The ridiculousness of the Methow Valley and Mule deer

[NOCK NOCK]

[quote author=Mtnwalker link=topic=281805.msg3839611#msg3839611 date=16969

22 were confirmed by predator type, with another 9 “unknown but likely predation” so more like 59%

Also these were adult collared deer. I’d imagine the number skews way up when you start looking at mortality cause of current year’s fawn and calf crop
[/quote]




"Unknown" means not able to confirm cause of death
"likely"= Assumption...well we all know where that gets ya.   

[NOCK NOCK]

Interesting how wildlife management by either science or emotion plays out on HW.

For some folks it needs to be science............unless it fits their narrative, then emotion is king.     

 

[boneaddict]

How about math?  I’ll keep it simple

  One cat eats two deer a week.  10 cats eat 20 deer a week
Zero wolves eat zero deer a week, 100 wolves eat …….
Throw in a few more players such as coyotes, golden eagles, bobcats, bears, grizz bears

Now, extrapolate that out.

Less deer for the two legged variety.   
Call it emotion if you want.   

[NOCK NOCK]

The same can be applied to human population expansion in the valley, or any ungulate area. More people means more ungulate death.

I do not like the increased predator population anymore than anyone else, but I tend to believe in science and history. Pred/prey have coexisted for a long time. One’s population depends on the other. Too many preds kill too many deer is a problem for the preds, their populations will decrease. Deer populations then increase.

This scenario has been playing out long before man, and yet we still have deer and preds. 

Guessing a lot here do not get my point.
PS( someone will respond to this that I sound like an anti, or hugger) sorry but you’re dead wrong. 


“Yep there USED to be a lot of deer in these parts”

[Mtnwalker]

The same can be applied to human population expansion in the valley, or any ungulate area. More people means more ungulate death.

I do not like the increased predator population anymore than anyone else, but I tend to believe in science and history. Pred/prey have coexisted for a long time. One’s population depends on the other. Too many preds kill too many deer is a problem for the preds, their populations will decrease. Deer populations then increase.

This scenario has been playing out long before man, and yet we still have deer and preds. 

Guessing a lot here do not get my point.
PS( someone will respond to this that I sound like an anti, or hugger) sorry but you’re dead wrong. 


“Yep there USED to be a lot of deer in these parts”

Everybody understands what you're saying, we just disagree with your viewpoint. Your own "science" that you are referencing shows that predation was the majority single factor in adult mule deer mortalities even though the study was designed to illustrate the opposite. The problem with this study is this is only showing mortality cause of existing deer and does not address fawn recruitment or lack thereof. So in an area of predator over-abundance if 8 or 9 out of 10 fawns are gobbled up in the first 60 days of life then your science fails to address that. 

[Bob33]

I am sure that wildlife populations fluctuate for a variety of reasons. I don’t understand how predators can’t be one of the most significant factors.

The state’s cougar population is estimated at 3,000. WDFW states that a cougar eats a deer every 9 to 12 days. Assuming 20 deer per year per cougar that’s a total of 60,000 deer killed each year.

The state’s black bear population is estimated at 30,000. Black bears are known to be very hard on fawns. Assume half the bears are adult and kill one deer year; that’s another 15,000.

There are maybe 500 wolves in the state. Assume each wolf kills ten deer, that’s another 5,000.

Add coyotes and other predators, and the number of deer killed annually by predators approaches 100,000.

Licensed hunters report annual harvests of around 25,000 deer.

How can predators not be a major factor in the decline of ungulate populations?

[wolfbait]

What was the baseline of animals studied?

From WDFW 

Total ungulates collared since the study began include:

Species   Adult   Juvenile
Mule deer*   149      0
White-tailed deer   131   97
Elk   63   20

From WDF&Wolves, should have known, protect predators above all else

[bigmacc]

And just to add(concerning by previous post) I in no way believe fires, winters encroachment etc are not issues concerning the Methow herd but in no way are any of them the number 1 issue/issues. Imo as well as others including some retired Game Department folks (family members) predators and lack of aggressive management of those predators are the number 1 issue concerning the decline of the Methow deer herd.

