hunt and hope for some luck!

[HikerHunter]

The average point per draw they publish is basically meaningless and has no real bearing on what will happen in the current year or what your odds are. 

This is true especially when there are only 1-2 tags. They use the number of points from ONLY the previous year's successful applicants.

So if someone happens to snag a OIL tag with 5 points and there was only one tag in that area, the following year it would look like you only need 5 points to draw that tag, which couldn't be further from the truth.

[millerwheeler]

The state will change yearly due to number of apps and amount of tags a lot of units have changed number wise. Quick answer is who cares apply for the hunts for which you can actually do and would have a great time on. Don’t over think it

[Kingofthemountain83]

I'd say with 15 point most Quality or OIL permits you have less than 1% chance...

[dvolmer]

I'd say with 15 point most Quality or OIL permits you have less than 1% chance...

This is a true statement for sure. Probably about a .01% chance.

[Kingofthemountain83]

I'd say with 15 point most Quality or OIL permits you have less than 1% chance...

This is a true statement for sure. Probably about a .01% chance.

Correctly worded would be ALL... OIL Permits and most Quality permits...       You gotta know some serious algebra to figure out our draw odds...

[HikerHunter]

Correctly worded would be ALL... OIL Permits and most Quality permits...       You gotta know some serious algebra to figure out our draw odds...

Its actually fairly simple math, if there was 5000 applicants and the split was 1000 with 25 points, 1000 with 20 points, 1000 with 15 points, 1000 with 10 points and 1000 with 5 points, then someone with 15 points would have 0.016% of the entries. That was a great guess King!

[dagon]

Correctly worded would be ALL... OIL Permits and most Quality permits...       You gotta know some serious algebra to figure out our draw odds...

Its actually fairly simple math, if there was 5000 applicants and the split was 1000 with 25 points, 1000 with 20 points, 1000 with 15 points, 1000 with 10 points and 1000 with 5 points, then someone with 15 points would have 0.016% of the entries. That was a great guess King!
[/quote

The math is way more complicated then that. You need to put in how many points you have. how many tags are available. and then the hardest thing is to come up with your odds to draw a number that is 1- 10 if for example there are 10 tags to be had. 

[HikerHunter]

Correctly worded would be ALL... OIL Permits and most Quality permits...       You gotta know some serious algebra to figure out our draw odds...

Its actually fairly simple math, if there was 5000 applicants and the split was 1000 with 25 points, 1000 with 20 points, 1000 with 15 points, 1000 with 10 points and 1000 with 5 points, then someone with 15 points would have 0.016% of the entries. That was a great guess King!

The math is way more complicated then that. You need to put in how many points you have. how many tags are available. and then the hardest thing is to come up with your odds to draw a number that is 1- 10 if for example there are 10 tags to be had.

I stated that the applicant had 15 points and, probably too subtly, noted that they had 0.016% of the entries (for the number draw), not a 0.016% of drawing the tag. It does get more complicated when there is more than one tag. Because of the way they do the numbers in the draw, it complicates it more than I want to figure it out. Maybe someone else can take the torch. But even if there are 10 tags, your odds are still awful!

[Bullkllr]

Some things are better left unknown.

[fishngamereaper]

Some things are better left unknown.

Or some things you don't really want to know...
Considering we have better odds of getting struck by lightning... probably best just pick an area and roll the dice... numbers mean nothing in WA.

[throttlejocky20]

Over 20 points in some areas, Met a Gal that killed a pig of a buck on a quality hunt with 2 points, a buddy drew a Goat tag with 9, and another buddy drew a moose tag with 11. Cant win if you dont put in but it really feels like a donatation every year for me lol.

[D-Rock425]

I got lucky and drew a mountain goat tag with only 14 points so I can't say to much about our system.  I think a lot of people dont understand how  our system works.

[Kingofthemountain83]

The number of points you have get's squared before being thrown into the automated lottery draw... So you can figure your draw odds out by doing algebra... X=amount of tags, Y=your points squared, Z=you have to get everyone putting in for that tag to tell you their points... 

