The ridiculousness of the Methow Valley and Mule deer

[wolfbait]

First I wouldn't place any value on anything WDFW have to say, or their studies.

Since wolves, I have come across several cougar killed deer where the wolves drove the cat off their kill--cougar has to go kill another, this is winter of course. And I have ridden through ambush areas where deer travel from alfalfa fields or cross roads and found dead deer all over the place with just their rib cage torn into. In 2008 we fed over 100 head with our broncs, there were quite a few late fawns, one night a big cat came through and killed 7 never ate on any of them.

While we are all discussing how many deer the cougars kill, add bear in the fawning grounds, now there is a slaughter you don't want to ride through. Coyotes kill their fair share, and when the snow crusts up it gets really bad. Now add wolves, they kill in any environment, that's what they are made for. Charles Kay said that when wolves start in on deer, they kill them so fast you don't have time for studies, and I would take his word over any of those running WDFW.

I see the hunters are starting to flood into the Methow for a few weeks of camping. My guess is scott fitkin will run to the paper with the same deer report after hunting season-For the amount of hunters that showed up, hunting was a great success!

Meanwhile back in dream world, there will still be those that believe uncontrolled predators are not the main reason there are so few deer....

[hunter399]

 I mean if you guys wanna quote the numbers as a baseline or for giggles.Dont let me stop the conversation.
At the same time,I wouldn't get into a heated debate over it.
Or take it too seriously.

That's all I'm adding.
Logging out for a bit.

[timberfaller]

I'll throw this little tidbit into the debate!  The Game Warden way back in the day when I had to deal with the west side tribes members coming over to the Valley killing deer everywhere they could.  Informed me on our last outing he couldn't help me if they came again and they did!

Anyway, what he told me while I was out and about with him, was that the department was going down the road that their biologist were going to be running the show.  Those out in the "brush" seeing with their own eyes what was happening on a daily basis, were going to be looked at as "non-essential information"!  They don't know what they are talking about, they are just enforcers!!

I see Wally World is starting to see the light that, just because you have a degree from college, doesn't make one "fit" for the job!!

[mcrawfordaf]

I wouldn't take that estimate of cougars killing a deer every two weeks. Like it's wrote in stone.

It is an estimate but one that many sources including WDFW confirm. "Every 7 to 12 days" would equate to between 30 and 52 killed per year.

https://wdfw.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2019-03/Cougar%20Brochure.pdf

"Cougars’ principal prey includes deer and elk, but they also catch prey as small as deer mice. Other prey includes coyotes, rabbits, rodents, raccoons, beaver, and infrequently, pets and livestock. Usually a cougar kills only one large animal at a time and kills one deer-sized prey every 7 to 12 days."

Exactly LOL.
That estimate only works out if there is 52 deer in that habitat for a cougar to kill.
I live in the predator pit,ring of predators if you will.
They will scratch out a living on anything,till the next round of fawns hit the ground.
Just like tag soup for hunters,cougar is not gonna kill that many deer a year if they don't exist.
Just depends on the habitat, current deer population,human interaction between the two.
Anything WDFW tells ya,you gotta take that with a grain of salt.
In a very rich deer habitat,they probably will kill that many deer a year,I agree. If the ungulate population can support it. If it can't support it,than the estimate is wrong.
I'll give an example...
Trail cams where I live. Every cam that has a big buck,or a very good deer population,will always have a cat on the camera.
Areas with very low deer population may still have a cat on it,they will look unhealthy,skinny,overall hungry looking.
But they will still scratch out a living. Just not on deer.
Another trend I noticed in very low ungulate areas.
A cat will take all the fawns first,you will see fawns spring and early summer. Then by fall about this time,no fawns or yearling at all.
Only adult deer,I'm not talking about them losing there spots.
I'm saying they are gone. But that cougar will leave a few deer.
So it can eat it's fawns the next year.

