Point Creep

[Bean Counter]

I'm an educated man but don't seem to have figured this concept out. Can someone please explain it to me like I'm 6 because I still don't get it. Maybe a short example?

Thanks.

[Halo]

It's like a marathon that when you see the finish line they keep moving it another half mile further until you're just walking down the road cussing and kicking rocks. 

[vandeman17]

very simple idea is that each year the "value" of a point decreases and thus each year, even though you gain a point, your odds don't increase at the same rate.

[Bean Counter]

It's like a marathon that when you see the finish line they keep moving it another half mile further until you're just walking down the road cussing and kicking rocks. 

Please sir, can I have another? 

[cbond3318]

It's like a marathon that when you see the finish line they keep moving it another half mile further until you're just walking down the road cussing and kicking rocks. 

This actually made very good sense to me! 

[Woodchuck]

 

[Ridgerunner]

very simple idea is that each year the "value" of a point decreases and thus each year, even though you gain a point, your odds don't increase at the same rate.

Well said, perhaps you are applying for a tag that took 5 points to draw the first year, the next year it takes 6, or 8 whatever the demand drives it up to.  That is point creep where the "finish" line keeps getting moved and it feels like you wont reach it.   

We dont really have point creep here due to our draw process but other states like Colorado definately do. 

[Bean Counter]

very simple idea is that each year the "value" of a point decreases and thus each year, even though you gain a point, your odds don't increase at the same rate.

So its about diminishing returns to scale? Add a point this year and next year I have X% better odds, but then add a point next year and the following year I only have +0.75X% marginally better odds?

If I saw a spreadsheet I'm sure my disturbed mind could make sense of it. Then it would be simple enough for a Bean Counter to understand 

[3nails]

It's like a marathon that when you see the finish line they keep moving it another half mile further until you're just walking down the road cussing and kicking rocks. 

That sums it up pretty darn good!     

[Ridgerunner]

BC, you're a CPA its not that hard to figure out. 

[Bean Counter]

Well said, perhaps you are applying for a tag that took 5 points to draw the first year, the next year it takes 6, or 8 whatever the demand drives it up to.  That is point creep where the "finish" line keeps getting moved and it feels like you wont reach it.   

This is my understanding... but I don't understand how it works. I guess I just look at it as standing in line at Costco for a hot dog. More people might get behind me in the points game, but theoretically people shouldn't be cutting in front of me in point totals. . 

[Bean Counter]

BC, you're a CPA its not that hard to figure out.

A guy in a bar leans over to the guy next to him and says, "Want to hear an accountant joke?"

The guy next to him replies, "Well, before you tell that joke, you should know that I'm 6 feet tall, 200 pounds, and I'm an accountant. And the guy sitting next to me is 6'2" tall, 225 pounds, and he's an accountant. Now, do you still want to tell that joke?"

The first guy says, "No, I don't want to have to explain it two times." 

[Jonathan_S]

Year 1:  Everybody has 1 point.
Year 2:  Everybody has 2 points except the guy who drew in Year 1
Year 3:  Everybody has 3 points except the guys who drew previously
And so on and so forth

The number of applicants will never be met by the number of tags given.  The average points used only increases on a yearly basis.

It's really about getting lucky.  Points are deceiving.

[vandeman17]

very simple idea is that each year the "value" of a point decreases and thus each year, even though you gain a point, your odds don't increase at the same rate.

So its about diminishing returns to scale? Add a point this year and next year I have X% better odds, but then add a point next year and the following year I only have +0.75X% marginally better odds?

If I saw a spreadsheet I'm sure my disturbed mind could make sense of it. Then it would be simple enough for a Bean Counter to understand 

Precisely! I am an econ major and work in finance so I know what you mean 

[Ridgerunner]

People jump in front of you if they have been buying points only and then decide to put in for a unit.  If I have 10 points becuase I've been saving them and then decide to use them on a unit that last year only took 7, I'm driving the # of points up to draw that unit, if enough people do that then you get point creep. 

[Bean Counter]

People jump in front of you if they have been buying points only and then decide to put in for a unit.  If I have 10 points becuase I've been saving them and then decide to use them on a unit that last year only took 7, I'm driving the # of points up to draw that unit, if enough people do that then you get point creep.

 

[cbond3318]

Well said, perhaps you are applying for a tag that took 5 points to draw the first year, the next year it takes 6, or 8 whatever the demand drives it up to.  That is point creep where the "finish" line keeps getting moved and it feels like you wont reach it.   

This is my understanding... but I don't understand how it works. I guess I just look at it as standing in line at Costco for a hot dog. More people might get behind me in the points game, but theoretically people shouldn't be cutting in front of me in point totals. . 

Except the line is side to side not front to back and the guy serving hot dogs randomly picks someone and gives them a hotdog. More people in the line the more options for him. Oh and don't bother trying to wear a brightly colored shirt  cause he is blind....

