Free: Contests & Raffles.
I wouldn't worry to much about the odds. In the system that wdfw uses is a load of crap. I have been drawn several times for deer tags with next to no points. Like this past year I was drawn for the alta quality deer. I had 2 points. I talked to several guys on the hunt that had been puting in for this hunt for 10 to 15 years. jjhunter on here had only 2 points also. Like last year I put in for a cow tag in 336 had 6 points going in a buddy had 1. He got the tag and I did not. Deffinetly with 23 points I would say you would have a good shot at what every you put in for. I am just saying that the system they use is not fair and do not believe it is a very weighted system. I am not complaining because I have been drawn for several hunts with a low point count. I just think I should be a little more fair to everyone!
Quote from: 400out on March 16, 2011, 03:58:55 PMQuote from: Bob33 on March 16, 2011, 03:42:52 PMQuote from: WSU on March 16, 2011, 11:55:18 AMI usually don't jump in on these posts, but i'm pretty sure this is incorrect. Its been a while since I took statistics, but having 30 chances doesn't change your odds proportionately. The odds are still 1 in 177 for each drawing (except, as you point out, are reduced by the names in the hat that were removed by the individual getting drawn for the preceeding permit). There are 30 permits to be given out in this hypothetic example. Assuming they are drawn one by one, the chance of getting the first one drawn is about 1 in 177. If you don't get the first one drawn, you get another 1 in 177 chance and so forth until all 30 have been drawn. Your odds are therefore much better than 1 in 177. That would be the case if there was one tag and you had 529 of the 94,000 names in the hat. ouch! those numbers hurt Please don't do the numbers on my odds The numbers do hurt. Unfortunately the good tags are very difficult to draw, even with lots of points. For a hunt with 30 permits and 1700 applicants, it doesn’t take much math expertise to see that 1670 won’t get drawn…Having lots of points increases the odds, but it does not assure a tag.
Quote from: Bob33 on March 16, 2011, 03:42:52 PMQuote from: WSU on March 16, 2011, 11:55:18 AMI usually don't jump in on these posts, but i'm pretty sure this is incorrect. Its been a while since I took statistics, but having 30 chances doesn't change your odds proportionately. The odds are still 1 in 177 for each drawing (except, as you point out, are reduced by the names in the hat that were removed by the individual getting drawn for the preceeding permit). There are 30 permits to be given out in this hypothetic example. Assuming they are drawn one by one, the chance of getting the first one drawn is about 1 in 177. If you don't get the first one drawn, you get another 1 in 177 chance and so forth until all 30 have been drawn. Your odds are therefore much better than 1 in 177. That would be the case if there was one tag and you had 529 of the 94,000 names in the hat. ouch! those numbers hurt Please don't do the numbers on my odds
Quote from: WSU on March 16, 2011, 11:55:18 AMI usually don't jump in on these posts, but i'm pretty sure this is incorrect. Its been a while since I took statistics, but having 30 chances doesn't change your odds proportionately. The odds are still 1 in 177 for each drawing (except, as you point out, are reduced by the names in the hat that were removed by the individual getting drawn for the preceeding permit). There are 30 permits to be given out in this hypothetic example. Assuming they are drawn one by one, the chance of getting the first one drawn is about 1 in 177. If you don't get the first one drawn, you get another 1 in 177 chance and so forth until all 30 have been drawn. Your odds are therefore much better than 1 in 177. That would be the case if there was one tag and you had 529 of the 94,000 names in the hat.
I usually don't jump in on these posts, but i'm pretty sure this is incorrect. Its been a while since I took statistics, but having 30 chances doesn't change your odds proportionately. The odds are still 1 in 177 for each drawing (except, as you point out, are reduced by the names in the hat that were removed by the individual getting drawn for the preceeding permit).
So this topic is making me feel worse about my chances of getting drawn . From what I can gather with my 16 points this year I still don't have much of a chance this year? Is this what I hearing??? what do you guys think? I will be applying for muzzy in the dayton and wenaha.
Quote from: Bob33 on March 16, 2011, 04:42:29 PMQuote from: 400out on March 16, 2011, 03:58:55 PMouch! those numbers hurt Please don't do the numbers on my odds The numbers do hurt. Unfortunately the good tags are very difficult to draw, even with lots of points. For a hunt with 30 permits and 1700 applicants, it doesn’t take much math expertise to see that 1670 won’t get drawn…Having lots of points increases the odds, but it does not assure a tag.Perhaps a better example is rolling a single die. Each roll gives you a one in six chance of getting a two. Rolling six times doesn't change the odds. Each time you have a one in six chance of rolling a two. Obviously the likelihood of getting a two goes up the more times you take the one in six chance, but not in the manner you indicated. Do the same math you did for everyone having 7.5 points (the assumed average) and you will see that everyone cannot have that high of a percentage chance of drawing.
Quote from: 400out on March 16, 2011, 03:58:55 PMouch! those numbers hurt Please don't do the numbers on my odds The numbers do hurt. Unfortunately the good tags are very difficult to draw, even with lots of points. For a hunt with 30 permits and 1700 applicants, it doesn’t take much math expertise to see that 1670 won’t get drawn…Having lots of points increases the odds, but it does not assure a tag.
ouch! those numbers hurt Please don't do the numbers on my odds