I guess the point I'm making,is that estimate from WDFW,only works if there is enough deer to support it.
There are spots where I live,you would never see 52 deer a year on public land. So how can they eat that many.

It sounds like you're describing low deer numbers and high cougar numbers in your "predator pit"...

"3. We suspect that cougar predation can keep a prey population at an unnaturally
low density (a “predator pit”).
Holling (1959) demonstrated that additive mortality due to predation could interact
with density-dependent prey dynamics (Figure 2.2) to create either 1 or 2 stable
equilibrium densities for the prey population. The theoretical basis is strong, and it is
plausible that such dynamics exist for some predator-prey systems. In vertebrate predator-
prey systems, the higher equilibrium (near but somewhat below the carrying capacity
set by food resources) is considered the natural state of affairs, but following a catastrophe
(such as severe winter weather, drought, a tornado, a disease epidemic, or isolation
of a population segment by a freeway), mortality from predation can, in theory at least,
keep prey at an equilibrium far below food-based
K – a situation referred to as a “predator
pit” (Haber 1977, Bergerud et al. 1983, Messier 1994).
Predator pits have been postulated to occur for caribou (Rangifer tarandus) interacting
with wolves in Alaska (Ballard et al. 1997), for moose interacting with wolves
(Messier 1994), for pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) interacting with coyotes (Dunbar
et al. 1999), for wild horses (Equus caballus) interacting with cougars in Nevada (Turner
et al. 1992), and for bighorn sheep interacting with cougars in California (Hayes et al.
2000, Schaefer et al. 2000) and Arizona (Kamler et al. 2002). In addition, cougar
predation caused the near extinction of porcupines in a Nevada basin (Sweitzer et al.
1997). We believe that some of these situations probably do represent predator pits.
However, we caution that the existence of a 2-equilibrium system has never been
demonstrated in nature or in the laboratory. Many, perhaps all, unmanaged ungulate predator
systems could have a single equilibrium prey density (Messier 1994)."

[2MANY]

I'll throw this little tidbit into the debate!  The Game Warden way back in the day when I had to deal with the west side tribes members coming over to the Valley killing deer everywhere they could.  Informed me on our last outing he couldn't help me if they came again and they did!

Anyway, what he told me while I was out and about with him, was that the department was going down the road that their biologist were going to be running the show.  Those out in the "brush" seeing with their own eyes what was happening on a daily basis, were going to be looked at as "non-essential information"!  They don't know what they are talking about, they are just enforcers!!

I see Wally World is starting to see the light that, just because you have a degree from college, doesn't make one "fit" for the job!!

The educated idiots from another state are now running the clown show.
Real book smart types with zero practical experience or time in the saddle.

[wafisherman]

I spent a lot of time in that area this summer (been coming here off and on for over a decade).  The fire damage the last few years has been terrible. We did some hiking in the back country and some fishing.  In one weekend, we saw 2 bears and a cougar - no deer other than those near the towns/private property.  Went back twice in the last month scouting for deer while grouse hunting. Grouse hunting was decent. My favorite spots were burned out in 2021, so looked for new areas.  My kids got handful of grouse and a rabbit.  Lots of bear and other predator scat.  Very little deer sign.  Not even doe and fawn droppings.  Some tracks here and there. In one area we found some huge but very old buck droppings.  But in 8 days (combining the outings) - not one deer spotted in the various backcountry spots we drove or hiked - higher elevations to the valleys below.  May end up heading to my buddies place near Colville for whitetail, but they have been hit hard be predators as well.  Maybe it's time to get serious about blacktail...

[huntnphool]

I'll throw this little tidbit into the debate!  The Game Warden way back in the day when I had to deal with the west side tribes members coming over to the Valley killing deer everywhere they could.  Informed me on our last outing he couldn't help me if they came again and they did!

