Game Mgmt. Council Meeting Notes - 2015-17 season proposals, baiting etc.

[Rainier10]

Hasn't the multiplier already improved the odds of the higher point holders?  Not taking a shot at your post Carbon, just saying in general the higher point guys already have a significant advantage in a drawing with dismal odds but they do still have it better.  If you want better odds put in for another state or by raffle tags.

There is no "multiplier" per se. Points are squared. Someone with 20 points has essentially 400 (20 times 20) names in the drawing hat. Someone with 10 points has 100 (10 times 10) names in the hat. Someone with one point has one name in the hat. The person with one name in the hat can draw, but the person with 20 points has a 400 times greater chance.

Yes that is what I meant, you already have more chances because of the squaring of your points.  And each year the guys with less than max points squared have less of a chance of drawing.  The guys with max points already always have the better odds of drawing.

I recall, you I believe, posting how the odds go down each year based on the squaring going up and only so many people being eliminated from the pool by drawing a tag.

Anyways the system is what it is and there is no point in messing it up more.

[huntnphool]

Hasn't the multiplier already improved the odds of the higher point holders?  Not taking a shot at your post Carbon, just saying in general the higher point guys already have a significant advantage in a drawing with dismal odds but they do still have it better.  If you want better odds put in for another state or by raffle tags.

There is no "multiplier" per se. Points are squared. Someone with 20 points has essentially 400 (20 times 20) names in the drawing hat. Someone with 10 points has 100 (10 times 10) names in the hat. Someone with one point has one name in the hat. The person with one name in the hat can draw, but the person with 20 points has a 400 times greater chance.

Yes that is what I meant, you already have more chances because of the squaring of your points.  And each year the guys with less than max points squared have less of a chance of drawing.  The guys with max points already always have the better odds of drawing.

I recall, you I believe, posting how the odds go down each year based on the squaring going up and only so many people being eliminated from the pool by drawing a tag.

Anyways the system is what it is and there is no point in messing it up more.

 Ive said it before, the GMAC meetings do not represent the hunting community as a whole, but rather is made up of a select few, from individual groups with nothing more than their own self interest in mind.

 You would think that these "group leaders" would be speaking for their group as a whole, but that is not how it works. There are a couple squeaky wheels, and as the saying goes....

[Bob33]

I recall, you I believe, posting how the odds go down each year based on the squaring going up and only so many people being eliminated from the pool by drawing a tag.

Applicants with high numbers of points all typically see a slight decrease in draw odds each year. That is because there are a large number of applicants with low numbers of points.

Think about this extreme (unrealistic, but illustrative) example: for a certain specie there are ten applicants with 20 points. Each of the ten has 400 names in the hat. Combined, they have 4000 names in the hat. There are also 1000 applicants with one point. Combined, they have 1000 names in the hat. There are a total of 5000 names in the hat. The ten applicants with 20 points have 80% of the names in the hat.

Next year, the 10 applicants with 20 points will each have 21 points. Each has 441 names in the hat. Combined, they have 4410 names in the hat. The 1000 applicants that had one point now have two points each, and therefore each now has four names in the hat. Combined, they have 4000 names in the hat. There are now 8410 names in the hat. The ten applicants with the most points now have only 52% of the chances to draw.

Because there are so many applicants with few points, and because their odds increase more rapidly they pull down the odds for those with high point levels.

Going from one point to two points increases your number of names in the hat by a factor of four. Going from 20 points to 21 points increases your number of names in the hat by a factor of 1.1.

The tipping point is usually somewhere in the middle: currently those with less than ten points see an increase each year, those with more typically see a slight decrease.

[CarbonHunter]

In the you vs the world scenario (10 applicants/20 points vs 1000 applicants/1 point) the group with the most applicants is always going to increase the names in the hat the fastest.

I'm simply stating to increase one personal odds of drawing over the next guys odds of drawing without creating a whole list of what if's. Increase the multiplier. Instead of squaring (multiplier of 2) the point total cube (multiplier of 3) the point total.  In example squared: 20 points = 400 applications. Cubed: 20 points = 8000 applications; 21 points = 441. Cubed 21 points = 9261. All the while those entering the game still only have 1 name in the hat. Although those entering the game would accumulate points faster they would not catch up as quick. Leaving the edge to the top point holders.