[hunter399]

I wouldn't take that estimate of cougars killing a deer every two weeks. Like it's wrote in stone.
I'm sure cougars just like all predators are opportunity based .
Example would be a few,grouse, turkey,rabbit,smaller critters, in-between big game kills.

The predator/prey study.....
Even though the results give some insight to what's going on.
The "unknown factors" really bring it down to inconclusive data.
Example fawn mortality, which is some of the most important data in my opinion. They dropped the ball.
Now if that was just cause they couldn't get that data,or an attempt to protect predators,we will never know.

I'm kinda with nocknock there are many contributed factors bringing mule deer numbers down.
I can't point the finger at predators alone,it may,or may not be number one. Hard to say. The number one cause may be different for certain areas. 
My opinion....
Antlerless harvest and fawn mortality are the only two things that can bring a herd back. If it takes more predator hunting,or less antlerless harvest for hunters. We need to do what's best for our ungulates. Like said above,the "unknown factors" of fawns mortality in the predator/prey project really put that research as a waste of time. I feel they are protecting predators by skewed data.
I think they know what killed those fawns,and didn't want there research effecting predator seasons ect.
Cause if we know the truth about fawn mortality,then predators could be the number one factor. The biologists that did that project didn't want that data revealed.

[Bob33]

I wouldn't take that estimate of cougars killing a deer every two weeks. Like it's wrote in stone.

It is an estimate but one that many sources including WDFW confirm. "Every 7 to 12 days" would equate to between 30 and 52 killed per year.

https://wdfw.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2019-03/Cougar%20Brochure.pdf

"Cougars’ principal prey includes deer and elk, but they also catch prey as small as deer mice. Other prey includes coyotes, rabbits, rodents, raccoons, beaver, and infrequently, pets and livestock. Usually a cougar kills only one large animal at a time and kills one deer-sized prey every 7 to 12 days."

[mcrawfordaf]

From a research project of Mule Deer herds in the N. Sierras facing cougar predation:

"Fawn survival a problem:
The research team captured 96 newborn fawns and equipped them with radio collars over a 7-year period from 1979 to 1985. These radio transmitters not only allowed the researchers to determine the locations of the fawns, but they also sent out a special signal when the fawns died. This allowed researchers to locate the fawns soon after they died and determine the cause of death. They were able to monitor and determine the fate of 90 of these fawns through their first year of life.
All the fawns were healthy at time of capture, and their size and weight were comparable to those of fawns from other mule deer herds. During the 7 years of the study, fawn survival ranged from 13% to 42% and averaged 38%. Two percent were killed in accidents, 9% died from disease or birth defects, and predators were responsible for the deaths of 51% of the fawns. Of those taken by predators 3% were killed by bobcats, 22% by bears, 27% by coyotes, and 49% by mountain lions."

[2MANY]

I'm shocked people don't get the impact predator's have on hoof critters, and just as shocked that people don't understand management.

IF YOU ARE GOING TO MANAGE A FEW SPECIES IN AN ECOSYSTEM THEN YOU NEED TO MANAGE ALL THE SPECIES.
NOT MANAGING PREDATOR NUMBERS IS A JOKE AND GOVERNMENT IS THE PUNCHLINE!!!!!!!!!!!

[hunter399]

I wouldn't take that estimate of cougars killing a deer every two weeks. Like it's wrote in stone.

It is an estimate but one that many sources including WDFW confirm. "Every 7 to 12 days" would equate to between 30 and 52 killed per year.

https://wdfw.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2019-03/Cougar%20Brochure.pdf

"Cougars’ principal prey includes deer and elk, but they also catch prey as small as deer mice. Other prey includes coyotes, rabbits, rodents, raccoons, beaver, and infrequently, pets and livestock. Usually a cougar kills only one large animal at a time and kills one deer-sized prey every 7 to 12 days."