Anyway, what he told me while I was out and about with him, was that the department was going down the road that their biologist were going to be running the show.  Those out in the "brush" seeing with their own eyes what was happening on a daily basis, were going to be looked at as "non-essential information"!  They don't know what they are talking about, they are just enforcers!!

I see Wally World is starting to see the light that, just because you have a degree from college, doesn't make one "fit" for the job!!

 Sig?

[mountainman]

I'll throw this little tidbit into the debate!  The Game Warden way back in the day when I had to deal with the west side tribes members coming over to the Valley killing deer everywhere they could.  Informed me on our last outing he couldn't help me if they came again and they did!

Anyway, what he told me while I was out and about with him, was that the department was going down the road that their biologist were going to be running the show.  Those out in the "brush" seeing with their own eyes what was happening on a daily basis, were going to be looked at as "non-essential information"!  They don't know what they are talking about, they are just enforcers!!

I see Wally World is starting to see the light that, just because you have a degree from college, doesn't make one "fit" for the job!!

 Sig?

Yes Sig
They cleaned slot of deer Rendevous thru Fawn creek in those years sadly

[huntnphool]

I'll throw this little tidbit into the debate!  The Game Warden way back in the day when I had to deal with the west side tribes members coming over to the Valley killing deer everywhere they could.  Informed me on our last outing he couldn't help me if they came again and they did!

Anyway, what he told me while I was out and about with him, was that the department was going down the road that their biologist were going to be running the show.  Those out in the "brush" seeing with their own eyes what was happening on a daily basis, were going to be looked at as "non-essential information"!  They don't know what they are talking about, they are just enforcers!!

I see Wally World is starting to see the light that, just because you have a degree from college, doesn't make one "fit" for the job!!

 Sig?

Yes Sig
They cleaned slot of deer Rendevous thru Fawn creek in those years sadly

 A good man!

[mountainman]

I'll throw this little tidbit into the debate!  The Game Warden way back in the day when I had to deal with the west side tribes members coming over to the Valley killing deer everywhere they could.  Informed me on our last outing he couldn't help me if they came again and they did!

Anyway, what he told me while I was out and about with him, was that the department was going down the road that their biologist were going to be running the show.  Those out in the "brush" seeing with their own eyes what was happening on a daily basis, were going to be looked at as "non-essential information"!  They don't know what they are talking about, they are just enforcers!!

I see Wally World is starting to see the light that, just because you have a degree from college, doesn't make one "fit" for the job!!

 Sig?

Yes Sig
They cleaned slot of deer Rendevous thru Fawn creek in those years sadly

 A good man!

Yes sir!
Worked with him for six months many years ago working a case on a group of poachers. Solid guy ole Sig👍

[buglebrush]

That's because they have the largest year impact on the deer population.

Prove it!

That's not hard to do at all, look at the Lolo elk herd or the Yellowstone after the illegal introduction of wolves. Do you think the wolves only eat elk?

Totally diff ecosystems…. Even so, that does not prove the reason todrop of herd quantity.
Go ahead and keep on drinking the wolf-aid,   Pretty sure you are kegs worth into it so far.

PS, I’m not say wolves/preds do not play a part……just not as big
Of a role as most claim…… they are an easy blame tool

Of 52 Mule Deer mortalities studied in the Okanogan during the Predator Prey Project - 22 were predation... 

Not sure if you argree/disagree with my post?
But it proves my point. Lets do some math.....

So 42% of the study animals were killed by predators, that leaves 58% killed/died by other means. Not the "sky is falling" numbers some would like you to believe.

Why is blackjack a predominant game at gambling casinos?  Simple, the odds are in the favor of the house.
The basic odds of winning a hand of blackjack as a player are guess what? 42%

Guess we all need to be playing BJ to get rich. It's working for the predators.

42% is huge!!!!!   Also, it's insanely huge because we actually could easily do much more predator management.  Take away that 42% and the herd would be in a much better place!  Predation is there year after year.  Bad winters come and go, but overabundant predators never quit not to mention the increased winter kill and fawn deaths due to the stress wolves put on the herds.   

