Eastsider sitting on 12 bull elk points, thinking about applying in western WA

[jackelope]

I've never "computed" draw odds. I know where I want to hunt and that's where I apply for. When I apply for a hunt that gives out 100 permits and the average points to draw the year before was 6 hypothetically...and I have 6 points, I know I at least have sort of good odds of drawing and that is enough to keep my hopes up that I might draw. I've drawn 4 special permits in my life and it's worked for 3 out of the 4 of them. The 1 it didn't work for was the 1st year the permit was offered and I drew the only permit they gave out so there was no average from the year before. That is all the computation that goes into my computing. That is all. Call it computing, call it guessing, call it dumb, call it whatever you want.

[Bob33]

As an example, hunt 2006 (Dayton Quality Elk) in 2013 offered 12 permits. There were 1311 applications. The "average  points" of all applications was 7.2. The "average points" for successful applicants was 11.

An application with 11 points had a 2.1% chance of drawing.

[idahohuntr]

I know where I want to hunt and that's where I apply for.

Hard to go wrong with this logic. 

[C-Money]

I have been rifle elk hunting since the archery cow hunt was shut down in the Colockum. Since then I have killed a spike bull, and a cow. Its been a dream to have a nice bull ever since I sat on the bulls my uncle and fatehr killed when I was a little boy. I think I will keep on putting in for the normal Yakima bull tags here in WA. Maybe save for a trip to Montana or Idaho for a bull would be a good option in the near future.

[Bob33]

The points system in Washington started in 1996. As time goes on, I think more and more hunters will become disillusioned as they realize just how difficult it is to draw the best permits.

I suspect hunters will begin to start looking harder at the second tier permits. "I'm getting too old to wait much longer on drawing a Blues/Colockum/etc. bull permit; what can I draw with 10 to 15 points?"

[Blacktail Sniper]

If you decide on a west side hunt, make sure about the ability to get or, if you will need, an access permit to the area you are planning on going, Weyerhauser is certain to put St Helens on the pay to access list this year since last years sales went so well.  With Margaret and Toutle being in the St Helen's tree farm, would be a shame to draw then not be able to get into hunt. 

[jstone]

Had the clockum archery big bull in 2006. Itching to get another big bull. I am thinking of switching areas to. But not sure if this archery season will be any good cause its so early?

[Tbar]

As an example, hunt 2006 (Dayton Quality Elk) in 2013 offered 12 permits. There were 1311 applications. The "average  points" of all applications was 7.2. The "average points" for successful applicants was 11.

An application with 11 points had a 2.1% chance of drawing.

That's depressing.

[STIKNSTRINGBOW]

I know where I want to hunt and that's where I apply for.

Hard to go wrong with this logic.

Save your points, no elk on the west side, otherwise they would all be in the back of trucks at McDonalds, 
Really, almost every unit has possibilities, learn a unit well while you build points and you stand a better chance when drawn than hunting a unit you know nothing about.

[baker5150]

Nooksack

I got a guest room for ya, and it'll only cost you 1 steak and 6 beers.

[ELKBURGER]

Nooksack

I got a guest room for ya, and it'll only cost you 1 steak and 6 beers.

Per night!

[Skillet]

Every year it will get worse, and the points you think you've been banking are actually depreciating.  With the system set up as it is, unless the number of tags in a draw increases I believe a guy with 12 points in this draw will have worse odds than a guy with 11 points in the same draw last year.  The growth of names in the hat each year greatly exceeds the number names that drop out because of either drawing or applying elsewhere.

It is unsustainable unless they call it what it is - you have a very slim chance - even with top points - to draw a popular tag in any given year.  The WDFW had effectively turned it from a "wait your turn" thing into a lottery with odds that in 10 years or so will approximate a Powerball drawing...

The expansion of the drawing categories you can apply for in a single year single instantly put most people in bad shape in terms of drawing a tag.  A 15 elk point guy waiting to draw his Colockum bull tag instantly had 15 points in every elk category.  That right there created the same number of additional names in the cow tag hat as 225 brand new hunters applying for the cow tag for the first time.

I am really surprised anybody still plays this game in Washington with the odds being what they are.   

[bobcat]

I am really surprised anybody still plays this game in Washington with the odds being what they are.   

Some of us can't afford to hunt out of state every year, especially with $4/gallon gas.

If gas prices and non resident tag prices were cut in half, I would give up on this state, for both deer and elk.

But for now I'm stuck here, and I'm not the type to quit hunting and take up fishing instead.

[Skillet]

I both fish and hunt myself.  I just don't dream of the monster Blues bulls and have accepted the General Seasons as my lot in Washington.  $6 is a launch fee and represents a day's worth of fishing instead of handing it over to the WDFW for a one-in-a-zillion (and worsening) chance at a draw tag.

If I really wanted to have a shot at a big bull on a classic western elk hunt before I got too dang old to do it, I'd be stuffing every spare dollar I could in the piggy bank and would do a "trip of a lifetime" drop camp hunt with guaranteed tags somewhere.  My knees are only going to hold up to that type of hunt for so long, and it isn't long enough to risk not doing the hunt ever in my lifetime by depending on Washington's draw system to work for me.

[blackveltbowhunter]

   They are your points, its your time and your idea of what constitutes a "quality" elk hunt.

    IMO a quality elk hunt, means ( not in order ). 1) Great season timing and/or more time to hunt. 2) I will be into ELK with minimal scouting. 3) The opportunity for an above to well above average bull exist and will be based primarily on my scouting effort and hunt time frame.
 
   It is my belief that very few tags exist in W.Washington that meet all of the criteria. Some of the rifle rut tags excluded, even if you pull a "quality" tag you will still need to either scout significantly to locate elk. Or you will readily locate elk, but the bulls will not be above average and hunt timing not great. Enter bulk of St. Helens quality tags here.

  I would not burn 12 points on any tag that didn't offer the possibility of rut timing, or an extended season. If it were me and I was dead set on hunting over here, I would be looking at Goat Rocks, Lewis river, Adams. Etc.... Its closer to you than alot of the other units and is a 2 week hunt in what is generally considered prime rut timing. One option might be to apply for one of these and if unsuccesful hunt the general season westside. It would be an opportunity to become familiar with the terrain, and area and possibly get into a branched bull on a OTC tag.