[carlyoungs]

The number of points you have get's squared before being thrown into the automated lottery draw... So you can figure your draw odds out by doing algebra... X=amount of tags, Y=your points squared, Z=you have to get everyone putting in for that tag to tell you their points... 

Kind of. From what I've been told they put all the tags in 1 pool. Then add all the names to the hat squared. Then you draw a number. If your number is the lowest they Then assign you the tags that are left.  They don't draw for each hunt at a time. They combine all the tags together at once and then disperse them from there.

[Kingofthemountain83]

I've been rather fortunate in the elk draws as well as some friends and family in this state... I drew a quality elk with 4 points... Drew another quality elk with 4 points... Drew a cow tag with 2, 2 and 3 points... My dad drew a quality elk with 8... Another quality elk with 6... Another quality elk with 4... Cow tags with 2, 4, 2, 4... And a quality deer with 9... A friend has drawn 2 quality elk in with 6 and 4... And a few others that I hunted with but don't recall their draws... I've been on a long drought though in draws... I've never drawn a deer tag or OIL in WA... Some friends have... And get to live through you all on here...

[Kingofthemountain83]

The number of points you have get's squared before being thrown into the automated lottery draw... So you can figure your draw odds out by doing algebra... X=amount of tags, Y=your points squared, Z=you have to get everyone putting in for that tag to tell you their points... 

Kind of. From what I've been told they put all the tags in 1 pool. Then add all the names to the hat squared. Then you draw a number. If your number is the lowest they Then assign you the tags that are left.  They don't draw for each hunt at a time. They combine all the tags together at once and then disperse them from there.

As I understood it as well... They do one hunt at a time... On a couple dozen different computers at a time and get it all done, recorded with back ups and sent to WDFW in a work day... Would you like to know if you're a back up for an OIL tag?   

[CP]

.

[andrew_in_idaho]

The number of points you have get's squared before being thrown into the automated lottery draw... So you can figure your draw odds out by doing algebra... X=amount of tags, Y=your points squared, Z=you have to get everyone putting in for that tag to tell you their points... 

Kind of. From what I've been told they put all the tags in 1 pool. Then add all the names to the hat squared. Then you draw a number. If your number is the lowest they Then assign you the tags that are left.  They don't draw for each hunt at a time. They combine all the tags together at once and then disperse them from there.

As I understood it as well... They do one hunt at a time... On a couple dozen different computers at a time and get it all done, recorded with back ups and sent to WDFW in a work day... Would you like to know if you're a back up for an OIL tag?   

Definitely not one hunt at a time.

They draw everyone’s random numbers

Take each individual applications lowest random number since that is the only one that matters

Compile a list from top to bottom

Go down list and start assigning hunts by application, if a tag is available you draw, if not then on to the next.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Kingofthemountain83]

The number of points you have get's squared before being thrown into the automated lottery draw... So you can figure your draw odds out by doing algebra... X=amount of tags, Y=your points squared, Z=you have to get everyone putting in for that tag to tell you their points... 

Kind of. From what I've been told they put all the tags in 1 pool. Then add all the names to the hat squared. Then you draw a number. If your number is the lowest they Then assign you the tags that are left.  They don't draw for each hunt at a time. They combine all the tags together at once and then disperse them from there.

As I understood it as well... They do one hunt at a time... On a couple dozen different computers at a time and get it all done, recorded with back ups and sent to WDFW in a work day... Would you like to know if you're a back up for an OIL tag?   

Definitely not one hunt at a time.

They draw everyone’s random numbers

Take each individual applications lowest random number since that is the only one that matters

Compile a list from top to bottom

Go down list and start assigning hunts by application, if a tag is available you draw, if not then on to the next.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yeah one category at a time... Just like you say... I dated a lady who worked at the data center who does the draws... I haven't drawn a tag since we stopped hanging out actually...     My dad has though...  One computer will have antlerless... And so on...

[andrew_in_idaho]

The number of points you have get's squared before being thrown into the automated lottery draw... So you can figure your draw odds out by doing algebra... X=amount of tags, Y=your points squared, Z=you have to get everyone putting in for that tag to tell you their points... 