[timberfaller]

  Sig

And ole Cal was a good one too!  Had a long talk with him at the shooting range one evening!    Issue at hand, he said if called to court, he'd have to be a "hostile witness"!  Good man!!

[skagitsteel]

I spent a lot of time in that area this summer (been coming here off and on for over a decade).  The fire damage the last few years has been terrible. We did some hiking in the back country and some fishing.  In one weekend, we saw 2 bears and a cougar - no deer other than those near the towns/private property.  Went back twice in the last month scouting for deer while grouse hunting. Grouse hunting was decent. My favorite spots were burned out in 2021, so looked for new areas.  My kids got handful of grouse and a rabbit.  Lots of bear and other predator scat.  Very little deer sign.  Not even doe and fawn droppings.  Some tracks here and there. In one area we found some huge but very old buck droppings.  But in 8 days (combining the outings) - not one deer spotted in the various backcountry spots we drove or hiked - higher elevations to the valleys below.  May end up heading to my buddies place near Colville for whitetail, but they have been hit hard be predators as well.  Maybe it's time to get serious about blacktail...

Atleast in the NW part of the state blacktail are seeing a similar demise. There are pockets of them here and there but overall numbers around here quite honestly are 1/3 or less of what they were 2016 and prior.  fawn survival near zero in many spots I go.

[NOCK NOCK]

I spent a lot of time in that area this summer (been coming here off and on for over a decade).  The fire damage the last few years has been terrible. We did some hiking in the back country and some fishing.  In one weekend, we saw 2 bears and a cougar - no deer other than those near the towns/private property.  Went back twice in the last month scouting for deer while grouse hunting. Grouse hunting was decent. My favorite spots were burned out in 2021, so looked for new areas.  My kids got handful of grouse and a rabbit.  Lots of bear and other predator scat.  Very little deer sign.  Not even doe and fawn droppings.  Some tracks here and there. In one area we found some huge but very old buck droppings.  But in 8 days (combining the outings) - not one deer spotted in the various backcountry spots we drove or hiked - higher elevations to the valleys below.  May end up heading to my buddies place near Colville for whitetail, but they have been hit hard be predators as well.  Maybe it's time to get serious about blacktail...

Atleast in the NW part of the state blacktail are seeing a similar demise. There are pockets of them here and there but overall numbers around here quite honestly are 1/3 or less of what they were 2016 and prior.  fawn survival near zero in many spots I go.

That brings up a good point. Not familiar with your area, but fairly sure wolves have little to no part in the decline.
The Entiat herd is failing drastically too. Wolves are much newer to that herd than the Methow(at least in quantity) so the wolves only seem to be part of the equation. I spend ALOT of time in the Entiat, never seen a wolf yet(tracks only) have been seeing fewer bears, and sign of them, and well cougars, I get the same amount on cams that I have for the last 15 years.

Yes, 42% is huge, but it’s only part of the problem.

How many years now has the Methow herd been hurting? The “predator pit” ideology can not have the preds multiplying exponentially if there is no main continual food source (deer/elk/moose)

All I’m trying to say is that statistically , preds May be the biggest piece of the pie in kills, but a death is a death, however it occurs. If you take all the other pieces of the pie and combine them, they are far worse for our ungulates.
Every one wants to blame the preds, but with our current admin and public sentiment, gonna be nearly impossible to change hounds/baiting/wolf hunting. If more folks would concentrate on the pieces of pie we can change……it would go a long ways in helping the herds.

[NOCK NOCK]

https://www.deeranddeerhunting.com/content/blogs/dan-schmidt-deer-blog-whitetail-wisdom/what-kills-the-most-deer-in-a-year#:~:text=The%20answer%20isn't%20cut,wreak%20havoc%20on%20deer%20herds.

Interesting read, all though it pertains to just whitetail.