The ridiculousness of the Methow Valley and Mule deer

[Skyvalhunter]

There was a time when the deer population in the Methow wa robust that many deer were hit on the highway. Not so anymore. In 2009 which was one of the high years ( from 2000 to 2017) 167 deer were killed. Now that deer kill board isn't maintained and shows 20 something all the time. Predator kills way out number that. Deer also learn to avoid traffic.
 Even to this day when you go out the deer that aren't so called "valley deer" are on alert at all times due to predator population. In the past 10 years I have noticed that even when feeding they constantly pull their head up looking around. They are a lot more spooky now and flight at the littlest thing. This has an impact on their reproduction rate.

[Bob33]

https://www.deeranddeerhunting.com/content/blogs/dan-schmidt-deer-blog-whitetail-wisdom/what-kills-the-most-deer-in-a-year#:~:text=The%20answer%20isn't%20cut,wreak%20havoc%20on%20deer%20herds.

Interesting read, all though it pertains to just whitetail.

Using the numbers quoted in that article results in 25 deer killed per cougar per year. Multiplying 25 by the 3,000 cougars in Washington is 75,000 deer killed by cougars. Washington hunters reporting killing 21,000 deer in 2022.

[Humptulips]

This formula of a cougar killing a deer a week is too simplistic. My Father had hounds and I started going with him chasing cats in the 60s. He had been at it since the 40s. I later took to trapping so I have seen a lot of cougar kills over the years. My Father had a theory about cats and with my observations I have pretty well embraced it.
When a cougar makes a kill, it fills up and then goes off to lay up and digest. When it gets up it goes hunting. If it kills something it never goes back to the first kill. If it is unsuccessful, it goes back and eats more. Rinse and repeat. I have seen quite a few cougar kills with only one feed taken off them and others almost totally consumed. For those reasons I think in higher ungulate populations cougars kill a lot more than once a week. In lower populations it could be less than once a week. Plus, they kill other stuff. Our prey population on the Peninsula has suffered across the board. I especially notice beaver as I am a trapper.
Bottom line, what has changed that I see in my area over the last 60 years? Not habitat, not bad winters, not excess human activity. What has changed is a massive increase in cougar and to a lesser extent bear. Deer, elk, beaver all way down. When did that trend towards reduced prey numbers happen? It started in the 80s when they went to managing the cougar population with draw tags and accelerated in the 2000s after hounds were out of the picture.
I'm not sure what is so hard to understand about this. Cougar numbers are above the carrying capacity. If you add in other predators, one could say predators carrying capacity has been exceeded. Accepting this and doing something about it is unfortunately a political choice.

[NOCK NOCK]

https://www.deeranddeerhunting.com/content/blogs/dan-schmidt-deer-blog-whitetail-wisdom/what-kills-the-most-deer-in-a-year#:~:text=The%20answer%20isn't%20cut,wreak%20havoc%20on%20deer%20herds.

Interesting read, all though it pertains to just whitetail.

Using the numbers quoted in that article results in 25 deer killed per cougar per year. Multiplying 25 by the 3,000 cougars in Washington is 75,000 deer killed by cougars. Washington hunters reporting killing 21,000 deer in 2022.

Many variables,
“IF” all 3000 cats killed a deer. What about juveniles? Did they all kill deer too?
“Reported” hunter kills. What about unreported/poaching/tribal/wounded & died not found?
Fire, vehicle, dog running, habitat loss, depredation tags, etc kills, all human caused kills, not just hunting. If we get to lump all preds together, do we not get to lump all human related kills together?



Y’all want to blame everything on the preds, Fact is there are tons of reasons why the herds are hurting.
It’s a complex issue, not just predators.

PS…..curious why nobody screams coyote kills, my guess is they kill way more fawns than bears.

Also, do your part, get out there and kill a cat…..I did.

Have fun hashing this out, I’m out as to not piss off MtMly by “rambling” any more. 

[hunter399]

https://www.deeranddeerhunting.com/content/blogs/dan-schmidt-deer-blog-whitetail-wisdom/what-kills-the-most-deer-in-a-year#:~:text=The%20answer%20isn't%20cut,wreak%20havoc%20on%20deer%20herds.

Interesting read, all though it pertains to just whitetail.

Using the numbers quoted in that article results in 25 deer killed per cougar per year. Multiplying 25 by the 3,000 cougars in Washington is 75,000 deer killed by cougars. Washington hunters reporting killing 21,000 deer in 2022.

Many variables,
“IF” all 3000 cats killed a deer. What about juveniles? Did they all kill deer too?
“Reported” hunter kills. What about unreported/poaching/tribal/wounded & died not found?
Fire, vehicle, dog running, habitat loss, depredation tags, etc kills, all human caused kills, not just hunting. If we get to lump all preds together, do we not get to lump all human related kills together?



Y’all want to blame everything on the preds, Fact is there are tons of reasons why the herds are hurting.
It’s a complex issue, not just predators.

PS…..curious why nobody screams coyote kills, my guess is they kill way more fawns than bears.

Also, do your part, get out there and kill a cat…..I did.

Have fun hashing this out, I’m out as to not piss off MtMly by “rambling” any more. 