[soccerguy]

BC, you're a CPA its not that hard to figure out.

That's me!!! But still very frustrating.  Oregon and Colorado are the worst.

[Ridgerunner]

Lots of us bean counters on here. 

[WAcoueshunter]

Point Creep?  I thought that's what my Brittany does when she can't hold the point?   


Pretty simple, demand exceeds supply, so the number of points it takes to draw from one year to the next "creeps" up.  They need another term for places like the Strip where the increase from one year to the next in points required is much more than a little creep. 

[JimmyHoffa]

Think of it as the inflation of the permit world.  Your 6 points this year get you what 5 points got you a couple years ago.  But if too many people get in the game, you'd need 8 points or more next year but could only get 7 by then.

[Bigshooter]

Take for example NW CO.  There are a couple of highly sought after units up there for elk that give out very few tags.  The first year they start a pt system everyone has 1pt.  They give out 10 tags for the unit and 1000 people apply.  So the first year 10 people draw with 1 pt.  The 2nd year 10 people draw with 2 pts.  The 3rd year 10 people draw with 3pts.  Fast forward to year 20 and now 10 people draw with 20pts.  That is pt creep.  To me pt creep only happens in a preference pt system.

Pt creep also happens when guys who have been buying pts only jump into the draw all at once.  This usually happens when dates change for the better.

[idahohuntr]

Point creep is at play in WA as well.  For example, in 2012, if you applied for a quality deer Entiat MF tag with 10pts your odds were approximately 2%.  In 2014, with 10 points for the same hunt your odds were 1%.  Now here is the kicker...the guy with 10 pts in 2012 had 2% draw odds, in 2014 with 12pts, his odds of drawing the tag are 1.5% As more "points" are added to the system your odds go down and the value of each point diminishes at a rate greater than your individual increase in points/odds.

The bottom line here is that point systems are 110% a ponzi scheme.  You get in on the base level or you are SOL.  And really, even those on the base level are fighting a losing game.  One last bit of advice...never invest or do business with anyone who has something positive to say about point systems 

[Bob33]

It happens in Washington to applicants at the upper ends of the points spectrum because of the large number of applicants at the lower end.

Here's an exaggerated example: For a high quality hunt, there may be 100 applicants with 20 points. Each one has 400 names in the hat. They have a total of 8000 names in the hat. There may be 1000 applicants with 1 point. They have a total of 1000 points in the hat. Combined there are 9000 names in the hat.

Next year, the 100 applicants with 20 points have 21 so they each have 442 names in the hat. That's a total of 8840 names, an increase of about 10%. The 1000 applicants that had 1 point now have 2 points, so each has 4 names in the hat. Together they have 4000 names, an increase of 300%. Their disproportionate increase "swamps" the slight increase that those at the upper end had.

Those at the lower end of points distribution usually do have an increase in draw odds from year to year, while those at the upper end usually experience a slight decrease from year to year.

[kentrek]

Idk if some of you have noticed but application numbers fluctuate up and down from year to year Givin a certain tag So doing your draw odds for one unit doesn't really prove anything

So some units your odds get better and others get worse...the only way total odds (all draw units) get worse is to increase total hunters while keeping the same amount of draws available

at that point the moon and Saturn get affected by the gravitational pull of Pluto to result great than average rains in California reducing the overall total harvest in the methow valleys deer heard increasing total hunters and thus decreasing our overall odds

Pretty simple really


 

[Bigshooter]

Bonus systems don't have pt creep.  Call it what you want, maybe pt devalue but it is not pt creep.  You can draw with 1pt or a hundred pts in a bonus system.  You have to have the most pts to draw in a preference pt system.

[WAcoueshunter]

Bonus systems don't have pt creep.  Call it what you want, maybe pt devalue but it is not pt creep.  You can draw with 1pt or a hundred pts in a bonus system.  You have to have the most pts to draw in a preference pt system.

Depends on the way you look at it.  If the average points required to draw goes from 5 to 6 to 7, I still call that point creep.  It's the same issue - demand exceeds supply and each year it's harder and harder to draw - just applied in a different draw mechanism. 

[grundy53]

Bonus systems don't have pt creep.  Call it what you want, maybe pt devalue but it is not pt creep.  You can draw with 1pt or a hundred pts in a bonus system.  You have to have the most pts to draw in a preference pt system.

Depends on the way you look at it.  If the average points required to draw goes from 5 to 6 to 7, I still call that point creep.  It's the same issue - demand exceeds supply and each year it's harder and harder to draw - just applied in a different draw mechanism.

Remember every year that the average points go up they are squared, not added.

[X-Force]

Point creep = Idaho looks better and better every year. No points, only put in for 1oil or elk and deer, money up front so no one backs out.

