Free: Contests & Raffles.
Where are you guys getting the 7.5? Is that just a made up thing or is that the average points for someone drawing the tag?
Quote from: jackelope on March 15, 2011, 08:39:26 PMHow do you calculate odds in a bonus point system without knowing how many points each of the applicants has when they select a particular unit. I used to be a math geek and I've not been able to figure it out.I don't think you will ever know how many will put in for any given permit until after the drawing. I would assume that your odds maybe better on the lower number of applicant permits. For example. The sept. bull rifle tags. I would also take advantage of putting in for cow tags also.
How do you calculate odds in a bonus point system without knowing how many points each of the applicants has when they select a particular unit. I used to be a math geek and I've not been able to figure it out.
Quote from: rtspring on March 15, 2011, 08:48:00 PMI would like to see this odds Formula my self. Please post it......We havea guy in our camp that draws a cow tag, almost every other year.........luck SOBHere is how I would compute the odds.Use Dayton hunt #2006 as an example. The regulations indicate there were 30 permits and 1677 applicants. (The reality is that some of the 1677 applicants may have been drawn for other hunts, so there were not 1677 applicants competing for the Dayton tag. )Assume there were in fact 1677 applicants. Each of the 1677 applicants has 7.5 points. That means each of the 1677 applicants has about 56 (7.5x7.5) names in the "hat". That means there are a total of 56x1677 = 93,912 names in the hat.Mr. Halo has 23 points, so he has 23*23 = 529 names in the hat. His odds of getting the first tag drawn are about 529 / 93912, or about 1 in 177.On the second name being drawn, his odds are a bit better because the person drawn first is no longer eligible. That means there are 56 fewer eligible names in the hat. On the second draw, Mr. Halo’s odds are now 529 / 93856.This process continues until Mr. Halo is drawn, or until the 30 tags are given out. Assuming that each draw provides Mr. Halo with a 1 in 177 odds of being drawn, his odds of not being drawn for any of the 30 permits is (176/177)^30 which equals .84. That means he has an 84% chance of not being drawn, which means he has about a 16% chance of being drawn.Real simple!
I would like to see this odds Formula my self. Please post it......We havea guy in our camp that draws a cow tag, almost every other year.........luck SOB
If he really wants to get drawn he'll put in as a partnership with me, combine our points and we'd still have 14 or 15. Throw in my luck in pulling great tags and he'd be going elk hunting in the blues this year. LOL.
i only got to page two on this one but didnt they bust a guy in the fish and game dept last year that had been rigging the system for the last 5-10years? i had a good source tell me that. some guys were getting great tags every year or every other year.
Quote from: greenhead_killer on March 16, 2011, 12:00:54 PMi only got to page two on this one but didnt they bust a guy in the fish and game dept last year that had been rigging the system for the last 5-10years? i had a good source tell me that. some guys were getting great tags every year or every other year.dude i dont want to jack the thread but i would really like to know more about this *censored* that was helpn people draw tags at the wdfw
Quote from: jackmaster on March 16, 2011, 12:18:20 PMQuote from: greenhead_killer on March 16, 2011, 12:00:54 PMi only got to page two on this one but didnt they bust a guy in the fish and game dept last year that had been rigging the system for the last 5-10years? i had a good source tell me that. some guys were getting great tags every year or every other year.dude i dont want to jack the thread but i would really like to know more about this *censored* that was helpn people draw tags at the wdfwReally..gotta hear more about this!