I think I was one on here that did say....
"Many contributing factors"reply#128
You forgot winter/starvation kills.
 
It's not "human kill" but in general severe winters do make a huge impact. Female doesn't make it through winter,there never be a fawn dropped.

[hunter399]

I'll throw one factor out.
In part by hunters ,but also predator.
Some might even say climate change,but I don't think so.
Covers mule deer and WT ,maybe BT but I don't hunt them.
Here it is......you guys ready....it's a theory......

Late Born Fawns!

Pressure during mating seasons,by hunters,or too many predators in the environment. Has caused deer evaluation to breed later in the year. Over time ,a lot of time, deer are now breeding later .
In turn ,fawn survival has gone down with fawns born later , year after year.

I'm not biologist,and it would take research and time to prove this theory. But what you all think of this one?

Just remember fawn survival is the key.

[wolfbait]

This formula of a cougar killing a deer a week is too simplistic. My Father had hounds and I started going with him chasing cats in the 60s. He had been at it since the 40s. I later took to trapping so I have seen a lot of cougar kills over the years. My Father had a theory about cats and with my observations I have pretty well embraced it.
When a cougar makes a kill, it fills up and then goes off to lay up and digest. When it gets up it goes hunting. If it kills something it never goes back to the first kill. If it is unsuccessful, it goes back and eats more. Rinse and repeat. I have seen quite a few cougar kills with only one feed taken off them and others almost totally consumed. For those reasons I think in higher ungulate populations cougars kill a lot more than once a week. In lower populations it could be less than once a week. Plus, they kill other stuff. Our prey population on the Peninsula has suffered across the board. I especially notice beaver as I am a trapper.
Bottom line, what has changed that I see in my area over the last 60 years? Not habitat, not bad winters, not excess human activity. What has changed is a massive increase in cougar and to a lesser extent bear. Deer, elk, beaver all way down. When did that trend towards reduced prey numbers happen? It started in the 80s when they went to managing the cougar population with draw tags and accelerated in the 2000s after hounds were out of the picture.
I'm not sure what is so hard to understand about this. Cougar numbers are above the carrying capacity. If you add in other predators, one could say predators carrying capacity has been exceeded. Accepting this and doing something about it is unfortunately a political choice.

 

[huntnphool]

I spent a lot of time in that area this summer (been coming here off and on for over a decade).  The fire damage the last few years has been terrible. We did some hiking in the back country and some fishing.  In one weekend, we saw 2 bears and a cougar - no deer other than those near the towns/private property.  Went back twice in the last month scouting for deer while grouse hunting. Grouse hunting was decent. My favorite spots were burned out in 2021, so looked for new areas.  My kids got handful of grouse and a rabbit.  Lots of bear and other predator scat.  Very little deer sign.  Not even doe and fawn droppings.  Some tracks here and there. In one area we found some huge but very old buck droppings.  But in 8 days (combining the outings) - not one deer spotted in the various backcountry spots we drove or hiked - higher elevations to the valleys below.  May end up heading to my buddies place near Colville for whitetail, but they have been hit hard be predators as well.  Maybe it's time to get serious about blacktail...

Atleast in the NW part of the state blacktail are seeing a similar demise. There are pockets of them here and there but overall numbers around here quite honestly are 1/3 or less of what they were 2016 and prior.  fawn survival near zero in many spots I go.

Not familiar with your area, but fairly sure wolves have little to no part in the decline.

  LMAO, nothing to see here, move along!

[huntnphool]

I spent a lot of time in that area this summer (been coming here off and on for over a decade).  The fire damage the last few years has been terrible. We did some hiking in the back country and some fishing.  In one weekend, we saw 2 bears and a cougar - no deer other than those near the towns/private property.  Went back twice in the last month scouting for deer while grouse hunting. Grouse hunting was decent. My favorite spots were burned out in 2021, so looked for new areas.  My kids got handful of grouse and a rabbit.  Lots of bear and other predator scat.  Very little deer sign.  Not even doe and fawn droppings.  Some tracks here and there. In one area we found some huge but very old buck droppings.  But in 8 days (combining the outings) - not one deer spotted in the various backcountry spots we drove or hiked - higher elevations to the valleys below.  May end up heading to my buddies place near Colville for whitetail, but they have been hit hard be predators as well.  Maybe it's time to get serious about blacktail...

Atleast in the NW part of the state blacktail are seeing a similar demise. There are pockets of them here and there but overall numbers around here quite honestly are 1/3 or less of what they were 2016 and prior.  fawn survival near zero in many spots I go.

All I’m trying to say is that statistically , preds May be the biggest piece of the pie in kills, but a death is a death, however it occurs.

 Oh no, the cause of death is very much the issue!!! You step on your soap box, bloviating your opinion, and doing your best to spin the destruction preds have on the herds, then try to equate car impacts and winter kill? 

 Nice try, everyone here now sees who you are!

 Still waiting for your reply!!!

[NOCK NOCK]

I wouldn't take that estimate of cougars killing a deer every two weeks. Like it's wrote in stone.
I'm sure cougars just like all predators are opportunity based .
Example would be a few,grouse, turkey,rabbit,smaller critters, in-between big game kills.