The difference in awarding of permits to those with higher points is probably similar to the 25% change the state is proposing but it would eliminate a lot of the questions people have as to how to implement the change.

And as to putting in "outta state" I  have hunted in other states but I see the value in drawing a descent  tag in my home state. Therefore I'm committed to the washington state draw and I appreciate getting a point when I don't draw. It sure beats the sharp stick in the eye you could be getting. 

[Bob33]

Instead of squaring (multiplier of 2) the point total cube (multiplier of 3) the point total.  In example squared: 20 points = 400 applications. Cubed: 20 points = 8000 applications; 21 points = 441. Cubed 21 points = 9261.

OK. You're referring to the exponent that points are raised to. That would increase the odds more for those with more points.

When it gets right down to it, there are far too many applicants for far too few permits and tags. 49 Degrees North moose had 14,149 applications for 21 tags in 2013. 14,128 of them are not going to draw regardless of how the game is played.

[CarbonHunter]

Instead of squaring (multiplier of 2) the point total cube (multiplier of 3) the point total.  In example squared: 20 points = 400 applications. Cubed: 20 points = 8000 applications; 21 points = 441. Cubed 21 points = 9261.

OK. You're referring to the exponent that points are raised to. That would increase the odds more for those with more points.

When it gets right down to it, there are far too many applicants for far too few permits and tags. 49 Degrees North moose had 14,149 applications for 21 tags in 2013. 14,128 of them are not going to draw regardless of how the game is played.

Correct. In one year, in one catagorie there is not enough animals for everyone who puts in. But we as hunters need to decide if we want to hold out for years for that one special permit or put in for different permits with better odds of drawing.

I think one of the best examples is late entiat rifle. Every year more people put in for it even though the are giving out fewer tags. Many people are quietly killing bigger bucks in different units and laughing at those complaining how difficult it is to draw that tag.

[bobcat]

Cube points instead of squaring? 

The company that does the draw would likely need to purchase a new computer!

[Bob33]

Cube points instead of squaring? 

The company that does the draw would likely need to purchase a new computer!

They would just hire more monkeys to count the names in the hat.

[csaaphill]

Ilike it the way it was the point system that is. No points just put your $2.50 per permit and if drawn you couldn't  again for a year or two. one if drawn but not killed anything two if drawn and killed something I think is how it was.
crossbows? good! been wanting them to ok that for years.
baiting not my thing but there are always lots of wild apples and plums in spots I hunt and or wheat so...
bear if a issue lengthen the season.
Couger too go from Jan 1st to Dec 31st year around basically.

[Bigshooter]

After reading the whole thread I am impressed that everyone can agree to so much stuff    With so much agreement it should be really easy for WDFW to keep everyone happy. 

[csaaphill]

After reading the whole thread I am impressed that everyone can agree to so much stuff    With so much agreement it should be really easy for WDFW to keep everyone happy. 

ya didn't see much I disageed with.

[highside74]

Did they talk about cameras on bows?? Thanks for the update been wondering what was going on!

The meeting I went to in Tacoma I talked with them about gopros. They said they wouldn't give anyone a ticket for having a gopro on their bow because it's not aiding in the taking of game in any way. I spoke with 2 officers and 2 officials and got the same response from all 4.

[Rainier10]

Did they talk about cameras on bows?? Thanks for the update been wondering what was going on!

The meeting I went to in Tacoma I talked with them about gopros. They said they wouldn't give anyone a ticket for having a gopro on their bow because it's not aiding in the taking of game in any way. I spoke with 2 officers and 2 officials and got the same response from all 4.

I personally am not going to risk it, I have the head strap mount that works pretty well.

[highside74]

Did they talk about cameras on bows?? Thanks for the update been wondering what was going on!

The meeting I went to in Tacoma I talked with them about gopros. They said they wouldn't give anyone a ticket for having a gopro on their bow because it's not aiding in the taking of game in any way. I spoke with 2 officers and 2 officials and got the same response from all 4.

I personally am not going to risk it, I have the head strap mount that works pretty well.

A lot of people are using them to film themselves not the animal.