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Author Topic: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance  (Read 3090 times)

Offline bearpaw

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Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
« on: April 01, 2023, 09:05:43 PM »
I was researching something else and stumbled onto this interesting story:

Quote
If you have zero points you have a .004% chance of drawing a tag. If you have max points (16) you have a 2% chance at drawing. Yikes! 16 years worth of buying points all for 1.5% better odds than someone with zero points.

full story: https://blog.eastmans.com/the-most-coveted-deer-permit-in-montana-that-you-will-never-draw/

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Offline kentrek

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Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
« Reply #1 on: April 01, 2023, 10:02:56 PM »
The premiums..where points go to die

I think one could argue in states that don't have a preference for longterm applicants to go short term on the draw strategy

Offline huntnphool

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Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
« Reply #2 on: April 01, 2023, 11:17:53 PM »
 There are 180 bucks in general hunt areas! :twocents:
The things that come to those who wait, may be the things left by those who got there first!

Offline Dan-o

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Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
« Reply #3 on: April 01, 2023, 11:23:20 PM »
There are 180 bucks in general hunt areas! :twocents:

Where?

Feel fee to PM me.   :chuckle:
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Offline huntnphool

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Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
« Reply #4 on: April 01, 2023, 11:26:03 PM »
There are 180 bucks in general hunt areas! :twocents:

Where?

Feel fee to PM me.   :chuckle:

 :chuckle:
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Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
« Reply #5 on: April 01, 2023, 11:35:09 PM »
There are 180 bucks in general hunt areas! :twocents:

That's true, but not as many of them as in draw areas.
Americans are systematically advocating, legislating, and voting away each others rights. Support all user groups & quit losing opportunity!

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Offline huntnphool

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Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
« Reply #6 on: April 01, 2023, 11:38:37 PM »
There are 180 bucks in general hunt areas! :twocents:

That's true, but not as many of them as in draw areas.

 Agreed, but if your odds are .004% to draw the permit, does it really matter? :chuckle:
The things that come to those who wait, may be the things left by those who got there first!

Offline bearpaw

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Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
« Reply #7 on: April 02, 2023, 07:09:42 AM »
There are 180 bucks in general hunt areas! :twocents:

That's true, but not as many of them as in draw areas.

 Agreed, but if your odds are .004% to draw the permit, does it really matter? :chuckle:

Certainly not regarding that unit and many others where the trophy potential isn't really all that much greater.
Americans are systematically advocating, legislating, and voting away each others rights. Support all user groups & quit losing opportunity!

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Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
« Reply #8 on: April 02, 2023, 08:33:46 AM »
Same as a lottery. Hope that you win, just don't expect it.

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Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
« Reply #9 on: April 02, 2023, 08:40:40 AM »
Technically its 37,500% better odds but still 1 out of 50 chance.

Offline bearpaw

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Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
« Reply #10 on: April 02, 2023, 09:16:04 AM »
If you can afford to buy 160 acres in that unit you can qualify for one of the landowner tags, small price to pay....
Americans are systematically advocating, legislating, and voting away each others rights. Support all user groups & quit losing opportunity!

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Offline actionshooter

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Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
« Reply #11 on: April 02, 2023, 09:24:11 AM »
There are 180 bucks in general hunt areas! :twocents:

That's true, but not as many of them as in draw areas.

 Agreed, but if your odds are .004% to draw the permit, does it really matter? :chuckle:

It does if you are putting in Washington... LOL  :chuckle:

Offline huntnphool

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Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
« Reply #12 on: April 02, 2023, 05:14:06 PM »
There are 180 bucks in general hunt areas! :twocents:

That's true, but not as many of them as in draw areas.

 Agreed, but if your odds are .004% to draw the permit, does it really matter? :chuckle:

It does if you are putting in Washington... LOL  :chuckle:

 :chuckle:
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Offline 444Marlin

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Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
« Reply #13 on: April 02, 2023, 08:35:48 PM »
I'm too old and late to the party get in the points game for a lot of hunts.  And laws are changing each year where non-residents allocations are getting worse.  It's probably best to enjoy those general season hunts while I can, and save up for outfitted hunt with the money I'd put towards building points.

Offline Onewhohikes

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Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
« Reply #14 on: April 02, 2023, 09:18:20 PM »
I must admit I have applied for that tag on several occasions

Offline HUNTINCOUPLE

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Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
« Reply #15 on: April 02, 2023, 09:52:05 PM »
Can't beat em join em. 160 acres and your set...........
Slap some bacon on a biscut and lets go, were burrnin daylight!

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Offline Dan-o

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Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
« Reply #16 on: April 02, 2023, 10:05:37 PM »
So what does 160 acres in this area cost?
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Offline 300rum

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Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
« Reply #17 on: April 03, 2023, 06:29:09 AM »
Before or after the television show?

