Warm water bubble off WCVI

[jamesfromseattle]

It was a pretty bad summer of salmon fishing last year in the strait of Juan de Fuca. Also took trips up to Barkley Sound and out to Neah Bay and it was pretty slow there unless you were willing to run way off shore. The theory I heard is that a warm water bubble formed off the west coast of Vancouver Island and pushed all the fish around the east side of Vancouver Island or kept them DEEP off the west coast. Something to do with an unusually calm winter and El Niño.

I have nearly failed just about every science class I've ever taken... Does anybody else have any insight on how the ocean conditions are looking this year?

I love fishing the straits and the west cost of Vancouver Island but am afraid I'll end up with another empty freezer this summer. It has obviously been a very warm winter so I am a little concerned. Might be time to start exploring some new areas.

[WSU]

Ocean conditions are generally crappy for salmon.  Expect fishing to be down for the next few years, as the smolt that are hitting the salt are not expected to survive well.  We've had great ocean conditions for a while.  Things have swung the other way.

[singleshot12]

An large underwater active volcano a couple hundred miles off the west coast is most likely responsible.

[notellumcreek]

I think the warm pocket of water is suppose to be around for awhile... supposedly another one is developing off the coast of alaska. We will be fishing for marlin soon 

[Skillet]

An large underwater active volcano a couple hundred miles off the west coast is most likely responsible.

You can't be serious...

[JimmyHoffa]

Axial Seamount

[singleshot12]

An large underwater active volcano a couple hundred miles off the west coast is most likely responsible.

You can't be serious...

Why not..look it up

[JackOfAllTrades]

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/underwater-volcano-erupting-oregon-coast-article-1.2206920

[singleshot12]

Thanks Jack! There is no doubt that a large volcano like that would warm temps enough to disrupt normal salmon migration. I'm sure the pinks won't really mind tho 

[WSU]

An large underwater active volcano a couple hundred miles off the west coast is most likely responsible.

You can't be serious...

Why not..look it up

Why not?  Lots of reasons.  First and foremost, the volcano apparently erupted last week and the warm water has existed for months. 

[Skillet]

An large underwater active volcano a couple hundred miles off the west coast is most likely responsible.

You can't be serious...

Why not..look it up

Why not?  Lots of reasons.  First and foremost, the volcano apparently erupted last week and the warm water has existed for months. 

 

That, and for a quick fun math exercise I decided to try and put it in perspective.  The energy it would take to warm the size of the bubble of water (for ease of math I'm assuming it is 1/100th of the volume of the Pacific Ocean, or 700,000 cubic miles of water) only a single degree farenheit would take 6,645,987,532,800,000,000 BTU's.  Or, roughly 239,251 megatons of thermal energy. 

Considering it is widely acknowledged that Mt. St. Helens produced 24 megatons of thermal energy, for a volcano to raise the temperature of the upper west coast of the US by just 1 degree there would have to be about 9,968 Mt. St. Helens' erupting at once down there (and due to WSU's astute observation, it would have had to happen before the warm water existed ).  I'm no geologist, but I think even I would have heard about that happening...

My math might be off a bit, as well as my assumption about the size of the bubble of warm water, but even then it still clearly illustrates that the volcano, or a whole gang of them, is not directly warming that water. 

[singleshot12]

Not sure why you're having such a hard time believing that deep sea volcanic activity couldn't be responsible for our warmer ocean currents and weather The earths center core is as hot as the sun and the heat has to escape somewhere. The Jaun de fuca fault line has been spewing magma for sometime now and has always been a major concern.

[snocohunter]

What he is saying, is there is no evidence that hundreds or even thousands of  volcanoes are causing a warming of the ocean. There are a lot of other factors that have added up. I think it's just a normal ebb and flow, not impending doom from the earth's core. 

[singleshot12]

Hundreds or thousands of volcanoes not sure anyone is saying that. People tend to believe what is more comforting to them I guess.

[fishngamereaper]

Although interesting and probably affecting a nice little area around the occurrence the volcanos don't have enough energy to heat the whole coast. The blob is a natural occurrence, it did it a few years ago and brought tuna within 15 miles of Westport.  Back on topic. For the OP, salmon fishing last year was not that bad, just had to look for the fish. Salmon follow the bait, and the bait last year, especially off the coast and western straights was deep. And consequently we where catching salmon on Tuna troll gear last year in "green" water. Because of the bait.

This year should be lights out for salmon. They may be deep on the coast again, its hard to say until summer, but the Chinook forecast is very good. The straights and sound should be great, with the coho and pink returns, the top 40ft should be on fire starting mid august till Oct.

Good luck.

[WSU]

The big salmon problem won't be this year.  It will be when the fish that migrated as smolts and hit an ocean with little food return.  Think 1, 2, 3, or 4 years from now. 

[singleshot12]

Salmon forcasts have been wrong before. A poor forcast would result in low tackle and licence sales.

[fishngamereaper]

Salmon forcasts have been wrong before. A poor forcast would result in low tackle and licence sales.

True, forecasts can be off, but a poor forecast would result in limited seasons set at the North Of Falcon meetings in Cali. They are not going to forecast big numbers just to sell licenses. Over the years whether good or bad forecasts, doesn't seem to have much of an effect on license sales. For me Salmon is a small percentage of why I buy my fishing license. Crab, shrimp, bottom fish and tuna are just as important.

[WSU]

I'll go fishing whether the forecast is good or bad.

[Skillet]

Not sure why you're having such a hard time believing that deep sea volcanic activity couldn't be responsible for our warmer ocean currents and weather The earths center core is as hot as the sun and the heat has to escape somewhere. The Jaun de fuca fault line has been spewing magma for sometime now and has always been a major concern.

I can't believe it because quite simply, the science doesn't bear out your theory.

[JackOfAllTrades]

I can't believe it because quite simply, the science doesn't bear out your theory.

I understand the math and the BTU it takes to make a temperature change for that mass of water. But even an El Niño or La Niña year can have an effect on water temperatures at upper levels. I have to believe that a combination of many forces over time can certainly have an impact. That volcano wasn't just borne... It's been building for hundreds or thousands of years. How long has the surrounding area been warming up? We may never know. Just like one of the lowest snow fall years we've ever seen in the NW. There are things we'll likely never be able to explain. Even with modern science.

-Steve