Exactly LOL.
That estimate only works out if there is 52 deer in that habitat for a cougar to kill.
I live in the predator pit,ring of predators if you will.
They will scratch out a living on anything,till the next round of fawns hit the ground.
Just like tag soup for hunters,cougar is not gonna kill that many deer a year if they don't exist.
Just depends on the habitat, current deer population,human interaction between the two.
Anything WDFW tells ya,you gotta take that with a grain of salt.
In a very rich deer habitat,they probably will kill that many deer a year,I agree. If the ungulate population can support it. If it can't support it,than the estimate is wrong.
I'll give an example...
Trail cams where I live. Every cam that has a big buck,or a very good deer population,will always have a cat on the camera.
Areas with very low deer population may still have a cat on it,they will look unhealthy,skinny,overall hungry looking.
But they will still scratch out a living. Just not on deer.
Another trend I noticed in very low ungulate areas.
A cat will take all the fawns first,you will see fawns spring and early summer. Then by fall about this time,no fawns or yearling at all.
Only adult deer,I'm not talking about them losing there spots.
I'm saying they are gone. But that cougar will leave a few deer.
So it can eat it's fawns the next year.

I guess the point I'm making,is that estimate from WDFW,only works if there is enough deer to support it.
There are spots where I live,you would never see 52 deer a year on public land. So how can they eat that many.

[huntnphool]

That's because they have the largest year impact on the deer population.

Prove it!

That's not hard to do at all, look at the Lolo elk herd or the Yellowstone after the illegal introduction of wolves. Do you think the wolves only eat elk?

Totally diff ecosystems…. Even so, that does not prove the reason todrop of herd quantity.
Go ahead and keep on drinking the wolf-aid,   Pretty sure you are kegs worth into it so far.

PS, I’m not say wolves/preds do not play a part……just not as big
Of a role as most claim…… they are an easy blame tool

Of 52 Mule Deer mortalities studied in the Okanogan during the Predator Prey Project - 22 were predation... 

Not sure if you argree/disagree with my post?
But it proves my point. Lets do some math.....

So 42% of the study animals were killed by predators, that leaves 58% killed/died by other means. Not the "sky is falling" numbers some would like you to believe.

Why is blackjack a predominant game at gambling casinos?  Simple, the odds are in the favor of the house.
The basic odds of winning a hand of blackjack as a player are guess what? 42%

Guess we all need to be playing BJ to get rich. It's working for the predators.

 42% by predators, break down the other 58%!…or are you suggesting the rest is a single cause?

 My guess is 42% is the majority.

[hunter399]

That's because they have the largest year impact on the deer population.

Prove it!

That's not hard to do at all, look at the Lolo elk herd or the Yellowstone after the illegal introduction of wolves. Do you think the wolves only eat elk?

Totally diff ecosystems…. Even so, that does not prove the reason todrop of herd quantity.
Go ahead and keep on drinking the wolf-aid,   Pretty sure you are kegs worth into it so far.

PS, I’m not say wolves/preds do not play a part……just not as big
Of a role as most claim…… they are an easy blame tool

Of 52 Mule Deer mortalities studied in the Okanogan during the Predator Prey Project - 22 were predation... 

Not sure if you argree/disagree with my post?
But it proves my point. Lets do some math.....

So 42% of the study animals were killed by predators, that leaves 58% killed/died by other means. Not the "sky is falling" numbers some would like you to believe.

Why is blackjack a predominant game at gambling casinos?  Simple, the odds are in the favor of the house.
The basic odds of winning a hand of blackjack as a player are guess what? 42%

Guess we all need to be playing BJ to get rich. It's working for the predators.

 42% by predators, break down the other 58%!…or are you suggesting the rest is a single cause?

 My guess is 42% is the majority.

You guys are quoting a research project that was done by anti-hunters. LoL 😂.
The fact that they can't recover collars that gives a GPS location.
Doesn't raise a red flag. 
Put that collar on a dead wolf. 100 percent guaranteed they find it.
Sometimes you can't BS ,A person who is full of BS.
Data from that project is evil bro.