So what does 160 acres in this area cost?

Offline Dan-o

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Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
« Reply #18 on: April 03, 2023, 06:49:49 AM »
Before or after the television show?

So what does 160 acres in this area cost?

I'll bite. 

What show?
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Offline boneaddict

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Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
« Reply #19 on: April 03, 2023, 07:51:53 AM »
I didnít click the link, but Iím going to guess 270.   Iíve thought about going there to photograph.

Offline nwmein199

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Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
« Reply #20 on: April 03, 2023, 08:04:26 AM »
Before or after the television show?

So what does 160 acres in this area cost?

I'll bite. 

What show?

Yellowstone

Offline nwmein199

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Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
« Reply #21 on: April 03, 2023, 08:05:31 AM »
I didnít click the link, but Iím going to guess 270.   Iíve thought about going there to photograph.

I was elk hunting there in September and saw several B&C bucks it was incredible. Sheep, bears, moose, elk, deer it was a fun area

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Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
« Reply #22 on: April 03, 2023, 08:31:03 AM »
Before or after the television show?

So what does 160 acres in this area cost?

I'll bite. 

What show?

Yellowstone

Thanks.
I should have known.
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Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
« Reply #23 on: April 03, 2023, 08:45:52 AM »
Before or after the television show?

So what does 160 acres in this area cost?

I'll bite. 

What show?

Yellowstone
Itís not even close to where Yellowstone is set


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Offline nwmein199

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Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
« Reply #24 on: April 03, 2023, 09:03:24 AM »
Before or after the television show?

So what does 160 acres in this area cost?

I'll bite. 

What show?

Yellowstone
Itís not even close to where Yellowstone is set


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The ranch they shoot at for the show is just south of Darby called Chief Joseph Ranch. They film all over that area. Half of Darby is in unit 270, other half if unit 240. That is why there is a police car in front of the ranch. So many people stop to take pictures at the "Yellowstone Ranch" that it causes traffic issues
https://www.google.com/maps/@46.0018984,-114.1666212,3a,72.2y,283.74h,82.11t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1sjI3d3LYxToM6CFr_SHDbMQ!2e0!6shttps:%2F%2Fstreetviewpixels-pa.googleapis.com%2Fv1%2Fthumbnail%3Fpanoid%3DjI3d3LYxToM6CFr_SHDbMQ%26cb_client%3Dmaps_sv.tactile.gps%26w%3D203%26h%3D100%26yaw%3D193.86969%26pitch%3D0%26thumbfov%3D100!7i16384!8i8192
« Last Edit: April 03, 2023, 09:18:13 AM by nwmein199 »

Offline bearpaw

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Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
« Reply #25 on: April 03, 2023, 09:27:56 AM »
Its amazing how busy that highway in the valley is anymore!
Americans are systematically advocating, legislating, and voting away each others rights. Support all user groups & quit losing opportunity!

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Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
« Reply #26 on: April 03, 2023, 01:28:20 PM »
There are 180 bucks in general hunt areas! :twocents:

200Ēers too I hear  ;)
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Offline snake

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Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
« Reply #27 on: April 03, 2023, 04:21:40 PM »
about the same odds or better than most Washington quality deer and elk hunts, and im not being sarcastic.

Offline vandeman17

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Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
« Reply #28 on: April 03, 2023, 04:28:27 PM »
about the same odds or better than most Washington quality deer and elk hunts, and im not being sarcastic.

 :yeah:  .004% doesn't sound too bad
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Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
« Reply #29 on: April 03, 2023, 05:31:38 PM »
The best part about this permit is that everyone who applies for it as first choice has officially blown all chances of drawing another permit. Meaning if you simply choose another permit as your first choice you have much better chances of drawing than any quality tag in Washington.

Montana only uses the point system on first choices.

Offline huntnphool

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Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
« Reply #30 on: April 03, 2023, 10:38:30 PM »
There are 180 bucks in general hunt areas! :twocents:

200Ēers too I hear  ;)

Shhhhh :rolleyes:
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Offline idaho guy

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Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
« Reply #31 on: April 04, 2023, 05:34:46 AM »
about the same odds or better than most Washington quality deer and elk hunts, and im not being sarcastic.

 :yeah:  .004% doesn't sound too bad



  So youíre telling me thereís a chance? I have put in for this unit a couple times. In Montana there is not a lot of good limited deer units besides this one. so I normally just pass on the le units for deer and just apply for elk limited entry

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Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
« Reply #32 on: April 04, 2023, 08:51:20 AM »
I quit applying for special draws in MT several years ago.  The draw odds are horrible and if you draw the general you have already drawn both a Quality and Multi-Season using WA lingo.

 


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