[grundy53]

Point creep = Idaho looks better and better every year. No points, only put in for 1oil or elk and deer, money up front so no one backs out.

I agree.

[Bigshooter]

Bonus systems don't have pt creep.  Call it what you want, maybe pt devalue but it is not pt creep.  You can draw with 1pt or a hundred pts in a bonus system.  You have to have the most pts to draw in a preference pt system.

Depends on the way you look at it.  If the average points required to draw goes from 5 to 6 to 7, I still call that point creep.  It's the same issue - demand exceeds supply and each year it's harder and harder to draw - just applied in a different draw mechanism.

When an average pt gets you a tag I will consider it pt creep.  But when a person can draw with any amount of pts (Less than the average or more than the average) I don't see how it can be considered pt creep.

[idahohuntr]

Semantics.  The principle issue is that your odds or frequency of getting a tag continue to diminish.

[Romulous]

I did not read the entire thread. But do you realize this issue of point creep does not exist in Colorado so far as sheep goat and moose are concerned. Somebody challenge me on it and I might post the article explaining how the draw is different in Colorado for sheep goat and moose. Step 1. In a barn somewhere 10 digits 0-9 are hung on a wall. Step 2. Another set of digits 0-9 are selected one at a time. Pause for example. Step 1. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 are hung on a wall in order. Step 2. Some randomly picks a digit from a second set. Perhaps they pick the digit 3. Then the digit three gets hung under the 0 digit from step 1. Perhaps the next digit randomly drawn from step 2 is a 7. Then 7 gets hung under the digit 1 from step 1. So on and so forth.  End example. Step 3. Your application number is coded  by converting your app number to a new app number using the sequencing process in steps 1 and 2. For example if your app number was 37xxxxxxxx then your decoded app number would be 01xxxxxxxx. Step 4. Your decoded app number is reversed. For example. xxxxxxxx10. Step 5. The number generated in step 4 is divided by the number of preference points you have. Step 6. The lowest number after step 6 gets the tag. Let me know if you want me to reference the article.


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[Bigshooter]

Semantics.  The principle issue is that your odds or frequency of getting a tag continue to diminish.

You odds never change in a preference pt system they are 0% until you have enough pts to draw.  So in a preference pt system your odds get better.  Pt creep just adds a couple years on to how many pts you need until you draw.  It's nothing like a bonus pt system where you can draw with fewer pts than what the average pts draw are.  Those average pts draw numbers are fools gold.  They are some of the reason why people get mad that they didn't draw in a bonus pt system.

When those average pts in WA guarantee me a tag then I will consider it pt creep.  But when someone can draw with less than the averge pts it isn't pt creep. 

[Bigshooter]

I did not read the entire thread. But do you realize this issue of point creep does not exist in Colorado so far as sheep goat and moose are concerned. Somebody challenge me on it and I might post the article explaining how the draw is different in Colorado for sheep goat and moose. Step 1. In a barn somewhere 10 digits 0-9 are hung on a wall. Step 2. Another set of digits 0-9 are selected one at a time. Pause for example. Step 1. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 are hung on a wall in order. Step 2. Some randomly picks a digit from a second set. Perhaps they pick the digit 3. Then the digit three gets hung under the 0 digit from step 1. Perhaps the next digit randomly drawn from step 2 is a 7. Then 7 gets hung under the digit 1 from step 1. So on and so forth.  End example. Step 3. Your application number is coded  by converting your app number to a new app number using the sequencing process in steps 1 and 2. For example if your app number was 37xxxxxxxx then your decoded app number would be 01xxxxxxxx. Step 4. Your decoded app number is reversed. For example. xxxxxxxx10. Step 5. The number generated in step 4 is divided by the number of preference points you have. Step 6. The lowest number after step 6 gets the tag. Let me know if you want me to reference the article.


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CO OIL tags are a whole different ballgame.
What you just painfully described is how numbers get generate in all bonus pt systems to the best of my knowledge.  Whoever gets the lowest generated number gets the tag.
 In CO for OIL tags you apply with 0% chance of drawing the first 3 years.  Then starting year 4 it is a bonus pt system like you explained.

[Sitka_Blacktail]

Semantics.  The principle issue is that your odds or frequency of getting a tag continue to diminish.

And they continue to diminish while the perception is that they actually increase.  I liked the old days when you could put in for one draw per species. You had to do some choosing then, but your odds of getting drawn were way better. Some of the draws today get way more action than they would because you can put in for each category of each species. If you had to choose between quality buck, doe, any season, second deer, or buck deer tags, plus you only got to make one choice as far as hunt in whatever category you put in for, a lot of the draws become less popular and were fairly easy draws.

Preference point systems weren't put in place to make it easier for hunters to draw. They were put in to make you perceive it was easier to get drawn with the real reason of making more money for the State. It's as simple as that.  They appeal to your greed (ie making you think points give you an advantage) while slipping your wallet out of your back pocket. This works the same way all good cons do.

