Free: Contests & Raffles.
It's like a marathon that when you see the finish line they keep moving it another half mile further until you're just walking down the road cussing and kicking rocks.
very simple idea is that each year the "value" of a point decreases and thus each year, even though you gain a point, your odds don't increase at the same rate.
Well said, perhaps you are applying for a tag that took 5 points to draw the first year, the next year it takes 6, or 8 whatever the demand drives it up to. That is point creep where the "finish" line keeps getting moved and it feels like you wont reach it.
BC, you're a CPA its not that hard to figure out.
Quote from: vandeman17 on April 10, 2015, 02:40:21 PMvery simple idea is that each year the "value" of a point decreases and thus each year, even though you gain a point, your odds don't increase at the same rate.So its about diminishing returns to scale? Add a point this year and next year I have X% better odds, but then add a point next year and the following year I only have +0.75X% marginally better odds? If I saw a spreadsheet I'm sure my disturbed mind could make sense of it. Then it would be simple enough for a Bean Counter to understand
People jump in front of you if they have been buying points only and then decide to put in for a unit. If I have 10 points becuase I've been saving them and then decide to use them on a unit that last year only took 7, I'm driving the # of points up to draw that unit, if enough people do that then you get point creep.
Quote from: Ridgerunner on April 10, 2015, 02:49:36 PMWell said, perhaps you are applying for a tag that took 5 points to draw the first year, the next year it takes 6, or 8 whatever the demand drives it up to. That is point creep where the "finish" line keeps getting moved and it feels like you wont reach it. This is my understanding... but I don't understand how it works. I guess I just look at it as standing in line at Costco for a hot dog. More people might get behind me in the points game, but theoretically people shouldn't be cutting in front of me in point totals. .
Bonus systems don't have pt creep. Call it what you want, maybe pt devalue but it is not pt creep. You can draw with 1pt or a hundred pts in a bonus system. You have to have the most pts to draw in a preference pt system.
Quote from: Bigshooter on April 10, 2015, 07:31:03 PMBonus systems don't have pt creep. Call it what you want, maybe pt devalue but it is not pt creep. You can draw with 1pt or a hundred pts in a bonus system. You have to have the most pts to draw in a preference pt system.Depends on the way you look at it. If the average points required to draw goes from 5 to 6 to 7, I still call that point creep. It's the same issue - demand exceeds supply and each year it's harder and harder to draw - just applied in a different draw mechanism.
Point creep = Idaho looks better and better every year. No points, only put in for 1oil or elk and deer, money up front so no one backs out.
Semantics. The principle issue is that your odds or frequency of getting a tag continue to diminish.
I did not read the entire thread. But do you realize this issue of point creep does not exist in Colorado so far as sheep goat and moose are concerned. Somebody challenge me on it and I might post the article explaining how the draw is different in Colorado for sheep goat and moose. Step 1. In a barn somewhere 10 digits 0-9 are hung on a wall. Step 2. Another set of digits 0-9 are selected one at a time. Pause for example. Step 1. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 are hung on a wall in order. Step 2. Some randomly picks a digit from a second set. Perhaps they pick the digit 3. Then the digit three gets hung under the 0 digit from step 1. Perhaps the next digit randomly drawn from step 2 is a 7. Then 7 gets hung under the digit 1 from step 1. So on and so forth. End example. Step 3. Your application number is coded by converting your app number to a new app number using the sequencing process in steps 1 and 2. For example if your app number was 37xxxxxxxx then your decoded app number would be 01xxxxxxxx. Step 4. Your decoded app number is reversed. For example. xxxxxxxx10. Step 5. The number generated in step 4 is divided by the number of preference points you have. Step 6. The lowest number after step 6 gets the tag. Let me know if you want me to reference the article. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Quote from: idahohuntr on April 11, 2015, 10:47:12 PMSemantics. The principle issue is that your odds or frequency of getting a tag continue to diminish.And they continue to diminish while the perception is that they actually increase. I liked the old days when you could put in for one draw per species. You had to do some choosing then, but your odds of getting drawn were way better. Some of the draws today get way more action than they would because you can put in for each category of each species. If you had to choose between quality buck, doe, any season, second deer, or buck deer tags, plus you only got to make one choice as far as hunt in whatever category you put in for, a lot of the draws become less popular and were fairly easy draws.Preference point systems weren't put in place to make it easier for hunters to draw. They were put in to make you perceive it was easier to get drawn with the real reason of making more money for the State. It's as simple as that. They appeal to your greed (ie making you think points give you an advantage) while slipping your wallet out of your back pocket. This works the same way all good cons do.
Quote from: idahohuntr on April 11, 2015, 10:47:12 PMSemantics. The principle issue is that your odds or frequency of getting a tag continue to diminish.You odds never change in a preference pt system they are 0% until you have enough pts to draw. So in a preference pt system your odds get better. Pt creep just adds a couple years on to how many pts you need until you draw. It's nothing like a bonus pt system where you can draw with fewer pts than what the average pts draw are. Those average pts draw numbers are fools gold. They are some of the reason why people get mad that they didn't draw in a bonus pt system.When those average pts in WA guarantee me a tag then I will consider it pt creep. But when someone can draw with less than the averge pts it isn't pt creep.
Point creep is at play in WA as well. For example, in 2012, if you applied for a quality deer Entiat MF tag with 10pts your odds were approximately 2%. In 2014, with 10 points for the same hunt your odds were 1%. Now here is the kicker...the guy with 10 pts in 2012 had 2% draw odds, in 2014 with 12pts, his odds of drawing the tag are 1.5% As more "points" are added to the system your odds go down and the value of each point diminishes at a rate greater than your individual increase in points/odds.The bottom line here is that point systems are 110% a ponzi scheme. You get in on the base level or you are SOL. And really, even those on the base level are fighting a losing game. One last bit of advice...never invest or do business with anyone who has something positive to say about point systems