The predator/prey study.....
Even though the results give some insight to what's going on.
The "unknown factors" really bring it down to inconclusive data.
Example fawn mortality, which is some of the most important data in my opinion. They dropped the ball.
Now if that was just cause they couldn't get that data,or an attempt to protect predators,we will never know.

I'm kinda with nocknock there are many contributed factors bringing mule deer numbers down.
I can't point the finger at predators alone,it may,or may not be number one. Hard to say. The number one cause may be different for certain areas. 
My opinion....
Antlerless harvest and fawn mortality are the only two things that can bring a herd back. If it takes more predator hunting,or less antlerless harvest for hunters. We need to do what's best for our ungulates. Like said above,the "unknown factors" of fawns mortality in the predator/prey project really put that research as a waste of time. I feel they are protecting predators by skewed data.
I think they know what killed those fawns,and didn't want there research effecting predator seasons ect.
Cause if we know the truth about fawn mortality,then predators could be the number one factor. The biologists that did that project didn't want that data revealed.

 


Yes cats are very opportunistic. and hard on the herds. 

Here's a pic from a few years ago. I found 2 very fresh kills within 10 yards of each other, killed the same night. Put cams on them, cat came back and pretty much only ripped out the fetuses and ate them, leaving the does 80% untouched.     

[wolfbait]

We saw the first huge deer herd laying along the highway in the alfalfa field on the Simmons place. 15 years ago there would have been 150 head though out the field, the big herd we saw had 8 deer in it.

[NOCK NOCK]

[quote author=NOCK NOCK link=topic=281805.msg3840341#msg3840341 date=1697201794

"Still waiting for your reply!!! - On what, this?    "Do you think the wolves only eat elk?" Of coarse they eat more than elk, (except only in the Methow.....theres no deer left up there!)

 That wasn’t me.

 

That's because they have the largest year impact on the deer population.

Prove it!

That's not hard to do at all, look at the Lolo elk herd or the Yellowstone after the illegal introduction of wolves. Do you think the wolves only eat elk?

Totally diff ecosystems…. Even so, that does not prove the reason todrop of herd quantity.
Go ahead and keep on drinking the wolf-aid,   Pretty sure you are kegs worth into it so far.

PS, I’m not say wolves/preds do not play a part……just not as big
Of a role as most claim…… they are an easy blame tool

Of 52 Mule Deer mortalities studied in the Okanogan during the Predator Prey Project - 22 were predation... 

Not sure if you argree/disagree with my post?
But it proves my point. Lets do some math.....

So 42% of the study animals were killed by predators, that leaves 58% killed/died by other means. Not the "sky is falling" numbers some would like you to believe.

Why is blackjack a predominant game at gambling casinos?  Simple, the odds are in the favor of the house.
The basic odds of winning a hand of blackjack as a player are guess what? 42%

Guess we all need to be playing BJ to get rich. It's working for the predators.

 42% by predators, break down the other 58%!…or are you suggesting the rest is a single cause?

 My guess is 42% is the majority.

 Still waiting for your reply!

 Try to keep up.
[/quote]





1. Not playing your game anymore
2. I apologize for calling you a name.

[huntnphool]

[quote author=NOCK NOCK link=topic=281805.msg3840341#msg3840341 date=1697201794

"Still waiting for your reply!!! - On what, this?    "Do you think the wolves only eat elk?" Of coarse they eat more than elk, (except only in the Methow.....theres no deer left up there!)

 That wasn’t me.

 

That's because they have the largest year impact on the deer population.

Prove it!

That's not hard to do at all, look at the Lolo elk herd or the Yellowstone after the illegal introduction of wolves. Do you think the wolves only eat elk?

Totally diff ecosystems…. Even so, that does not prove the reason todrop of herd quantity.
Go ahead and keep on drinking the wolf-aid,   Pretty sure you are kegs worth into it so far.

PS, I’m not say wolves/preds do not play a part……just not as big
Of a role as most claim…… they are an easy blame tool

Of 52 Mule Deer mortalities studied in the Okanogan during the Predator Prey Project - 22 were predation... 

Not sure if you argree/disagree with my post?
But it proves my point. Lets do some math.....

So 42% of the study animals were killed by predators, that leaves 58% killed/died by other means. Not the "sky is falling" numbers some would like you to believe.

Why is blackjack a predominant game at gambling casinos?  Simple, the odds are in the favor of the house.
The basic odds of winning a hand of blackjack as a player are guess what? 42%

Guess we all need to be playing BJ to get rich. It's working for the predators.

 42% by predators, break down the other 58%!…or are you suggesting the rest is a single cause?

 My guess is 42% is the majority.

 Still waiting for your reply!

 Try to keep up.

1. Not playing your game anymore
2. I apologize for calling you a name.
[/quote]

 I’m not playing a game, simply waiting for you to answer, it’s really not that complicated….unless you can’t?

[NOCK NOCK]

I can answer ANY question you throw at me.......I am choosing not to.   

Have a great day!

[huntnphool]

I can answer ANY question you throw at me.

 Uh huh, clearly.