Kind of. From what I've been told they put all the tags in 1 pool. Then add all the names to the hat squared. Then you draw a number. If your number is the lowest they Then assign you the tags that are left.  They don't draw for each hunt at a time. They combine all the tags together at once and then disperse them from there.

As I understood it as well... They do one hunt at a time... On a couple dozen different computers at a time and get it all done, recorded with back ups and sent to WDFW in a work day... Would you like to know if you're a back up for an OIL tag?   

Definitely not one hunt at a time.

They draw everyone’s random numbers

Take each individual applications lowest random number since that is the only one that matters

Compile a list from top to bottom

Go down list and start assigning hunts by application, if a tag is available you draw, if not then on to the next.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yeah one category at a time... Just like you say... I dated a lady who worked at the data center who does the draws... I haven't drawn a tag since we stopped hanging out actually...     My dad has though...  One computer will have antlerless... And so on...

You made it sound like it was individual hunts rather than categories, sorry I misunderstood you


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Kingofthemountain83]

The number of points you have get's squared before being thrown into the automated lottery draw... So you can figure your draw odds out by doing algebra... X=amount of tags, Y=your points squared, Z=you have to get everyone putting in for that tag to tell you their points... 

Kind of. From what I've been told they put all the tags in 1 pool. Then add all the names to the hat squared. Then you draw a number. If your number is the lowest they Then assign you the tags that are left.  They don't draw for each hunt at a time. They combine all the tags together at once and then disperse them from there.

As I understood it as well... They do one hunt at a time... On a couple dozen different computers at a time and get it all done, recorded with back ups and sent to WDFW in a work day... Would you like to know if you're a back up for an OIL tag?   

Definitely not one hunt at a time.

They draw everyone’s random numbers

Take each individual applications lowest random number since that is the only one that matters

Compile a list from top to bottom

Go down list and start assigning hunts by application, if a tag is available you draw, if not then on to the next.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yeah one category at a time... Just like you say... I dated a lady who worked at the data center who does the draws... I haven't drawn a tag since we stopped hanging out actually...     My dad has though...  One computer will have antlerless... And so on...

You made it sound like it was individual hunts rather than categories, sorry I misunderstood you


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

My bad... I was just there to do some repairs... Drug my feet a little when I found out what they were actually doing... I got there during the draws... Blew my mind to see how little of a chance we really had... This was back when the max points was like 12... We all had the best odds... And they gave more tags in the first 8 years... After that it's just a crap shoot... We may as well all have zero points and go in all even with 1 chance for the amount of tags they give out now...

[Chesapeake]

Washington points are like pesos, not worth anything.

You don't want to do the math, you’ll just find out the difference between 5 points and 25 points is maybe 1 or 2% on the OIL and many of the quality tags.
Most folks will never draw an OIL tag in their lifetime.

Figuring the odds would be very difficult if not impossible.

You would need to figure the odds you drew a low number, say top 50. Then figure the odds that the 49 folks in front of you didnt choose either your first or second choice, or the odds that they chose and drew a hunt different than your 2 choices as their first choice and were awarded the tag.
If your first choice had 5 tags, your second choice had 5 tags, and you were drawn #9 in the lineup, you’d have 100% odds at that point.
But if you were #11 in the lineup your odds drop some amount based on the others choices. If you were #20 in line your odds would be even less.
And if your two choices are very popular choices your odds are much less than if your choices are less popular.

Consider Entiat rifle quality deer and Desert late rifle quality deer. One with 15 tags the other with 4, ~3900 applicants for each.(the most popular two?)
So if you pull #30 in the lineup, a great draw, whats the odds the 29 folks in front of you didnt choose either of those tags, or that if they chose one of those as a second choice, that they drew their first choice.

[Sliverslinger]

Go Hunt posted odds this year for each tag for the first time. It included for every hunt how many people with 25,24,23,22, etc… points put in for each special hunt Choice. This leads to a much more accurate estimation of you actual odds based on how many points you have.
You can do a PDR request for data from the WDFW for all data associated with every special hunt as well.