[Bigshooter]

I just thought of something. 

 If a unit in WA gave out 1 tag.  And you had guys applying for it with pt totals from 1 - 25 the first year, with the biggest number increasing by one the next year.  And every year a guy drew the tag with 3 pts.  Is that pt creep? 

[Bigshooter]

Semantics.  The principle issue is that your odds or frequency of getting a tag continue to diminish.

And they continue to diminish while the perception is that they actually increase.  I liked the old days when you could put in for one draw per species. You had to do some choosing then, but your odds of getting drawn were way better. Some of the draws today get way more action than they would because you can put in for each category of each species. If you had to choose between quality buck, doe, any season, second deer, or buck deer tags, plus you only got to make one choice as far as hunt in whatever category you put in for, a lot of the draws become less popular and were fairly easy draws.

Preference point systems weren't put in place to make it easier for hunters to draw. They were put in to make you perceive it was easier to get drawn with the real reason of making more money for the State. It's as simple as that.  They appeal to your greed (ie making you think points give you an advantage) while slipping your wallet out of your back pocket. This works the same way all good cons do.

This diminished odds thing is a WA thing.  If you looke at NV where they have a bonus pt system.  Each year that you gain a pt the next year (unless there was a big tag cut) your odds increase from the previous year.  The reason being is that they give out a lot more tags that removes guys with pts out of the system then replaces them with guys with a lot less pts the next year.  In 2014 23 pts was the most pts you could have in NV.  The most pts that anyone applied with for deer was 12.  NV has enough tags to get guys in and out of the system farily quickly unlike WA.  You just can't compare WA to any other state. 

[bobcat]

Yeah, that's because Nevada does not have general seasons. If you don't draw, you don't hunt. That's why they can afford to have more tags in the draw. So in Nevada it does seem like it makes sense to use a point system. But here, I think we'd be better off without it.

[grundy53]

Semantics.  The principle issue is that your odds or frequency of getting a tag continue to diminish.

And they continue to diminish while the perception is that they actually increase.  I liked the old days when you could put in for one draw per species. You had to do some choosing then, but your odds of getting drawn were way better. Some of the draws today get way more action than they would because you can put in for each category of each species. If you had to choose between quality buck, doe, any season, second deer, or buck deer tags, plus you only got to make one choice as far as hunt in whatever category you put in for, a lot of the draws become less popular and were fairly easy draws.

Preference point systems weren't put in place to make it easier for hunters to draw. They were put in to make you perceive it was easier to get drawn with the real reason of making more money for the State. It's as simple as that.  They appeal to your greed (ie making you think points give you an advantage) while slipping your wallet out of your back pocket. This works the same way all good cons do.

[Bob33]

In our bonus point system draw odds do increase from year to year for those in the lower point tiers such as 1 to 10 points. Going from year 1 to year 2, names in the hat increases from one to four. Those at the upper ends experience a slight decrease. The problem is that if you don't get in or stay in the game your odds are between zero and worse.

[actionshooter]

Semantics.  The principle issue is that your odds or frequency of getting a tag continue to diminish.

You odds never change in a preference pt system they are 0% until you have enough pts to draw.  So in a preference pt system your odds get better.  Pt creep just adds a couple years on to how many pts you need until you draw.  It's nothing like a bonus pt system where you can draw with fewer pts than what the average pts draw are.  Those average pts draw numbers are fools gold.  They are some of the reason why people get mad that they didn't draw in a bonus pt system.

When those average pts in WA guarantee me a tag then I will consider it pt creep.  But when someone can draw with less than the averge pts it isn't pt creep. 

This is right on the money, true "point creep" only happens in states where you are guaranteed a tag if you have enough points to "buy" (for lack of a better word) the tag.

 In Wyoming if it takes 4 points to obtain a tag for a specific draw everyone who put in with 4 points or more will draw that tag until there are more people with 4 (or more) points putting in than tags available.

 Its frustrating when you have your eyes on a tag and the required points go up.

[pd]

Point creep is at play in WA as well.  For example, in 2012, if you applied for a quality deer Entiat MF tag with 10pts your odds were approximately 2%.  In 2014, with 10 points for the same hunt your odds were 1%.  Now here is the kicker...the guy with 10 pts in 2012 had 2% draw odds, in 2014 with 12pts, his odds of drawing the tag are 1.5% As more "points" are added to the system your odds go down and the value of each point diminishes at a rate greater than your individual increase in points/odds.

The bottom line here is that point systems are 110% a ponzi scheme.  You get in on the base level or you are SOL.  And really, even those on the base level are fighting a losing game.  One last bit of advice...never invest or do business with anyone who has something positive to say about point systems 

Best explanation that I've read.